We’re back at Belmont Park with eight races on fast dirt and firm turf, and today’s card comes with a challenge we love — half the races are maidens.
Four maiden races mean more unknowns, less established form and potentially more disagreement at the windows. That’s where digging deeper than the obvious numbers can become especially valuable.
Rich and Terry will put the Smart Sheets to work using Back Bullets, Bullet and Go, First Timer ratings, 2nd Race Parability, SIM Odds, speed, pace and improvement patterns to help make those ambiguous races a little clearer.
And outside the maidens, we’ll continue searching for pace advantages, vulnerable favorites and horses whose chances may be better than their odds suggest.
Download Today’s Smart Sheet: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/BEL_20261112_43a56e_HRT.pdf
Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf
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Race 1
1 Mile Stalkers – Rail Best, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
Terry’s Picks
6 – Blue Mountains: Switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of races dropping off claim; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.
8 – Senior Lender: Drops in class today; high % winning trainer who wins 30% in a horses 1st at route; Has a high % winning jockey; Bullet 4F workout (Oct-29).
5 – Gordy: Drops in class today; Best Dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
7 – Determinedfinisher: First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; High % winning trainer who wins 28% in Debut races at a 1m; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Sorrentino
Rich’s Picks
6 – BLUE MOUNTAINS – biggest in race edge +16 LS
5 – GORDY – ES +6 and a YES horse
2 – SORRENTINO – Lone MSW Dropper with standout C ZONE
7 – DETERMINEDFINISHER – will give the 1st timer a chance
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2,5,7
Race 2
7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Bonus, 2-7 Discount
Terry’s Picks
8 – Tap Rules: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating strong trainer and jockey stats and this combo in last 14 days (2 2-0-0).
2 – Term Premium: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Valentine Crusader: Ran 4th in last race as the favorite but has a High % winning trainer who wins 26% with beaten favorites; Strong jockey stats.
Longshot:
6 – Kaz Toro: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters.
Alternate:
7 – McRye
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,8/2,6/2,6,8/1,5,6
Cost: $18.00
Rich’s Picks
8 – TAP RULES – YES with TLRSP# +8 – better 5 ways
5 – VALENTINE CRUSADER – another YES horse with the most ES
2 – TERM PREMIUM – last of the YES horses and Biggest Dropper
6 – KAZ TORO – top Rated 1ster with a back bullet
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6,8/2,3,5/2,6,8,9/3,7
Race 3
1 Mile Turf – Closers, Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Discount
Terry’s Picks
6 – Coach Case: Can improve while returning to a route; has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% bringing beaten favorites back; Strong jockey stats.
2 – Salt Spartan: Finished 3rd in last race; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
3 – Diliello: Won last race at Belmont: Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
5 – Smilensaycheese: Finished 3rd (on Dirt) in last race; Highest last race speed rating; strong jockey stats.
Alternates:
7 – Blame It On K J
8 – Solo Empire
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,6
Cost: $30.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – SALT SPARTAN – most upside and SIM FAV / Top SIM Speed#
3 – DILIELLO – Top TOTAL PACE +6 – better EP/Fractions
5 – SMILENSAYCHEESE – TLRSP# +5 – small Z pattern with maintenance works since
6 – COACH CASE – has run well first up with a decent work pattern prepping
Race 4 – Female
6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Big Rail Edge, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
2 – Saintly Villain: Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race; High % winning trainer.
6 – Aerial Affair: Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW); Breeding suggests she will like the grass as Dam has 3 winners from 6 starters and 1 Turf winner.
8 – Shared Ambition: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Harpist: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Well, Bred
Alternate:
1 – Ready Set Roll
Rich’s Picks
6 – AERIAL AFFAIR – TLRSP# +7 for the experienced horses
2 – SAINTLY VILLAIN – 3rd race bounce back potential past par
9 – HARPIST – top rated 1ster
8 – SHARED AMBITION – 2nd rated 1ster and the rest are noes
Race 5
6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
1 – Kid Billy: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Unbroken Chain: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
6 – Neuschwanstein: Has high-percentage trainer and jockey
Longshot:
3 – Tenebris: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Alternates:
7 – Without Pretence
8 – Bootleg Runner
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,6/1,4,6/4,6/1,2,4,8
Cost: $48.00
Rich’s Picks
7 – WITHOUT PRETENCE – TLRSP# +6 with +8 LP and Top TOTAL PACE – drops – 2nd up
3 – TENEBRIS – standout C ZONE – SIM FAV with best PAR+
5 – UNBROKEN CHAIN – some of the most upside – right distance 3/9 and 1/11 at others
1 – KID BILLY – the most upside in the race – could be forward and biggest dropper
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,7/1,6/1,2,4,6/2,9
Race 6 – Female
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
Terry’s Picks
6 – Ganderella: Finished 3rd vs similar (on AW) in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Vicked: Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race.
1 – Take Charge Smarty: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Highest last race speed rating; Rail post is winning at 20% clip; Has high-percentage jockey
Longshot:
3 – Zap That Ghost: Drops in class today;.
Alternates:
7 – Tiz the Lady
8 – Run Flat
Rich’s Picks
1 – TAKE CHARGE SMARTY – 2nd race upside way past par – long layoff +7 ES
6 – GANDERELLA – most upside for the experienced horses
3 – ZAP THAT GHOST – standout C ZONE – and best turf breeding – strong PAR+
4 – VICKED – Top TOTAL PACE +8 – well bred for it
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 1/3,4,6,7
Race 7 – Female
1 ¼ Miles Inner Turf – Deep Closers – Outside Best, 2/3 fair, None from Rail
Terry’s Picks
4 – Stand the Rain: Won last race at Belmont; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
6 – Consensus View: Has a win at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Alibi: Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Longshot:
5 – Abigail: Finished 2nd last race; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Alternate:
7 – Tiz the Lady
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 4
$10.00 Exacta: 4/6
$10.00 Exacta Box: 4,6
$5.00 Exacta: 4/2,3,6
Cost: $65.00
Rich’s Picks
6 – CONSENSUS VIEW – really any of her turf races would work – top Turf Breeding
4 – STAND THE RAIN – TLRSP# +3 – with a little more upside
1 – BOBBY M’S GIRL – only YES horse with the most upside – rails stinks but only 8 races
2 – ALIBI – biggest in race edge +8 LS where deep closers win
Race 8
1 Mile Stalkers – Rail Best, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
Terry’s Picks
2 – Whitby: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race ñ Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Monte Avi: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Sociably Johnny: Rail post is winning at 24% clip; has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of Claiming races; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Supreme Good: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.
Alternates:
9 – The Obliterator
7 – Lucky Dragon
Rich’s Picks
2 – WHITBY – 1 of 2 Yes horse – SIM FAV – 3rd up
9 – THE OBLITERATOR – 1 of 2 Yes horse with the most upside – 2nd up
1 – SOCIABLY JOHNNY – resume says better in 2nd up
5 – RESILIENT HERO – biggest in race edge +7 LS – steady
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,9/1,2,5,9/1,2,5,7,9
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Belmont Park – Race 7 – #4 Stand the Rain
4 – Stand the Rain: Won last race at Belmont; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20.00 Win: 4
$10.00 Exacta: 4/6
$10.00 Exacta Box: 4,6
$5.00 Exacta: 4/2,3,6
Cost: $65.00
