Belmont Park gives us eight races today on fast dirt and firm turf, and there are a few likely heavy favorites that could prove very difficult to beat.
That changes the challenge. Not every race is about finding a horse to beat the favorite. Sometimes the Smart Sheets tell us the favorite deserves the attention — and the real opportunity is figuring out how to make money around them.
Rich and Terry will work through the card using SIM Odds, SIM Speed, pace, C-Zone, projected race shape and other Smart Sheets data to decide where the favorites look legitimate and, more importantly, where the betting public may be leaving an opportunity elsewhere on the card.
Can we uncover a price horse underneath a strong favorite? Is there an exacta or multi-race opportunity that offers better value? And which races give us the best chance to take a stand against the crowd?
You don’t have to beat every favorite. You have to make the most of the races where you have an edge.
Download Today’s Smart Sheet: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/BEL_20261015_8a716e_HRT.pdf
Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf
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Race 1
1 ¼ Mile – 1 Race – Early Speed, 4-7
Terry’s Picks
7 – Where’s Your Boom: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – In Front Runner: Highest last race speed rating; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Private Flight: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
1 – Mr R T: Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
2 – Go Dharma
Rich’s Picks
1 – MR R T – maybe too much early speed for the rest +8 ES – 3rd up
7 – WHERE’S YOUR BOOM – strong C ZONE – resume says some 3rd race upside
6 – PRIVATE FLIGHT – consistent – better EP/Fractions
3 – IN FRONT RUNNER – TLRSP# +6 with the most upside
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 1/ALL
Race 2
6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Outside In
Terry’s Picks
6 – Burninhunkoflove: 3rd vs. similar last race; highest speed figure at today’s distance; co-fastest dirt speed; high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Kid Billy: Finished 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Big Hat Willie: Won his only start at Belmont Park at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Private Desire: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternates:
2 – Trust Issues
9 – Stewie
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,6,8,9/2/3,5,6/1,2,6,7,9 – Cost $45.00
Rich’s Picks
5 – BIG HAT WILLIE – 3 SP# increases – SIM FAV that will be coming late – Standout C ZONE
8 – PRIVATE DESIRE – could be the pacesetter – bias fit – biggest drop
2 – TRUST ISSUES – will also be forward – top SIM SP# – drops
6 – BURNINHUNKOFLOVE – TLRSP# +6 – solid works since – 1st up?
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: ALL/2,4/5/1,7
Race 3
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, Rail and 8+ Best, 2-7 Almost Fair
Terry’s Picks
2 – Risk Tolerance: In the money in 8 of the last 10, with 3 wins; drops in class; highest speed figure at today’s distance; co-fastest turf speed; high-percentage trainer and jockey.
1 – Sherlock’s Jewel: Finished 3rd in last race; Blinkers added today; Top trainer and jockey win rate; Good 4F workout (Oct-09).
6 – Energize: Finished 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
3 – Tee At One: Finished in the money in the last 3 starts, winning 1 race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Decent workouts for his return.
Alternates:
4 – Capture the Flag
5 – Discreet Dancer
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 2
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1,2
$5.00 Exacta: 2/1,3,6
Cost: $55.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – RISK TOLERANCE – SIM SP# +8 – they win plenty – Top TOTAL PACE +6
4 – CAPTURE THE FLAG – standout C ZONE – could be on the lead here – seen better
6 – ENERGIZE – most upside – 1st on Grass went well – 3 really good works since
1 – SHERLOCK’S JEWEL – turf races fit – Sharp and Kendrick – +3.15 ROI
Race 4
6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Outside In
Terry’s Picks
5 – Math Tutor: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts, running 2nd in the last start; Drops in class today; May improve at the shorter distance; Has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Sea Vista: Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Bullet 3F workout (Oct-10); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Tartabull: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Helmet of Will: Won last race; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Alternates:
1 – Disparate Impact
4 – Bold Love
Rich’s Picks
5 – MATH TUTOR – another one of those +10SIM SP# types
6 – SEA VISTA – most upside in the race – will be closing – sharp 3f work – better start today?
