It’s another fast and furious afternoon at Belmont @ the big “A”, and Rich is rolling solo with a full 10-race card loaded with value plays, pace advantages, and bias insights. The Smart Sheets point to a clear edge for early speed, but several races feature powerful closers ready to pounce when the pace collapses. Using TLRSP# ratings, C-ZONE indicators, and track bias data, Rich’s Parx Ranks highlight which horses are best positioned to win, place, or deliver double and Pick-4 value. Whether you’re building tickets or tracking trends, today’s card has opportunity written all over it.
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Terry’s Picks
Belmont at the Big A – 10 -23-25
Race 1
4 – Sir Kartrite – Trainer wins 23% when switching horses from turf to dirt; likely to improve on dirt; top jockey and impressive recent workout (Oct-16).
1 – Secured Lender – Last race winner at Saratoga with the fastest dirt speed today. Trainer wins 22% of claiming races; jockey has a high win rate.
3 – Turn and Count – Drops in class today: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Shoot the Nickel – She likes Aqueduct, finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 83% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
Alternate:
5 – Keep On Coming
6 – Tapwrits Temper
Race 2
2 – Up for an Oscar – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start. Has a high % winning trainer and has a high-percentage jockey.
5 – Wicked Improbable ran second at a mile last time and now steps up to 1-1/16; holds the highest recent speed rating, best turf speed in today’s field, and is ridden by a high-percentage jockey.
3 – Disclaimer – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout (Oct-17).
Longshot:
1 – Suspiciously Named: Placed in 3 of 4 Aqueduct starts, prefers this distance, and has turf speed above the average winner.
Alternate:
4 – Atomic Age
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5/2,4,8/6,8,10/3,5,7 – Cost $40.50
Race 3-Female
2 – Coquito – She had a lot of trouble in her last race and finished poorly so I will ignore that race. Drops in class today. Trained by a high-percentage trainer.
4 – Beira – Did not finish last race after trouble during the race, drops in class today switches to a high % jockey; she has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5F workout (Oct-01).
8 – Florida Flower – She has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Echo in Eternity – She switches to high% trainer Linda Rice and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – It Takes Heart– She has a high % winning jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Pistol Liz Ablazen
Race 4-Female
6 – Best Impression – In her last four starts, she has placed each time, including a second as the favorite. She now races with a trainer who wins 25% of the time when returning beaten favorites and switches to a successful jockey.
8 – She’s Cool – Finished in the money in 5 races at Aqueduct, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Sight to See: Drops in class today; shares top dirt speed among runners. Trained by a trainer with a 23%-win rate in claiming races and ridden by a top jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Stress Reliever – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and can improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
3 – Enigmatic
1 – Rodeo Star
Race 5–
3 – Grumblyrumhogan – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start, has a top-winning jockey and he has a good 3F workout (Oct-19).
5 – Diliello – Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 career starts, has a top-winning jockey and has a bullet 3F workout (Oct-15).
7 – Escape Hall – Breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Skip Forward – He is a First-time starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Helmet of Will
9 – Fort Griffin
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,5,7/5,7,9,11/1/1,2,4,5,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 6-Female
9 – Considerate City – She finished 2nd in last race, best turf speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and has a jockey have strong win rates.
5 – Coach of the Year – She’s a first-time starter bred for turf and route distances, with a top trainer and jockey.
11 – Neshika – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high-percentage winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Jetties – She is a First-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass. Both her trainer and jockey have strong win percentages.
Alternate:
12 – Starship Ava
Race 7-Female
1 – Higher Force – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race. Highest last race speed rating. Has a high-percentage winning trainer and she has a good 4F workout (Oct-15).
5 – Grace and Grit – Switches to a high% trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Capital Gal – She finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters. Jockey has a strong win percentages.
Longshot:
4 – Backcheck – Trainer wins 28% of dirt races, has a bullet 5F workout (Oct-01) and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
2 – Purpose
7 – Cara’s Dreamweaver
Bet: $20.00 Win: 1 – $10.00 Exacta Box:1/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 1/4,5,6 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,5,6
Race 8-Female
10 – Parade Ring – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs similar in last start. Trained by a high-percentage trainer and has a jockey have strong win rates.
