Belmont Park is back after taking the brunt of a nor’easter, but today’s eight-race card comes with a completely different handicapping challenge. Everything is off the turf, which means it’s time to find out what the new Tapeta surface is all about. How will speed hold? Will closers have an advantage? And which horses will transfer their dirt or turf form to the synthetic surface? Rich will use Smart Sheets to break down the numbers while we learn along with everyone else — because when the entire betting public is dealing with something new, there may be opportunities to find value.
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Rich’s Belmont Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – 1 w2w – 1 Stalker – both 4-7
1 – FOOLIN – YES horse = must have
6 – JOVEN – 1st timer with BB and BGO
7 – HORIZONTAL RAIN – 2nd rated 1ster barely over…
2 – SPAHI
Race 2: 7 ½ Furlongs – 1 Race w2w – PP: 2/3
5 – MISS LAO – pacesetter 3SP# increases with TLRSP# +5 – 5 ways better and drops
8 – LOOKS FIRST – Top TOTAL PACE +5 with the biggest in race edge +5 LS – Manny
9 – AH CA IRA – SIM FAV with as much upside as any and best PAR+
6 – HEAVENLY LIGHT – Pratt and Rice – could be forward with solid C ZONE
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – 1 w2w – 1 Stalker – both 4-7
4 – FIREBALLIN – strong SIM FAV – biggest in race edge of +6 LS -stands to improve 2nd up
6 – TRUE LEGEND – speed and 1st Lasix for potential pacesetter and Manny
7 – LIGHT FANTASTIC – winner 2 in a row – but they were on the lead – might not lead here
9 – STORMY BIRTHDAY – YES horse with strong PAR+ and switched to Flavien
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,6,7,9
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – 1 w2w – 1 Stalker – both 4-7
3 – DANGEROUS AFFAIR – best SIM SP# and AVG on Speed Chart with Top TOTAL PACE
5 – KAZ FARM GIRL – 3 SP# increases with TLRSP#+ 3 – resume says 2nd up looks like 1st
2 – COMBAT MOVE – both dirt races fit – toss the turf run last out
8 – MATERIAL GIRL – Franco and Brown – watch the board – off more than a year – the odds will tell you all you need to know
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – 3 Races, Early Speed, 0 w2w – 1 from 4-7, the other 2 from 8+
9 – IN FRONT RUNNER – YES horse dropping from State Bred MSW – repeat of debut wins
11 – PORTADOWN LAD – Tied for SIM FAV – YES horse, Longshot and Drops with upside
7 – CHRIS’S SONG – the last of the YES horse – got to have him
4 – MR R T – maybe -1 – first up is ? – but Kendrick and Tr Samsundar won 3/4 ITM 4/4 for +9.90 ROI
$0.50 Pick 4: ALL/3,7/8/1,4,10,11
Race 6: 1 Mile – Early Speed, 7 races. 2w2 – the other 5 up close, everything but 4-7
7 – GRAZIE – on the pace with TLRSP# +11 – could regress off career best and prior 2nd up
3 – SWEETEST PRINCESS – best Value in the race as SIM FAV and SIM SP#
1 – LADY ROSE – coming out of a 200K NGST – 2nd despite being 3 wide
6 – FAST AND FRISKY – tough call over the 2 – but Standout C ZONE and most upside
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – 2 Races, Stalkers, 1 from 4-7 and the other 8+
8 – GOLDEN TORNADO – 2nd race Parability and its walk in the park – been off for more than a year – but the works are strong – bullet and go
3 – MO THE MERRIER – improved in every race – but Manny gets off to ride the 8 after nearly a 5 length win
4 – SHOOT THE NICKEL – ran faster despite the going a little longer – SIM FAV
6 – CRITERIA – Prat and Brown – again – tough call over the 5 and 9 – but Prat off the 5 for this one
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Tapeta – who knows what to expect
10 – AMAZING GRACER – YES horse with the most upside – MSW dropper
11 – WHATTA WEEKEND – YES horse – Better 5 ways and dangerous if forward
4 – TWO CLICKS – another YES horse – much better in last
1 – ADROIT – Longshot YES that runs back to the only at the distance and you’ll regret not having her
