Belmont Park Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Belmont Park on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Penn National
Belmont Park Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Welcometomyworld – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, she has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Balentina – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, she has a trainer who wins 31% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
4 – Accel Rose – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to dirt and to a sprint.
Longshot:
6 – Herecomes Scarlett – She drops in class today and has a decent workout.
Alternate:
6 – Georgie’s Ladies
3 – Germany Jayvo
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 1st race # 1,2,4 – 2nd race # 1,7 – 3rd race # 4 – 4th race #3 – 5th #2, 5,8,10,11,12
Race 2
7 – Caribbean – He drops in class today has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and a trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (9 4-0-2).
1 – Musical Heart – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer who in last 14 days has finished in the money in four out of five races, winning two.
6 – Swift Tap – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a trainer who wins 20% of the claiming races he has a horse in.
Longshot:
2B – Dontbelate – He won his last race at Aqueduct.
Alternate:
5 – Mister Winston
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race # 1,7 – 3rd race # 2,4 – 4th race #1,3.9 – 5th #2,5,8,10,11
Race 3
4 – Twice Smitten – She has finished in the money in her last four races, winning one, finishing 2nd vs similar in her last race and earning the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Gypsy Janie – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, was claimed by a trainer who wins 26% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Vallarand – She can either lead or come from off the pace to win a race.
Longshot:
5 – Carly Hustle – She drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on May-11.
Alternate:
1 – Trade Secret
6 – Redzilla
$3.00 Exacta Box 2-4
Race 4
3 – Anileate – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Heartburn – She showed early speed finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 18% of the route races.
1 – Miss Kristy – She won her last race, has jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (20 5-1-5) and a bullet 3F workout on May-09.
Longshot:
8 – Lost Luggage – She ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her last race, but her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and drops in class today.
Alternate:
2 – Into Touring
7 – Champagne Poetry
Bet: $1.00 Pick 3 – 4th race #1,3.9 – 5th #2,5,8,10,11 – 6th race # 3
Race 5
10 – Maddie’s Grace – She won her last race at Gulfstream Park and earned the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Bella Principessa – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths in her last start, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
5 – Bustin Bullet – She ran 2nd in her last race at Aqueduct as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Longshot:
11 – Perfect Senorita – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race after a slow break, winning the race before.
Alternate:
2 – Up Her Sleeve
12 – Lola Flo
Bet: – $.50 Pick 5 – 5th #2,5,8,10,11 – 6th race # 3 – 7th race # 4- 8th race #1,5,6 – 9th #2,8
Race 6
3 – Tough Street – She finished 3rd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Fireline – She won her last race easily, has been off for more than 6 months but has been regularly working out for her 2023 debut.
5 – Toned Up – She may improve while returning to dirt, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Lay the Groundwork – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
7 – Vienna Code
Bet: 6th race # 1,3 – 7th race # 4- 8th race #1,5,6
Race 7
4 – Following Sea – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Gun It – He ran 2nd in his last race, switches to high % winning trainer Linda Rice and the trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (9 4-0-2).
3 – Three Two Zone – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 4F workout on May-11.
Longshot:
5 – Chestertown – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
Alternate:
1 – Synthesis
Bet: $4.00 Exacta: # 4/6
Race 8
6 – Bahamian Club – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today has a high % winning trainer and a trainer / jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-3).
5 – Breeze Easy – She won her last race at Woodbine and has finished in the money in four out of five races at Belmont Park in the past.
1 – Mrs. Green – She has finished in the money in her last five races, winning two of the starts and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Sail By – She has won two out of three starts at Belmont Park, ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her last race and drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – Regal Realmbeaten
3 – Mischievous Dream
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,5,6 / 2,8
Race 9
8 – Dreaming of Carli – She is a first – time starter, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and today’s sprint distance, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Ortiz.
2 – Pauciloquent – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 25% of the 2nd grass race he enters the horse in.
