Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Charles Town: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Belmont at the Big A Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Belmont at Aqueduct – 9-26-2024
Race 1-Female
5 – Stunner – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Hay Evabody – She finished 3rd in her only start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Wind Flower – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% of the races with 1st time Starters, she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-20.
Longshot:
4 – Bottomless Mimosa – She is a first-time starter whose Breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-20.
Alternate:
2 – Found Grace
Race 2-Female
6 – Athena Beach – She has finished in the money in nine of her ten career starts, winning five of the races and finishing 2nd in the last start.
5 – Mosienko – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey, the highest speed figure at today’s distance, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Gone and Forgotten – She is always in the mix finishing in the money in her last six races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Clover Street – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Foxy Cara
$.50 Pick 4: #5,6/1,7,8,10/4,5/2,5,7,8,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
1 – Amplitude – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his only start as the heavily bet in favorite, he has a high % winning and trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-20.
7 – Daybright Delights – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8- New York Scrappy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Patronage – He has high % winning trainer Todd Pletcher and has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz and Lasix is added.
Race 4-Female
5 – In the End – She has won her last three races and she has a high % winning jockey and she has a 3F bullet workout on Sep-19.
4 – Beautiful Thief – She won her last race at Saratoga and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Linarite – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Quick Power Nap – She finished 2nd at Saratoga and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – She Takes Cash
Race 5-Female
2 – Sendera – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the maiden claiming races that she has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Dream On Cara – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and blinkers are added today.
5 – Nikki Brainburst – She has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – When Your Strange – She is a first-time starter, whose Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning and trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Steppin’ Hawk
9 – Dreaming of Carli
$.50 Pick 4: #2,5,7,8,9,10 /2,3,6/1,6/2,3,5,10 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $2.00 Exacta Box: #2,5,7,10
Race 6-Female
6 – Whatlovelookslike – She has finished in the money in eight out of her last ten races, winning four of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Marvelous Maude – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Sep-16.
3 – Silver Skillet – She has won two of her last three races, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the Non-Graded Stakes races he has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Moonage Daydream – She has won three out of five starts at Aqueduct and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Can’t Fool Me
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #6 – $6.00 DD: 6/1,6,9,13
Race 7
1 – Tabeguache – He ran 2nd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 40% clip, his early speed running style helps his chances so the shorter distance may help and he has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Blazing Sevens – He received a 106-speed rating in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9- Full Screen – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
13 – Rocket Can – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-20.
Alternate:
7 – Lost Ark
Race 8
10 – Reverend Moon – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Be There – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, switches to a high % jockey and he has a high % winning trainer.
3- Sassy Allie – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Betta Go Go Go – He finished in the money in ten out of thirteen career races and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd start with the trainer.
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,5,10
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race -#6 – Whatlovelookslike
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 3/4 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, Inside Out
5 – STUNNER – any 2nd race growth and it could be an easy win
6 – HAY EVABODY – speed and fade in debut, a couple of maintenance works since = more stamina
2 – FOUND GRACE – sneaky longshot that gets to the edge of par in 2nd career start, best published work since
1 – WIND FLOWER – best of the first timers – 2.7/3 points
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Ealy Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Bad, 4+ Bonus
6 – ATHENA BEACH – goes w2w – Top TOTAL PACE +8
3 – GONE AND FORGOTTEN – won 8/15 at the distance, but not at AQ so far – maybe most upside
5 – MOSIENKO – first up with solid works for new Dutrow barn, first up record is spotty but 21 % for Dutrow off the claim
4 – FOXY CARA – longest shot in a 5 horse race
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Ealy Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Big Inside Outside Bias
1 – AMPLITUDE – 2nd race improvement gets the job done
7 – DAYBRIGHT DELIGHTS – just missed at this level last out
10 – PATRONAGE – well be in Toga debut at a 2 yo last August -returns 1st G and L – probably the most upside in the race
8 – NEW YORK SCRAPPY – just missed at 1 mile in his last, extra 1/16 would have been the difference
Race 4: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Ealy Speed, 6/12 w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
Wide open race
9 – LINARITE – really close in the last 5 races – extra ½ furlong helps here
11 – KANT CALL IT – plenty of early gas, and been backed by the bettors in every race
4 – BEAUTIFUL THIEF – maybe the most upside in 3rd career start
5 – IN THE END – lone EP type and switches to Irad – faster fractions in last
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Ealy Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Bad, 4+ Bonus
7 – WHEN YOUR STRANGE – no choice but to start here with the 1st timer as none of the other have hit par, and most are way, way off
10 – DREAM ON CARA – resume says boom or bust in 2nd up – bullet work between races, so I’ll hope for boom
2 – SENDERA – been close and maybe enough to get there in 2nd up with a step forward, but regressed badly in only other round 2
5 – NIKKI BRAINBURST – tough call over the 9, but more upside in 3rd career start
Race 6: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 0/2 w2w – PP: All from 4+
Wide open
7 – MOONAGE DAYDREAM – winner 3/5 on AQ grass, resume says 2nd up as good maybe a touch better – last win again
3 – SILVER SKILLET – can make explosive mid moves and follow it up with above average LP
2 – MARVELOUS MAUDE – been awhile since this one made 2 starts in a row – finally health angle
6 – WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE – really consistent performer and much better EP in last
1 – BUSY MORNING
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bais: Early Speed, 4/10 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Bad, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – BLAZING SEVENS – undefeated in 2 at AQ – rerun last race at Toga and 3/3 is a wrap
2 – WINIT – speed, Kendrik and 2nd up record says to expect a nice bounce up today
13 – ROCKET CAN – 2nd by a neck at this level last out – three sharp works since
9 – FULL SCREEN – doesn’t look like it on paper, but chance to be pacesetter – runs his best upfront
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Ealy Speed, 6/12 w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Best
10 – REVEREND MOON –pure MSW dropper – with some ES and more stamina in 2nd up
5 – BETTA GO GO GO – only horse with a par race – faster fractions last out
2 – BE THERE – rerun his last race and it’s graduation day – Irad on today
7 – GENERAL AGENT – first timer that you have to give a chance vs the rest of these
