The 2025 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar brings an elite cast of international contenders from Europe, Japan, and South America. From Juvenile Turf sprints to the Classic, Tom and Rich deliver sharp insight on global form and analysis. Together they break down who can handle the firm California turf and fast dirt—and who might surprise on racing’s biggest stage.
FRIDAY
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Brussels (1)
Tom: He won his maiden at the Curragh and has three seconds from five races in his other starts at Newmarket, Doncaster, and Tipton. Right now, he’s a good two-year-old, but Aiden O’Brien is best, I don’t think so. Could he win this race? The inside post position is a challenge. Yes, or at least run in the money off current form.
Rich: Soumillion come over to ride and is off the 7 MISSION CENTRAL – tells you which one trainer Aiden O’Brien thinks has the better chance
Military Code (2)
Tom: He was not in the original starting field but has certainly run some good races and a few poor ones. At Royal Ascot, after winning over the course in a previous start, he finished seventh but might have been on the wrong side of the course that day. The Goodwood race wasn’t much better either, finishing seventh. However, in between, he’s had two second-place finishes to fairly strong horses and has the lead in one, but was outfinished. I won’t count this horse out with Appleby/Buick and a good post position.
Rich: normally, Godolphin, William Buick and Charlie Appleby are must haves, but this one has been blown out versus top level competition twice. This is top level.
Aspect Island (4)
Tom: The trainer has two horses running in the Breeders’ Cup races, and this one appears to be overmatched. He started his racing career with two forgettable runs, finishing eighth and ninth. Switch him to the all-weather eighteen days later, and he runs second. A front-running effort at Yarmouth in a class four at six furlongs, and he wins. Last race, he pressed the leaders but was outfinished at the end, running third at Newmarket. The time was quick :57.5. Big price.
Rich: has solid turf breeding, but this is a major step up in competition. Will have to run the race of his career here.
Mission Central (7)
Tom: Won last time out at Ascot on British Champion Day by taking the lead with a furlong to go and kept on. Should show some speed. In his Doncaster race, he didn’t have the room to get out and make the run. He won his two races before at the Curragh. Toss his first start on the all-weather. A quick turnaround, but run well at six furlongs, will the shorter distance suit? Post position is a positive.
Rich: see comment on BRUSSELS
Havana Anna (8)
Tom: She ran well in all her races with two wins at Naas, both at five furlongs. She missed by a nose at Longchamp in a group three and three-quarters of a length last time out at Newmarket in a group one. She appears to be a presser, so sitting behind the speed may serve her well here. She will need to win the trip.
Rich: girl versus the boys – she has the breeding and proven she can run with the boys – just ¾ a length behind TRUE LOVE in a Group I last out. Cutting off a little distance probably helps.
True Love (9)
Tom: She won last time over her stablemate, Havana Anna. She led with a furlong to go and kept going as the favorite. In the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, she ran on the near side and was asked to go with two furlongs left in the race. She may be the best Aiden O’Brien runner in the race, and her three runs in second were against top two-year-olds that are not running here, especially Lady Iman. She’s my top choice to catch the speed and win.
Rich: I think this one is your winner – has the highest rated wins on the resume – should relish the fast footing in Southern California and better in 2nd up.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Queen Of Hawaii (2)
Tom: Three starts, two wins, both at one mile at Leopardstown and the Curragh in a group three. She won going last time. She is just getting better, and two turns with the number two position will only help her.
Rich: I absolutely love it when the comment say, “won going away” and “pushed out and clear final 110yds”. This one might be one of those with an extra gear, making the others look like they are running in place – watch out.
Switch In Love (6)
Tom: She won her first start in a maiden race by a nose as the favorite. In her last start, she ran second, getting caught at the end, but it was a fight to the finish. A fast time of 1:33.5 at Hashin. She can do that again; she will be tough to beat. They paid 1.2 million for her.
Rich: is a $1.2 million horse – so far only a Japanese maiden win – got popped in stakes try in 2nd race. Maybe someday maybe – just don’t think it’s today.
