The wait is over. Belmont Park is back.

Friday marks the Grand Re-Opening of Belmont Park, and Tom and Rich take on the entire nine-race card with perhaps as many questions as answers.

A newly reopened racetrack creates a handicapping puzzle we rarely encounter. How will the new surfaces play? Will early speed hold? Will closers have enough time to make their runs? Are there post-position advantages that won’t become apparent until horses actually start racing?

Then add a card loaded with maidens and lightly raced horses, and previous track profiles aren’t going to provide all the answers.

Tom attacks the card through traditional form, trips, workouts, trainer intent, class and potential improvement. Rich’s Ranks bring Smart Sheets into the equation with PAR, second-race Parability, Total Pace, C-ZONE, late-speed advantages, first-timer ratings and improvement potential.

And sitting in the middle of the card is an international star: Forever Young.

Nine races.

A brand-new Belmont Park.

And absolutely no reason to assume we already know how it’s going to play.

Let’s find out.

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Race 1: 1¼ Miles Inner Turf

22-1 Tom’s Tips

4 – Ifweonlyhavelove – she has not raced in one year. All races in Ireland with the best finish a second; she led late. She tried and failed in a Group Three race at the Curragh. That race was on a soft course. Okay workouts.

9 – Osmosis – she went off the favorite last time at Saratoga and ran fifth, passing tired horses, and was very wide. Best finish was a second-place finish in two races and a second-place finish by a neck at Gulfstream. This is the first time in her three-race career she is starting right back.

2 – One Bad Habit – did something different last time out; she went to the lead in a hard hold and finished last at the end of the race. Adds distance, but is she one of those types that has shown nothing until the last race? Big odds.

Tom’s Play: $1 Exacta Box 2-9-4; $2 Double 4-9 and 6

Rich’s Ranks

1 – MARY LOIS – best chance to run a Par Level Race – Prat and Brown

7 – STAND THE RAIN – resume says better, maybe much better in 2nd up

3 – RUNYON CANYON – Del Mar shipper with the most back class

9 – OSMOSIS – first time making 2 starts in a row – most LS

Race 2: 7 Furlongs

22-1 Tom’s Tips

6 – Winning Fashion – first-timer with a very fast starting gate workout.

3 – Luck Penny – showed some early interest in her first start, was bumped, and ran fifth, beating one horse. Four workouts in prep for this race.

12 – Davidson – had some issues at the 3/8th pole but still managed to run third, well beaten by six lengths. Drawn outside and adding distance. Should be a factor again.

14 – Buccherita – improved off last start even with trouble. Watch Odds.

Tom’s Play: $20 to Win on 6; $1 Exacta Box 3-6-12

Rich’s Ranks

7 – UNDER THE MOON – 2nd race Parability way past par

6 – WINNING FASHION – 1st timer with back and bullet and go

12 – DAVIDSON – 2nd rated 2nd race Parability

10 – MOM’S ON BREAK – 2nd rated 1st timer – tough call over the 11

Race 3: 6½ Furlongs Turf

22-1 Tom’s Tips

9 – Fiora – first-time starter who has workouts mainly offsite on the all-weather. She did have one turf workout at Saratoga. The trainer has been good with his two-year-olds, and the morning line odds are 4-1.

3 – Melodies – ran second in her first start at Monmouth. Workouts are good, and it gets moving late again.

7 – Blazing Beauty – first-timer with both dirt and turf workouts. The trainer has done well with two-year-olds this season, achieving a positive ROI.

Tom’s Play: $1 Exacta Box 3-7-9; $2 Double 3-9 and 9

Rich’s Ranks

11 – MIDRIFF PRINCESS – Top Rated 1ster with a BGO

6 – MARISKA – 2nd rated 1ster with a back bullet

9 – FIORA – 3rd rated 1ster – 625K horse

12 – INFLECT – rated a little below the 9 – Brown and Prat – 475K horse

Rich’s $1 Exacta Box: 6,9,11,12

Race 4: 1¼ Miles Inner Turf

22-1 Tom’s Tips

9 – Rothschild – won last time out, taking the lead from the inside post. What was the difference? Maybe being gelded. The trainer is very good second up in six months, with a 66% ROI. I could not find another true speed horse in the race, so running from the nine-post position, he should get a clean run to the lead.

