Belmont Park gives us eight races today with fast dirt, firm turf and deep, competitive fields that could make this a great card for finding value. Five routes and three sprints give us plenty of different race shapes to dissect, and this doesn’t look like a day when the favorites are simply going to march home. Rich will use Smart Sheets to compare SIM Odds, speed, pace, C-Zone and other key metrics as we hunt for the potential longshots hiding behind the obvious choices.
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Rich’s Belmont Park Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – CARPET CITY – YES horse with more upside in 3rd race
7 – J’RAY’S JEWEL – the other YES horse – better in the 2nd up
10 – DECIMAL POINT – 2nd race Parability – 3 works between races
9 – WELCOME ROAD – 2nd race Parability and had some issues in debut
$1 Double: 2,7,9,10/1,4,9
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs Inner Turf – Stalkers, 31% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
1 – BLAZING TIGER – TLRSP#+3 – could pop in 2nd up – standout C ZONE
9 – BAYFRONT – 3rd race bounce back horse and first time making 2 starts in a row
4 – JUBILEE PARADE – YES horse with strong PAR+ and only +50 – top TOTAL PACE
8 – WESEEULATOR – tough call over the 7 – YES hose better EP/Fractions
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,9/1,5,9/2,4,9/4,5,10
Race 3: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
9 – HILL ROAD – most upside, been facing tougher in Graded Stakes – off since BC
5 – SECURED LANDING – winner 8/12 at the distance – 3SP# Increases – Best C ZONE
1 – WHITE SMOKE RISING – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – has run well first up – a neck from 3/3
7 – DILGER – working well for first up – pacesetter
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – PUTONAHAPPYFACE – top closer by a little and drops
9 – SPINNING CLASS – next best closer with the Top TOTAL PACE and most upside
4 – ISLAND CHARM – last two at the distance on turf fit – 3rd best closer – Manny winning
7 – TWIRLY – tough call over a bunch of other – shows up in key stats and little better 2nd up
Race 5: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – LIBERTY’S SECRET – top TOTAL PACE with the most upside
10 – UNLOCK THE VALUE – biggest class dropper – Brown – Franco – 3rd career start
5 – PERUGIA – LS SIM FAV – Ness track riser might not win – but show up ITM a lot – TLRSP#+3 – standout C ZONE
2 – BASEBALL LADY – YES horse – should be forward – drops – speed and fade in last – improves – sometimes dramatically in 2nd ups
Race 6: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
9 – INTERLOCK EMPIRE – most dangerous as tight range – good works – 69% PAR+ best
2 – RUNGIUS – Rice and Franco with by far the most upside – she’s 34% on claim and drop
5 – POLAR BEAR PLUNGE – TLRSP#+5 – should be the same or better in round 2 off the sidelines
11 – OTTO NIPOTI – tough call over the 1 – who could win – but LS with SIM ODDS and Top TOTAL PACE – more ITM than win
$3 Exacta Key Box: 9/1,2,5,11
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Stalkers, Inside Out
3 – SALT SPARTAN – SIM and SIM ODDS fav – better mid/late Pace and faster early F
5 – BURNING BRIDGES – 3rd UP – great chance to be on the lead – LS needs the right fractions
9 – COUNTER MOVE – going to press early too with top TOTAL PACE
13 – TWOHONESTMISCHIEF – LS – AE trainers want in for a reason – sizeable drop
$3 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,5,9,13
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Inner Turf – Stalkers, Big Rail Bonus, 2+ Similar Discount
9 – NICKERSON – 2nd race PARABILITY back in Nov – MSW dropper – reasons to improve
5 – MYKONOS – just missed last out – consistent and scores Manny
8 – RICHIES LOVE – first on turf but the 2 mud runs were his best – great name
7 – MY MUNNY TALKS – both turf races fit and Flavien
$3 Exacta Key Box: 9/3,5,7,8