Balantina (10)
Tom: She’s only a maiden winner, and today’s jockey returns to ride after some mixed results. The race that impresses me is the Group Three at Deauville, where she took the lead and was just nosed out. She ran third at Royal Ascot in the Albany at 40-1. She has speed to her outside, so she will get a wide trip into the first turn. It will be interesting to see if she can close late and get shuffled back in the field.
Rich: has a 2nd by a head in a Group III. Extra distance today could help, but she hasn’t turned once yet – today, she has two turns to deal with.
Pacific Mission (12)
Tom: Her first start wasn’t much, but she won her next start on the all-weather at Kempton and ran in the top race at Doncaster in her last start. She dwelt at the beginning, raced on the far side, then joined the main group. She may have more to offer with more distance. The twelve post position is a negative, and Collin Keane will have to use her early in the race. Miss the start, she’s done.
Rich: breeding is there, worries me a little as she just missed in a Group II last out. She has been off since mid September. I would be higher on her but didn’t fire in her debut and might be one of those that needs a tune up race.
Precise (13)
Tom: She won four of her five races with a second in her first start. The last two were in group one races at the Curragh and then Newmarket. She has been with the pace, and her last race was in the rear. With the post position, she will have to run in the back and get the trip. She won on firm going. Soumillon/O’Brien
Rich: her resume speaks for itself – ripped off 4 straight wins with the last two being Group Is. My question here, she hasn’t tuned once in a race either. In this case, I think the outside post actually helps.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
North Coast (6)
Tom: After running on good ground, he found the yielding racecourse not to his liking and ran a disappointing race after showing early beaten by over ten lengths. In his four earlier races, he won twice and ran second and third in the other races. I don’t see him doing anything in this race.
Rich: scored a dominant win in a Group III – but really got pounded in a Group afterwards, finishing 10 lengths behind GSTAAD.
Ardisia (10)
Tom: He is the most experienced runner in this race, with 11 starts and 5 wins. He’s been running at a distance of five to six furlongs, but no group races. They gelded him after his fifth race. He ran fourth in a race at Chester, which had tight turns with issues. His races are only class two or lower, but many are for big money. In his last race, he ran second to Mission Central by half a length at 18-1. That last race really should be a Group One race. Does he have a chance? Yes, but will need some racing luck to get home.
Rich: is in good form, no doubt, with 4 high quality starts in the last 5 races. However, those efforts were against class 2 types and these are a lot tougher than that.
Gstaad (14)
Tom: I hate the outside draw for this race. He ran a powerful race last time out, running second in a Group One Dewhurst at Newmarket. He was the favorite and just missed. He has two wins and three seconds. His misses are by the third quarter, a head and a neck. He’s my top choice, but that post position requires strategic thinking on how to place the horse early.
Rich: no bad races in 5, really just a little shy of winning all 5 outings. Maybe, he hangs a little late and is another international runner yet to turn in a race.
R4: $200,000 Ken Maddy Stakes
Puro Magic (PP: 7)
Tom: She appears to be running on Friday because I don’t think there will be any scratches in this race. In her Friday race, she should be the favorite, especially after her last effort, which came against the top group companies in Dubai and Japan.
Rich: has 3 Group III wins, which should translate well at this level. The turf breeding is off the charts compared to the rest and has some really fast sprint times.
SATURDAY
R3: $300,000 Goldikova Stakes (GIII)
Temptable (PP: 13)
Rich: dominated in her last race, which was as highly rated as any win or any horse other than the favorite SPECIAL WAN. One major concern, all turf races were on soft. She may love or hate firm footing.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (GI)
Fee Blanche (5)
Tom: She ran seven furlongs in the first race in April and won easily. That race was at Urawa. Her next race was a one-mile event at Kawasaki, and she held on to win. Her last race was over 1 3/8 miles, and she finished fourth. She took the lead early but then faded. Too far? She has run on dirt tracks in 15 or 16 races. I will include her in my picks.