8 – Early Adopter – he got going late to get third while a bit wide. This is a good placement for a positive result.

12 – Paros – I don’t like the post position, but he has a fast workout coming into this race and ran well in August at Saratoga. With a better draw, I would put him on top, but he will have work to do.

Tom’s Play: $20 to Win on 9; $1 Exacta Box 8-9-12; Double 9 and 7

Rich’s Ranks

10 – A BOURBON FOR TOBY – more than a length LS edge with +8 Top TOTAL PACE

11 – NOBLE CONFESSOR – most upside with the Top C-ZONE

8 – EARLY ADOPTER – solid chance to be plenty better in 2nd up – Franco/Brown

12 – PAROS – TLRSP# +3 – a pair of solid works between races prepping

Rich’s $2 Exacta Key Box: 10 / 6,8,11,12

Race 5: 1¼ Miles

22-1 Tom’s Tips

7 – Forever Young – a winner of the Breeders’ Cup, Saudi Cup, and Japan Dirt Cup, he is the one to beat. His last race was the Dubai Cup, where he finished second, and that was the best he could do. Interesting choice of prep race for the Breeders’ Cup.

4 – Phileas Fogg – speed is his game, but there is other speed in the race, and if the jockey sets a sensible pace like last time on the Suburban, he will be there at the end. He won by over ten lengths. He ran in this race last year and was third in a dead heat at Saratoga.

1 – Baeza – he likes to show up for an in-the-money run, but last time he didn’t start well and improved to fourth in the Whitney. He is not the best from the starting gate, but he will run on at the end.

Tom’s Play: PASS

Rich’s Ranks

7 – FOREVER YOUNG – scared everybody off? +12 on SIM SP#

4 – PHILEAS FOGG – a little more back class than FOREVER YOUNG and +14 TLRSP#

1 – BAEZA – more upside than the 2

2 – STARS AND STRIPES

Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf

22-1 Tom’s Tips

4 – Jaxer – terrible start last time out and ran third at Saratoga in a state-bred turf stakes race. He won the race before at Aqueduct on the turf. Barring issues, big chance here.

5 – A Little At First – missed by a neck last time out after taking the lead. In the race before, he was wide on the first turn and could only finish third. He will show early pace and has an excellent chance.

8 – Inspeightofcharlie – on a good run of form at Saratoga with a win and a second as the favorite. He is six out of eight in-the-money finishes on the turf.

Tom’s Play: $1 Exacta Box 4-5-8

Rich’s Ranks

8 – INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE – biggest in race advantage +6 LS

5 – A LITTLE AT FIRST – should be out front and enough LS to finish

3 – CONMAN – most upside in the race and should get a good trip

12 – MIZTERTONIC – super consistent – ITM 7/9 at the distance – 2 sparkling works

Rich’s $.50 Pick 4: 3,5,8,12 / 11 / 1,2,6 / 1,5,6,7

Race 7: 1 Mile

22-1 Tom’s Tips

11 – Card Man – he ran well in his first start, running second with some shifting around in the running. An outside draw does not help, but he gained experience in the first try.

6 – Cybersteel – ran on for second in his first start and misbehaved behind the gate. So, even with the nonsense, he did well enough. Brad Cox trained.

13 – Louden – draws into the race with an interesting first start, ran a bit early, got in trouble, and never recovered, finishing last. Better trip today from the outside.

Tom’s Play: $1 Exacta Box 6-11-13

Rich’s Ranks

11 – CARD MAN – high stakes level 2nd Race Parability

2 – E Z SPEAKER – 2nd best 2nd Race Parability just 1 point better than…

6 – CYBERSTEEL – 3rd best 2nd Race Parability – drops in class vs the 2 rising in class

3 – GRAND LARCENY – tough call over the 1 – but we’ll give the 1st timer a crack

Race 8: 6½ Furlongs

22-1 Tom’s Tips

11 – Sea Vista – returns to the dirt and has won and run second in those races recently. His turf experience last time out is forgettable. He will be running at the end with some pace.