2 – HELMET OF WILL – only 3 races – plenty of untapped potential – Cox and Prat
1 – DISPARATE IMPACT – nice run in last – strong bullet work prepping
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$3 Exacta Key Box: 5/1,2,6
Race 5
6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 2-7 Best, None from Rail, 8+ Discount
Terry’s Picks
1 – Ancient World: Won last race at Saratoga; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 41% of the races dropping off a win; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Tenebris: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Likes distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Apollo Code: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races Claiming races; has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – He’s Got This: Top trainer and jockey win rate; Can go the distance.
Alternates:
6 – Neuschwanstein
8 – Graywing
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7,9/1,3,6,7,9/4,5/1,9,10 – Cost $60.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – ANCIENT WORLD – rail sucks – Linda Rice Owner/ Trainer – won 5/12 dropping off a win
7 – APOLLO CODE – most upside – has run OK 1st up
4 – SIN NOMBRE – biggest class dropper – won last 1st up
2 – TENEBRIS – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – track riser
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,7/3,4,6,7/1,4,6/1,4,6,10
Race 6
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, Rail and 8+ Best, 2-7 Almost Fair
Terry’s Picks
7 – Motorcycle Cop: Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – Epic Prayer: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
6 – Cream and Crimson: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Santis: Drops in class today; Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters (but 0 Turf winners); Can improve at the longer distance; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Mindful of You
Rich’s Picks
6 – CREAM AND CRIMSON – most 2nd start upside – biggest in race edge of +9 LS
4 – CUYLLE – better 5 ways – TLRSP# +4
7 – MOTORCYCLE COP – move to Manny a hint that he could be ready?
3 – EPIC PRAYER – draws Flavien in 2nd start – needs a much better start
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 6/3,4,5,7
Race 7
1 Mile – Early Speed – Rail Discount, The Rest Good
Terry’s Picks
5 – Calling Card: 3rd vs. similar last race; highest speed figure at today’s distance; co-fastest dirt speed; high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Tuning In: Won 1 race out of 2 career starts; Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Probability: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 27% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Solo Jim: Finished in the money in 4 races out of the last 4 starts, winning 2 races; Can go the distance.
Alternates:
1 – Max Money
2 – Twohonestmischief
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$10.00 Win: 5
$5.00 Exacta Box: 4,5
$5.00 Exacta Box: 4,5,6
Cost: $50.00
Rich’s Picks
4 – TUNING IN – super strong PAR+ 3rd race rebound after slight regression
6 – PROBABILITY – biggest in race edge of +5 LS and top Total Pace Horse
1 – MAX MONEY – rail discount – but standout C ZONE for pacesetter
7 – SOLO JIM – volatile YES horse – SIM FAV and ranks well in smart stats
Race 8 – Female
6 Furlongs Inner Turf – Closers, Rail Best, 2-7 Solid, 8+ Struggle
Terry’s Picks
10 – Southern Kiss: 3rd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 24% with beaten favorites; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – R Kan’t Miss: Drops in class today; Best Turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed; Good 4F workout (Oct-10).
1 – Avalon Beach: Rail post is winning at 20%; Heavily Bet in debut; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Longshot:
6 – She’s Slick; First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; has a high % winning jockey.
Alternates:
7 – Coastal Beauty
4 – Perfect Flow
Rich’s Picks
1 – AVALON BEACH – 2nd race parability – 2 lengths past par
4 – PERFECT FLOW – Top Rated 1ster – back bullet
6 – SHE’S SLICK – 2nd Rated firster – back bullet
10 – SOUTHERN KISS – wanted to rank YES horses higher – but outside post hurts
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$3 Exacta Key Box: 1/4,6,9,10
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Belmont Park – Race 3 – #2 Risk Tolerance
2 – Risk Tolerance: In the money in 8 of the last 10, with 3 wins; drops in class; highest speed figure at today’s distance; co-fastest turf speed; high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20.00 Win: 2
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1,2
$5.00 Exacta: 2/1,3,6
Cost: $55.00