Rich: FREE BLANCHE (PP: 5) – has absolutely raced her best with jockey Hiroto Yoshihara on board, and he made the trip. So, they must think they have a chance, but hasn’t faced Group company. It would be a shocker.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GI)
Arizona Blaze (3)
Tom: He did nothing good in Nunthorpe. He showed a little, but it was done early. He came back at the Curragh in his last race and won a group one by one length. If he is going to run well, he needs to be placed early in the race. He has the post position to do that.
Khadeem (4)
Tom: He won last time at Keeneland, coming from last to first by a neck. He broke slowly but went wide to win. He ran well at Kentucky Downs but was only able to hang on for third. His races in the UK this season were bad. If he feels like running today, this nine-year-old can get the job done, but will he show any interest today?
Bucanero Fuerte (11)
Tom: He’s raced three times this year with two wins and a third last time out to the Arizona Blaze at the Curragh by one length. He is a confirmed frontrunner who should try to make all on the lead. There is plenty of speed in this race, and five furlongs with the turn may help him, but he will have to overcome the outside post position. With the inside speed, he’s likely going to be used too early to get position.
Rich: won half of his races, one of which was a Group I at Naas, but just finished 3rd behind ARIZONA BLAZE. She could be part of the early pace but likely yield as the race moves on.
Invincible Papa (12)
Tom: He ran the best race of his career, winning last time out going six furlongs in a quick 1:07.4 by half a length. He’s been mainly a dirt track runner except for his last two races, a fourth in his first try on the turf and then a win. Career-wise, he’s won six out of ten races. He has plenty of early speed. If he handles the outside post and five furlongs suits him, he will do very well here.
Rich: is no stranger to deep fields. He seems to have found a new life since being moved to turf. Five furlongs could prove to be a sweet spot.
She’s Quality (7)
Tom: She ran third in the Abbaye at Longchamp last time, behind Asfoora. She came from way back at the Curragh in the previous start and got fourth. She ran poorly in the Nunthorpe after showing early foot. Lately, she has been coming from far back, but earlier this season, she was more forwardly placed, getting four seconds in group races. Maybe!
Rich: has run fair enough to consider but seems like her current form is ITM at best.
Puro Magic (13)
Tom: She appears to be running on Friday because I don’t think there will be any scratches in this race. In her Friday race, she should be the favorite, especially after her last effort, which came against the top group companies in Dubai and Japan.
Rich: is scary based on breeding alone. Never mind that she’s won more than $1 million and eight straight Group races.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI)
American Stage (9)
Tom: This is an interesting horse; he won his first three starts on the turf and dirt. Then he went to Dubai and ran second in his first start and then sixth in the Shaheen. Both races were dirt races. His only start this year was in October, and he ran second as the favorite in the mud. He’s run nine times and won three, four seconds, and one third.
Rich: got beat handily by NAKATOMI, who could factor, but has been beaten multiple time by multiple horses in here. I don’t suspect you’ll hear his name in the stretch call.
Valiant Force (Also Eligible)
Tom: I don’t think he will draw in and since his win at Royal Ascot at 150-1 as a two-year-old, all he’s won are some all-weather races at Dundalk.
Rich: VALIANT FORCE (PP: 15) – good workouts, I mean really good workouts at Gulfstream, 4f in 46.1 in his last, fastest of 107. Keep an eye open for him if/when he lines up in South Florida. Maybe, he lights up and goes if he scratches in.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI)
Saeawak Rim (2)
Tom: She hasn’t raced since May, and the workouts are nothing special. She ran her best race last time out, going 1 1/4 miles and finishing strongly. She’s run five times and won four races in Argentina. The trainer is adding blinkers, and what makes the filly more interesting is that Irad is riding her.
Rich: SARAWAK RIM (PP: 2) – I really, really wanted to like this horse. Winner four of five with a second, Irad takes the ride, but… workouts are kind of pedestrian, especially at Del Mar, and especially for Grades Stakes types. Maybe she’ll prove me wrong, pass until she does.
