Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 9-19-2024
Race 1
7 – L’Imperator – He has finished in the money in seven out of his last nine races, winning two of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Evie’s Prince – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Freddy Flintshire – He ran 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 5F workout on Sep-14.
Longshot:
1 – Hidden Path – He has finished in the money in his last three races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Going Country
Race 2
1 – Durante – He won his last race at Aqueduct; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Sheriff Bianco – He finished 3rd in his last race, trained by Linda Rice who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Factually Correct – He ran 2nd in his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Little Vic – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Runninsonofagun
5 – Twenty Four Mamba
Race 3
1A – Passive Management – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Gun Barrel City – He is a first-time starter breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
2- Stop the Press – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters
Longshot:
4 – Mr Flowers – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Party With Smarty
7 – First Trumpet
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4/4,5,7,8/1,4/2,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 4
5 – Skylander – He has finished in the money in his last four races, finishing 3rd in the last start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Empty Tomb – He won his last race at Saratoga, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
8- Nimitz Class – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
4 – Rocco Strong – He finished 2nd at Saratoga and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – St Andrews
1A – Khafre
Race 5-Female
4 – Bobby Jean – She won her last race at Saratoga by nine lengths and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Princess Becca – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Sep-12.
5 – Elliptic – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Duckphat – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Moonlit Weekend
Bet: $2.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,5,6
Race 6
8 – Egyptian Quest – He switches to a high % jockey, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer.
9 – My Life Story – He has the highest last race speed rating, can improve while returning to a sprint and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Mazzei – He finished 4th beaten only 2- lengths vs similar in his last start after leading for a lot of the race at a 1-1/6 and now cuts back to 6-furlong which should help and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Starsinthecity – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% when taking a horse from a maiden-to-maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
3 – Price Is Truth
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,7,8,9 /2,7,10,11/5/2,5,6,9,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
11 – Kick a Buck – He tried the dirt on a muddy track in his last race and finished poorly and returns to today’s race on the turf where he won the previous race, he is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Irad Ortiz.
10 – Born Dancer – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – More Vino – He has finished in the money in his three career races, winning two of the starts and his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
Longshot:
2 – Front Man – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 8-Female
5 – A Maize Zing Dotie – She has won two out of her last three races, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the Allowance races he has a horse competing in in the and she has a high % and jockey.
2 – First Class Cat – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 63% of the races, winning 38% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 60% of the races.
8 – Mybronxbaby – She has finished in the money in five of her six career races, winning four of the starts, tried turf in her last race and did not like it and returns to dirt that is more to her liking.
Longshot:
6 – Flight Control – She has won one race out of two starts at Aqueduct, drops in class today and Lasix is added.
Alternate:
4 – Fabulous Fox
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #5 – $6.00 DD: 5/5,6,9,10
Race 9-Female
5 – Bourbon Milk Punch – She ran 2nd vs similar in only start, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning and trainer who wins 37% of the races he has a horse run in its 2nd grass race.
10 – Pretty Liza – She finished 3rd vs similar in only start and she has high % winning jockey Frankie Dettori.
6 – Every Vote Counts – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and her Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Yesterday – She ran 6th vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Panache
3 – Bossy Pants
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #5,6,9,10
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race -#5 – A Maize Zing Dotie
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 2 ½ Mile Jumpers
1 – HIDDEN PATH
7 – L’IMPERATOR
6 – FREDDY FLINTSHIRE
3 – EVIE’S PRINCE
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: 1-7 Mostly Fair, 8+ Best by a Lot
6 – FACTUALLY CORRECT – small drop, plenty of speed, ITM 9/11 at AQ
4 – LITTLE VIC – 3rd up after faster fractions last – Irad rides
1 DURANTE/ 1A STAGE LEFT – either of the entries can win – 2 for 1 special
2 – SHERIFF BIANCO – most consistent high floor, low ceiling type
Race 3: 1 1/8 Miles Outer Turf – Bias: 3 Races, Early Speed, 1 w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3
1A PASSIVE MANAGEMENT/ 1 TAKE YOUR SEATS –1A +9 TOTAL PACE – 1 only with a PAR race
2 – STOP THE PRESS – chance to improve in 3rd up – definitely consistent
3 – GUN BARREL CITY – first timer with strong breeding for tr Todd Pletcher, back bullet
4 – MR FLOWERS – chance go forward and maybe steal this on the lead with the right fractions
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
7 – EMPTY TOMB – a lot of upside, when he breaks fast does best, Kendrick will definitely send
5 – SKYLANDER – very aggressive LS edge over the rest and should not be too far from the pace here
3 – ST ANDREWS – drops in class after being better in the first ½ mile last out
1A – KHAFRE/ 1 – CELESTIAL GLAZE – another 2 for special
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
1 – PRINCESS BECCA – 2nd by a neck at this level last out – getting the lead is the key
9 – SAVE US MELANIA – resume says 2nd up will be better than the 1st – won by 6 ¼ last out
5 – ELLIPTIC – another where her history says she should improve, maybe a lot, in the 3rd up
4 – BOBBY JEAN – maybe the most upside with only three races to date – better race to race
Race 6: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
7 – STARSINTHECITY – only MSW dropper – have to have him – tr Linda Rice 34% on the drop
9 – MY LIFE STORY – better ATB in last and faster by about a second – maintenance work since
8 – EGYPTIAN QUEST – going to attract $$$ with Irad riding – sketchy 1st up record
4 – BRACA – going to try turf for the first time – PPs show he lost to plenty horses that came back to win next out
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
6 – OUR COUNTRY – most consistent in the race – will be closing
4 – FEATHERS ROAD – left arrow horse with +6 ES edge – 3rd up and 5 works between races
5 – MODICA – SIM FAV and just need to rerun last at Saratoga – 4 works since
10 – BORN DANCER – probably been facing the toughest comp – outside post hurts
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Best
6 – FLIGHT CONTROL – speed, 1st Lasix, plenty of headroom in 3rd career start
5 – A MAIZE ZING DOTIE – all or nothing on fast dirt 9/5-0-0 – faster early fractions at 6f v 5 1/2
2 – FIRST CLASS CAT – if she is going to win it’s going to be at 6f – 5/3-0-0 – 5/0-1-1 at any other
9 – CAROL T – best races come after some rest – that’s today
Race 9: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fairm 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
5 – BOURBON MILK PUNCH – improves at all from debut and the rest are running for 2nd
6 – EVERY VOTE COUNTS – best of the 1st timers – IMO
9 – YESTERDAY – another that just needs typical 2nd race improvement – switches to Irad
10 – PRETTY LIZA – same story as the 6 – missed by a neck in debut