1 – My Cara Mia Mine – She drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Gotham Gray – She switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Alternate:
5 – Queens Over Threes
3 – Giggling Ghost
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 1 race won by tactical speed from PP 2/3
4 – ACCEL ROSE – class drop off of early race improvement in last, flips back to dirt and shortening up
2 – WELCOMETOMYWORLD – TLRSP, finished a well beaten 2nd at this level, 3rd up after higher 2/4f pace#, also cuts back in distance, switches back to dirt and weight break – Kendrick on 4 instead of 2
1 – BALENTINA – flashed speed for the first time on the MSW drop to 40, maybe holds it longer at 20K
5 – HERECOMES SCARLETT – Trevor on a horse that should close on the class drop
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4/1,2,4/1,2,4,5,6
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: 4 races 100% Early Speed – 2 w2w – PP: 2/3 winner 3 of 4, and 1 for 4-7
7 – CARIBBEAN – drops in class after tying TLRSP# – strongest distance 12/5-3-0
1 – MUSICAL HEART – early speed with Kendrick, a combination that I like, 18f works since last race
6 – SWIFT TAP – the other to tie for TLRSP#, Michelle Nevin barn hot to start Belmont 7/3-1-1
3 – ROYAL REALM – maybe a horse for the course? Belmont 4/2-0-1, elsewhere 17/2-3-4
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7/2,4,5/3/5,8
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Winners Yet
4 – TWICE SMITTEN – third after a layoff, better pace and fraction in race 2 compared to race 1
2 – GYPSY JANIE – steady effort without any fall off in 1st up after a lengthy layoff, nice work in between, but second after a layoff record is shaky, but tr Robert Falcone 26% first off the claim
5 – CARLY HUSTLE – some of her best workouts prepping for the first start after a two month hiatus
1 – TRADE SECRET – high win rate rail after coming to life in second half of last race
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4,5/2,4,5/1,2,4,5,7
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf – Bias: 4 Races – Tactical Speed – 1 w2w – PP: 1 win 2/3 – the rest 8+
3 – ANILEATE – TLRSP# and just missed at this level at AQ, did have a trip on this track and held the lead on NEST but ended poorly – sidelined for more than a year after
7 – CHAMPAGNE POETRY – best EP/LP ranking – substantial drop in class, mixed bag in two turf races
8 – LOST LUGGAGE – going on turf for the 1st time Javier Caastellano is an excellent turf jockey – not a fan of the Parx to NYRA track riser
1 – MISS KRISTY – coming off of MCL 25k win at GP, nice Delaware Park work since
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3/1,7,8/1,4,5,7,8
Race 5: 7 Furlong Turf – Bias: 4 Races – Stalker/Closers – 0 w2w – PP: 2 from Rail, 1 from 2/3, 8+ for 1
8 – BELLA PRINCIPESSA – much better ATB in last, quick TO ran on May 12th and shortens up
5 – BUSTIN BULLET – BTN FAV in last, but not too disappointing as fractions were faster, maintenance work between and could be better in round 2 off the break
12 – LOLA FLO off since July, decent works including bullet and go at Laurel, might need one or two
2 – UP HER SLEEVE – we’ll go with Castellano on the grass again, in race upgrades last out and resume says second off a layoff should top first, shortening up helps here too
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 8,8,12/5,8/1,2,5,7,8,12
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 23% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Winners Yet
3 – TOUGH STREET – stepping up in class, but probably gets to the front and stays there
1 – FIRELINE – absolutely demolished the field in maiden score back in Nov – the works are steady and good – 1st Lasix helps
5 – TONED UP – drops in class, turf to dirt, shortens up, just doesn’t like to win at distance 12/0-2-4
2 – LAY THE GROUNDWORK – a couple of speed figure increases in a row, TLRSP# with good LP
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3/4,5/1,2,5,6,8/1,6,8,10,11
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 1 race won by tactical speed from PP 2/3
4 – FOLLOWING SEA – been off for more than a year – a legit graded stakes horse – if he’s ready – he lives up to the short price
3 – THREE TWO ZONE – first time gelded with some fast works since the snip
6 – GUN IT – been working fast at BP – fan of the distance 7/1-4-1, Jose and Linda Rice smoking winner 9/21 together
5 – CHESTERTOWN – nice race last out, cuts back in distance, Belmont 6/0-2-2
Race 8: 7 Furlong Turf – Bias: 4 Races – Stalker/Closers – 0 w2w – PP: 2 from Rail, 1 from 2/3, 8+ for 1
6 – BAHAMIAN CLUB – off since finishing 3rd in G3, both to beat her won since
2 – MISS CAROL ANN – breeding is too good to ignore – last ran in same race as the 6, first Lasix and 2nd US start the difference maker today
8 – REGAL REALM – w2w in her last, 3sp# increases, turf 5/2-1-1, moving up in class
5 – BREEZE EASY – hard call over the 1 as all of these have been off for a while, has shown she can fire fresh
1 – MRS. GREEN
Race 9: 6 Furlongs Inner Turf – Bias: 5 Race – Stalkers/Closers – 1w2w – PP: Blistering Rail so far, with 1 for 4-7 and 8+ each
1 – MY CARA MIA MINE -SIM overlay, hot rail, Castellano 2nd up, +10 LP edge – let’s do it
6 – GOTHAM GRAY – top pedigree for grass, exploded early in last and faded late, cutting back from 1 1/16 miles – those pace numbers here make her the winner
8 – DREAMING OF CARLI – not a lot left to beat in here, 1st timer and we mentioned how strong of a start Jose and Linda Rice are off to in the Belmont meet
10 – PUREST PERFORMANCE – going to take a little bit of a flyer here, pedigree numbers are 2nd best and the works are probably the best of the first timers