Alice Verite (6)
Tom: She ran fourth in this race last year and comes into the race not in the best of form, with finishes of eighth, fifth, fourth, and sixteenth. She won a group three at Kyoto, but her other wins are against lesser competition. Not for me.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (GI)
Rebel’s Romance (1)
Tom: Two-time winner of this race. Godolphin’s homebred has won all over the world. In his July race at Ascot, he lost to Calandagan (who again won at Ascot) and Kaplana (who also won last time at Ascot). He will be put on the lead and play come and catch me if you can. Because he’s a gelding, he can run in the ARC. Appleby/Buick
Goliath (2)
Tom: In his last race in Germany, he won a Group 1 at Baden-Baden. He placed second in the race before at Deauville and won earlier in the season at Longchamp in a group three. His big win was at Ascot last year, when he won the King George and Queen Elizabeth Group One races. In form, must consider.
Rich: Grade I win in Germany, if you watch Foreign Friday’s you know I wonder about the quality of German racing, However, did get the better of REBEL’S ROMANCE at Royal Ascot in 2024 – No surprise that Soumillon stays on MINNIE HAWK.
Amiloc (3)
Tom: After winning his first five races, he ran second in the Irish St. Leger at the Curragh last time. He won a Group Two at Royal Ascot. You must consider him off his record and in excellent racing form. I have him running in the money at the very least. He is a three-year-old gelding.
Rich: started 5-0 before running into AL RIFFA in a Group I last out, However, AL QAREEM, who finished 3rd that day and behind AMILOC, came back to win Group III afterwards.
Wimbledon Hawkeye (6)
Tom: He’s been good in many top-class horses this season and has a win at Kentucky Downs. He has found ways to win or finish in the money in group races, except for his first start. Only two average efforts on his CV.
Silawi (7)
Tom: Won the Canadian International last time out and at Royal Windsor the race before, a group three race. He’s not won above the group three level yet. He is still an unknown at this level but comes off two wins. Big price.
Minnie Hauk (8)
Tom: She was second in the ARC and won three Oaks races, all group one races. She’s run 7 times, won 5, and finished second twice. She will come with a big rush at the end and if she get first run, watch out. She is a very good racehorse in top form.
Rich: almost won the Arc last out, which would have been 3 group I wins in a row – she cost close to $2 million, the breeding is there and she’s already won $2.6 million in just seven races.
El Cordobes (10)
Tom: Won at Saratoga in a perfectly timed ride in the Sword Dancer. After a late start to his career, he’s raced eight times this season with three wins, two seconds, and three thirds. He won at Newmarket in a group two race before shipping to the States. Last out, he ran third in the Turf Classic to Rebel’s Romance. Godolphin’s top runners have performed well in this country. Appleby with Billy Loughnane riding.
Rashabar (11)
Tom: He won at Royal Ascot last year in the Coventry. His run good efforts this season with three seconds and three fourths in group races. This one, I will wait on and see what he does next year as a four-year-old.
Rich: hasn’t faced anything near what he is squaring up against here; would be shocked if she won.
Ethical Diamond (14)
Tom: This horse took some time to mature, with only a maiden win in his first two racing seasons. He started in a maiden hurdle race this season and won, then had poor efforts in two other hurdle races. He won his last two starts in handicap races at Royal Ascot and then at York. Mullins trains this five-year-old, and I always watch his horses’ placement in races. He must think he has a chance here. The outside post is a really tough ask for this horse.
Rich: has just two chunky races in seven starts – the other five we high quality efforts, including winning the last with ease. Once again, this is much stiffer competition.
Breeder’s Cup Classic
Forever Young (5)
Tom: He prepped in Japan, winning as the favorite. He won in Dubai last year and ran third this year. He won the Saudi Cup, the world’s richest race. He ran third in the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. One of the best Japanese dirt horse runners today.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile (GI)
One Stripe (1)
Tom: A South African import with wins in group races at Kenilworth. He ran fifth at Woodbine in his first start in North America. They have been training him on the all-weather with okay workouts. I can’t play him in this race.
Notable Speech (2)
Tom: He ran third here last year after a win in the 2000 Guineas and Sussex, but had average efforts in his other races. He won last time out at Woodbine with ease, and he finished second in a Group 1 at Deauville. He is capable of running big races or a bust. Prefect post position. Appleby/Buick.