1 – Kyla’s Kause – 1 win in 4 starts; trainer wins 17% of claiming races. Her top turf speed matches the fastest among today’s entries.
4 – Midnightloveaffair –Drops in class today; Has a high-percentage trainer who in the 14 days has won 3 races out of 3 starts.
Longshot:
2 – Tough Love Torres – Placed in both career starts with one win. Breeding and trainer stats point to turf success.
Alternate:
5 – Mac to Moore
Best Bet of the Day at Aqueduct – 7th Race – #1 – Higher Force
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 32% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Big Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Tough
5 – KEEP ON COMING – been off for more than a year, if he is ready has the class
1 – SECURED LENDER – coming off the Maiden win being better ATB – SIM FAV
2 – SHOOT THE NICKEL – a YES horse with the 1 – in 3rd UP – ITM 5/6 at the distance
4 – SIR KARTRITE – great chance to be out front and best C ZONE by a decent margin
$2 Double: 5/2
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Tough
2 – UP FOR AN OSCAR – any second race improvement could be hard to overcome
3 – DISCLAIMER – making three starts in a row for the first time – boom or bust
5 – WICKED IMPROBABLE – improved in both races post debut – two works between
6 – TEAM OF RIVALS – speed and fade in debut – more stamina today – 2nd race Parability
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3/2,4,5/3,6,8,10/2,3,6,7
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bais: Early Speed, 41% w2w – PP: Inside Out
4 – BEIRA – something went wrong in last – 5 workouts since – otherwise ITM 6/6 at Aq
2 – COQUITO – SIM FAV – terrible race last out – bounce back in 2nd up
5 – IT TAKES HEART – going to the front and ITM 5/5 at the distance
3 – PISTOL LIZ ABLAZEN – tough call over the 7 – but more upside
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bais: Early Speed, 41% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – ENIGMATIC – TLRSP# +3, – SIM FAV and should be out front with an inside post
10 – SIGHT TO SEE – resume says 3rd up should be similar to the 2nd – BAQ 2/0-0-0
6 – BEST IMPRESSION – another that should be forward – where Kendrick wants to be
8 – SHE’S COOL – Top Total Pace – drops a length in class
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Tough
3 – GRUMBLYRUMHOGAN – YES horse with 2nd race Parability – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace
6 – B RAGING ON – TLRSP# +4 – the other YES horse – Better ATB
2 – SKIP FORWARD – going to take a little flyer based on Oct 5th work – 4f in 47 flat – 3/131
7 – ESCAPE HALL – switch to turf with decent enough breeding
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6/1,4,5,9,13/1,6/1,2,4
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,5,6,7
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Tough
4 – INTOTHEWILDERNESS – SIM FAV with 2nd Race Parability – why not at a big Price?
9 – CONSIDERATE CITY – YES horse – room for bounce back race in 3rd career start
13 – RAYNHAM HALL – Top Total Pace +10.5 and YES horse – getting distance helps?
5 – COACH OF THE YEAR – strongest turf breeding for 1ster – $200k horse
1 – JOROPO – another longshot – tough start in debut, strong rally – better start
$0.50 Trifecta 1,4,5,9,13/4,9,13/1,4,5,9,13
Race 7: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 2/7 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Strong
1 – HIGHER FORCE – fast track 6/0-3-2 – better EP in last
6 – CAPITAL GAL – left arrow – on the lead? And Top C ZONE – 2nd up – but AQ 7/0-0-0
2 – PURPOSE – super consistent with decent works between races
5 – GRACE AND GRIT – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace +5 – Top PAR+
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Tough
2 – TOUGH LOVE TORRES – been off more than a year – if she is ready – works say OK
1 – KYLA’S KAUSE – making the 2nd start in a row for the 1st time – finally healthy?
4 – MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR – last BAQ 6f inner turf and she’s a winner again – Bif C ZONE edge
10 – PARADE RING – 3SP# increases – better EP in last – but outside post hurts
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,5,10