8 – Neigh Baby – he ran third last time with some trouble late, losing by one length. He broke his maiden at Saratoga at this distance. In good form and will be running late.

4 – Barker – claimed for $50k three races back and won his next start as the favorite. In his last race, he ran a bit early and then faded out to run fourth. Linda Rice is very good with this type of horse.

Tom’s Play: $1 Exacta Box 4-8-11

Rich’s Ranks

1 – ART FAIR – should set the pace early and the Sep 4 work says he is ready

6 – MOMENTUM FILES – best combo of early and late speed and tied for the biggest drop

2 – MATH TUTOR – if the 1 doesn’t take the lead he does – 3 SP# increases – 2nd up Pop

11 – SEA VISTA – best average race on speed chart and grades out well on key Stats

Rich’s $2 Exacta Key Box: 1 / 2,6,11,12

Race 9: 7 Furlongs Turf

22-1 Tom’s Tips

11 – Garden of Grace – claimed last time out with a winning effort in the $50k maiden claimer. She has not raced since July, so she has time to get some workouts in. She has run seven times at the maiden level on the turf and has finished or won five times. A good place for a win.

9 – She’s Our Tiz – two starts this season. Her best effort was a fifth last time out, and she improved enough for me to consider. She will like adding a bit of distance today.

1 – Tuthilltown – you want a late runner; she is for you. First win was in a maiden claimer, three races back. Came from the clouds to second in her next start, and a fourth last time, running a bit wide. The inside draw is not favorable, but get her in position to go wide and fast at the end.

Tom’s Play: $20 to Win on 11; $1 Exacta Box 1-9-11

Rich’s Ranks

7 – LONG LEGGED QUEEN – most upside and Top C-ZONE and only PAR+>50

6 – MARIA CALLAS – Franco and Brown – seems to always have a problem – get a clean trip

5 – DANCINGWITHDESTINY – should be forward and Top TOTAL PACE

1 – TUTHILLTOWN – most late speed – but, the only horse with better EP/Fractions in last

Where Tom and Rich Agree

For a card filled with unknowns, there are several places where Tom’s traditional handicapping and Rich’s Smart Sheets approach arrive at the same horses.

In Race 1, both use Osmosis, with Rich noting that this is the first time she has been able to string two starts together.

Race 2 brings stronger agreement. Tom puts Winning Fashion on top and bets $20 to win, while Rich ranks the first-timer second with a Back Bullet and Go. Both also have Davidson prominently involved.

In the maiden turf sprint in Race 3, Fiora makes both lists. Tom puts the $625,000 first-time starter on top, while Rich has her third among a group of highly rated firsters.

Race 4 gives us agreement on Early Adopter and Paros, although neither makes the top spot for Rich.

Then we get to the star attraction.

Forever Young Comes to Belmont

There isn’t much disagreement about the horse to beat in Race 5.

Tom puts Forever Young on top.

Rich does the same.

And the Smart Sheets number jumps off the page: +12 on SIM SP#.

Rich’s question might tell the story better than anything else:

Scared everybody off?

Both Tom and Rich also rank Phileas Fogg second and Baeza third.

Race 6 produces another strong crossover. Tom has Inspeightofcharlie third, while Rich puts him on top with the biggest in-race advantage at +6 LS. Both also strongly use A Little At First.

In Race 7, the agreement gets even stronger. Card Man is Tom’s top pick and Rich’s top pick, with Rich showing high-stakes-level second-race Parability. Cybersteel also lands in both sets of selections.

Tom and Rich both use Sea Vista in Race 8, and they finish the Grand Re-Opening card with another shared horse in Tuthilltown, although Tom and Rich are both looking elsewhere for their top selection.

Welcome Back, Belmont Park

There will be plenty to learn.

How does the dirt play?

How do the new turf courses play?

Which posts matter?

Does speed dominate certain configurations? Do closers get every opportunity? Will the profiles change as more races are run?

Those answers won’t come from historical databases.

They’ll start coming from what happens today.

And that’s part of what makes the Grand Re-Opening of Belmont Park such an interesting handicapping card.

Tom brings the traditional form.

Rich brings the Smart Sheets.

Forever Young brings some international star power.

And Belmont Park finally brings the racing back home.

Welcome back, Belmont.