Sahlan (3)
Tom: He won last time out, taking the Prix Moulin at Longchamp after racing at Deauville. He struggled in races during May and June, finishing sixth and ninth after opening the season with a win in a Group Three at Longchamp. This is one to consider and he is my top choice.
Rich: won the last two race, including the Group I Prix du Moulin de Longchamp last out. That same race would fit here. His two biggest wins by length were on AW and good footing. I think he could really like the fast firm footing at Del Mar.
The Lion In Winter (4)
Tom: He began his career with two wins and high hopes from his connections, but he did not meet expectations, delivering mostly average performances in three of his four races, with his best finish being third in a seven-furlong race at Deauville. His last two races are showing signs of improvement, with a third at Longchamp to Sahlan and a second at Ascot on British Champion Day. Has he finally returned to good form, or will he face another setback? It’s hard to bet against Aiden O’Brien — just remember Order of Australia.
Rich: really wanted to consider with the strong breeding but did seem to regress a little in his last and lost by a neck to SAHLAN and was pounded by NOTABLE SPEECH.
Gran Oriente (6)
Tom: He won his last race in May in Chile, a Group One, but his previous efforts were 10th and 3 seconds. He has been working out steadily for this race, with the best time being last on October 25th, going five furlongs in :59.80. He will be a price and may need a start, but stranger things have happened, so watch out.
Rich: comes from Chile off a long, Group I win – I don’t think 1 mile is long enough. The only time he ran that long, he got beat by 10 lengths.
Argine (9)
Tom: She’s raced three times this season with a win, a second, and a fourth. The fourth was in a group one at Tokyo. She’s won on the dirt but has mainly raced on the turf in firm to heavy conditions. She’s won off layoffs, and the distance is my only concern since she hasn’t won over one mile yet. She has improved with age.
Rich: has excellent turf breeding, perhaps tops in the field. He has Group success in Japan and is a nose away from winning his last six races off the sidelines, like today. A longshot with a real chance based on all of that.
Jonquil (10)
Tom: He rallied for fourth last time out at Keeneland at 12-1. He was wide on the first turn coming out of the eleven post position, but only lost by a length and a half. He won the Celebration Mile at Goodwood in the start by a neck; he was asked to move with three furlongs left in the race. In May, he ran second to Henri Matisse at Longchamp in a Group One Poulains. He’s Juddmonte-owned and needs to run his race, closing; he will make a good account of himself. Top Irish rider on board – Collin Keene.
Qirat (13)
Tom: A front-runner who took them all the way in the Sussex, but has run poor efforts in the City of York and The Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp. He will set the pace and win if he can steal the race from a slow start. I don’t see that happening against this group and with the outside post position and two turns, it’s asking a lot.
Rich: could challenge for the lead and possibly be out there by himself in a race where almost all prefer to be middle back. He will have to catch the right fractions to hold off the top horses here.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (GI)
Touch of Destiny (9)
Tom: Undefeated in Uruguay and has won on the front end. He’s last race was in June in which he won at the big favorite. His workouts for this race are excellent, and his racing times are very good to excellent. Would he be a surprise verse this group, maybe, but maybe not, since Mile McCarthy has had plenty of time to work with this horse. I am a bit surprised they didn’t put him in a race earlier. The jockey is coming from Uruguay to ride.
Rich: I saw this horse is from Uruguay and almost reflexively skipped him. Then I saw he’s won 6 of 6, but what caught my attention was the works at Santa Anita. He may not win, but I suspect he could show well.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (GI)
Atsila (3)
Tom: She won her first two races and hasn’t won since. She didn’t start racing until this year and has run against Group One and Group Three company. Her best result was in a race at Leopardstown, running third. She weakened or faded in these races. I don’t see her doing much against these horses.
Rich: hasn’t come close to CINDERALLA’S DREAM in the two times they met, and I don’t think CINDERALLA’S DREAM is the one to beat, low on the list in fact.
