Belmont Park delivers a Thursday card that feels more like a Saturday showcase, with six graded stakes packed into just eight races and ideal fast-and-firm conditions. Quality fields mean plenty of familiar names and obvious favorites, but they can also create opportunities when the betting public gets one wrong. Rich will put Smart Sheets to work breaking down speed, pace, race shape and SIM Odds as we search for vulnerable favorites, overlooked contenders and the value hiding on one of the strongest weekday cards you’ll see all year.
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Rich’s Belmont Park Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – 2 Races, Stalkers, 1 from 4-7 and the other 8+
4 – NEXT ON STAGE – most upside with the 9 with Top TOATL PACE+9
9 – PLEASANT EMBRACE – biggest dropper and standout C ZONE as Pacesetter
5 – L’ÉCLAIR – bad trip last out – switches to Flavien but 2nd up record is not so good
6 – LOVELY CHRISTINA – tough call over the 7 – but ranks better in almost every stat
$2 Double: 4,8/3,4,6,8,12
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – 2 Races, Outside Speed
6 – BOXED WINE – SIM FAV – 3SP# increases and resume says better in 2nd up
12 – JADORLINIJA – only horse with a PAR+ >50%
8 – HIGHER FORCE – most upside in the race – better EP in last – can run well 1st up
4 – NYCON – drops from a series of Gaded Stakes and gets 1st Lasix
$2 Exacta Key Box: 6/3,4,8,12
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – 2 Races, Stalkers, 1 from 4-7 and the other 8+
1 – SENZA PAROLE – 4SP# increases with TLRSP#+ 6 – first time making 3 starts in a row
5 – R DISASTER – out on the lead – better EP/Fractions and drops
2 – BEAUTY REIGNS – the other class dropper – as much upside as the 1 and 5 – better price
3 – MUNNINGS EXPRESS – top C ZONE and a YES horse vs Maybe -5 for the 4
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – 3 Races, Stalkers, looks fair PP wise so far
8 – SISTER TROIENNE – Top SIM SP# – open race – turf 6/4-1-0 – needs to be involved early
3 – CROSSOVER CAPITAL – top closer – best combo of Early and Late speed – better 5 ways
4 – HAND OVER HEART – Ortiz and Brown – won first turf despite checking at the start
7 – SHELZAWA – another Brown horse with Prat – a head and neck from winning 4/5
$2 Exacta Key Box: 8/3,4,6,7
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Inner Turf – 3 Races, 1 w2w – Strong Rail and 8+
6 – WARALO – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – could be on the pace
7 – TWENTY SIX BLACK – most upside in the race – first up record solid and nice works
5 – CREDITWORTHY – Brown and Prat – ITM 6/6 on Grass
10 – JEAN VALJEAN – winner 2 in a row – tough call over others – needs to be forward
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,7,9,10/2,8,9/1,5/9,10
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – 3 Races, Early Speed, 0 w2w – 1 from 4-7, the other 2 from 8+
8 – SENIOR OFFICER – 4 wins and 3 seconds, two of them by less than a length
9 – CRAZY MASON – super consistent – most LS with the best SIM SP#
2 – CONTRARY THINKING – SIM FAV – needs the lead – best chance to run a PAR race
1 – T KRAFT – tough call over the 4 – just a little better numbers
$2 Exacta Key Box: 8/1,2,5,9
Race 7: 1 ½ Miles Turf – No Races
1 – EL CORDOBES – any of his US race work – hard to bet against Appleby Invaders
5 – MINARET STATION – will be rolling, rolling, rolling at the end
6 – PROGRAM TRADING – better ATB in last – 4 solid works since and fires 1st up
2 – FAR BRIDGE – TLRSP#+4 with a standout C ZONE – better 5 ways
$5 Double: 1/9
Race 8: 1 ¼ Miles – 2 Races – Deep, Outside Closers
9 – KATHYNMARISSA – +9 LS edge where deep closers have won 2 of 2 – Standout C ZONE
10 – CATHEDRAL – on the other end – out front with best combo of EP and LP
3 – SUNLIT UPLANDS – just missed in US debut in a wide trip – move inside helps
2 – STORM MIAMI – longshot SIM FAV – could try to steal on the lead with modest fractions
$2 Exacta Key Box: 9/2,3,4,10