Gezora (5)
Tom: I don’t know exactly what happened in the ARC, but she trailed the field the entire race. It wasn’t her day. Her previous races included a win at Chantilly in a Group One and a second in the Vermeille at Longchamp. She has another win at Longchamp recently. I don’t really know if the firm going will suit her, because her only race on that going was a third in a Group Three at Longchamp. If you toss the last race, she has a chance.
Rich: the odds maker has her as one of the favorites. I am not a fan of the last effort, no matter the competition. This is the third up, but she will need to improve off of the first two.
Diamond Rain (6)
Tom: She ran second to SheFeelsPretty at Woodbine with a slow start, but gained steadily at the end. She won twice before, once on the all-weather group three and a race at Haydock. She’s a second stringer for Appleby that may run well again today.
Cathedral (8)
Tom: She is only a maiden winner on the all-weather and has since run in group races. She has two seconds and ran well in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket last time out, running fifth. She really didn’t do much late running. Her Royal Ascot race was a good one, running her best speed number and finishing fourth. Could she win? Maybe with her best effort, which we have not seen yet. Big price.
Rich: so for she hasn’t shown the ability to win and beat horses at this level, Won her debut and that’s been it.
Cinderella’s Dream (9)
Tom: She ran second in this race last year, blown away by the winner. Since then, she has two wins, a second, a fourth, and a third last time out in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket. She was unable to handle the likes of Fallen Angel. She will be heavily bet against, close strongly, but will she get there in time? Appleby/Buick
Bedtime Story (11)
Tom: Last year, in her first three races, she was unbeatable. Then at the Curragh, she ran a seven-furlong race as the big favorite and lost running fifth by two plus lengths to the next out winner at the Breeders’ Cup, Lake Victoria. Since that race, she has finished second in the Diane and a third in the Vermeille, and the other efforts were not anything to brag about. Promising two-year-old and average three-year-old. I wait and see if some maturity as a four-year-old will make a difference. In this race, I don’t see her at her best with this outside post position.
Rich: might prefer a little moisture in the track. She ain’t going to get any of that as the weather in Southern California is sunny, warm and perfect for racing. It will be fast and firm.
See The Fire (14)
Tom: She got the worst draw of number fourteen. Her last win was in May at York in a group two race. Since that race, she ran in the money finish and closed strong to miss by a neck last time in the Opera at Longchamp. That was a race with five horses on the wire. She’s running well with the boys, but the bottom line is she is not finishing races. With this post position and her running style, she’s going to have to get one heck of a trip to have a chance at the end. She listed at 5-1, but that’s very generous.
Rich: second in the Prix de l’Opera Longines by a neck in her last. This is the second up and she won by a dozen lengths in her last second up effort, and it was on good footing. Oisin Murphy’s only has a pair of mounts on Saturday. He is here to win, and I think she has an excellent chance.
Melbourne Cup — Flemington — 3200m
Al Riffa
Tom: He raced once during the season with a winning effort at the Curragh, going 2816m on the soft going. His preferred going is good or good to soft. He failed to fire on the firm going. Distance isn’t an issue, but he’s never gone this far before, and this is the race he’s been aiming for—the draw in very important.
Onesmoothoperator
Tom: He won the Geelong Cup, and a good number of horses have gone on to win this race. He has a cut and had to pass a vet check, he’s ok. He’s best on the good going. He’s fresh with only the one race this season. He ran the distance in the UK at Newcastle, and it was a winning effort. After his win last time, he won a group race, but this is a significant step up.
Chevalier Rose
Tom: He won the Stayer’s Cup at 3600m last November, and that race has produced a Melbourne Cup winner. His form has been great in 2025, so this would be a well-priced horse if he wins. I think that he has a great chance of running in the money, as this is the race they have pointed him to.
Valiant King
Tom: An import trained by Chris Waller has won two races, with the October win being the best so far. He might not be Waller’s top horse, but he has historically given bettors a good profit, so I plan to include him in the money.
Half Yours
Tom: He won at Caulfield in October with a beautiful ride by Jamie Melham. If she wins this race, she will be the second female to do so. This is a top-class Group One horse in the best of form. Post position and trip will be key to success.
