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Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

Kentucky Derby

Chris Pomerleau’s Derby Rankings 3-11-2022

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

We are now (26) Kentucky Derby prep races in with the weekend of racing being focused on Tampa Bay Down’s biggest day with the Tampa Bay Derby which awards the following points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5).

With the four stakes races from this past weekend there was a lot of shifting with the top contenders with several new horses moving to the top of the list.  I’m not sure who the most impressive was from the weekend but Simplification, Forbidden Kingdom and Morello all looked good.  The road to the derby has improved with some of the recent performances, for that reason I am going to drop the Bob Baffert trained horses from my top rankings until something changes.

My current Top 5 rankings:

#1 SMILE HAPPY

I still feel he is the cream of the crop until he races again.  We saw his return after the lay-off and showed he may have needed a race to get back into form.  As trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted out that he maybe needed to be a tad closer, was valiant to get up for 2nd and had a good gallop out.  I would have liked to have seen him urged a little quicker than he was, but the reality is that he wasn’t catching Epicenter who had the perfect trip to go wire to wire.  I’m surprised he got up for 2nd as he had to weave through a couple of horses to get there.

#2 SIMPLIFICATION

I thought he ran well in the Holy Bull in what was a tough trip.  I thought he was a one-dimensional early speed front-runner and that race showed he had some tactical speed.  That was exactly how he ran in the Fountain of Youth running off the pace and looking good.  To win the Kentucky Derby you need to be forwardly placed and in good position.  I really like what I’ve seen with Simplification as he’s continuing to improve race to race.

Simplification is the #2:

 

#3 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM

Put the field away easily in the San Felipe at Santa Anita.  Front speed running son of American Pharoah is on the board after that performance.

Forbidden Kingdom is the #6.

 

#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

We get to see if he’s legit in this weekend’s Tampa Bay Derby.  He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure.  He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.

#5 ZANDON

I could easily put Morello in the 5-spot but I’m going to favor Zandon until I can see his next race.  He hopped out of the gate and went right to the back.  Made a strong move on the turn and kept coming.  Would’ve liked to have seen what he could have done with  better placement out of the starting gate.

Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 3/8/22

Typically (40) earned derby points pretty much guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.  Using that criteria (5) horses below should have already punched their ticket to the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Rank Horse Points Sire Trainer
1 Epicenter 64 Not This Time Steve Asmussen
2 Un Ojo 54 Laoban Ricky Courville
3 Simplification 54 Not This Time Antonio Sano
4 Morello 50 Classic Empire Steve Asmussen
5 Forbidden Kingdom 50 American Pharoah Richard Mandella
6 Smile Happy 30 Runhappy Ken McPeek
7 In Due Time 20 Not This Time Kelly Breen
8 Dean’s List 20 Speightstown Todd Pletcher
9 Ethereal Road 18 Quality Road D. Wayne Lukas
10 Barber Road 18 Race Day John Ortiz
11 Classic Causeway 16 Giant’s Causeway Brian Lynch
12 Pappacap 14 Gun Runner Mark Casse
13 Zandon 14 Upstart Chad Brown
14 White Abarrio 12 Race Day Saffie Joseph, Jr.
15 Mo Donegal 12 Uncle Mo Todd Pletcher
16 Dash Attack 10 Munnings Ken McPeek
17 Courvoisier 10 Tapit Kelly Breen
18 Make It Big 10 Neolithic Saffie Joseph, Jr.
19 Call Me Midnight 10 Midnight Lute Keith Desormeaux
20 Early Voting 10 Gun Runner Chad Brown
21 Slow Down Andy 10 Nyquist Doug O’Neill
22 Rattle N Roll 10 Connect Ken McPeek
23 Jack Christopher 10 Munnings Chad Brown
24 Major General 10 Constitution Todd Pletcher
25 Tiz the Bomb 10 Hit It a Bomb Ken McPeek
26 Happy Jack 10 Oxbow Doug O’Neill
27 Golden Code 10 Honor Code Todd Pletcher
28 Kavod 7 Lea Chris Hartman
29 Commandperformance 6 Union Rags Todd Pletcher
30 Mackinnon 5 American Pharoah Doug O’Neill
31 Pioneer of Medina 5 Pioneerof the Nile Todd Pletcher
32 Emmanuel 5 More Than Ready Todd Pletcher
33 Giant Game 5 Giant”s Causeway Dale Romans
34 Oviatt Class 4 Bernardini Keith Desormeaux
35 Shipsational 4 Midshipman Edward Barker
36 Life is Great 4 Tapiture Robert Klesaris
37 Osbourne 4 Tapiture Ron Moquett
38 Double Thunder 4 Super Saver Todd Pletcher
39 Tough to Tame 4 Speightster Christopher Davis
40 Wit 4 Practical Joke Todd Pletcher
41 Smarten Up 4 American Freedom Alfredo Velazquez
42 Cabo Spirit 4 Pioneerof the Nile George Papaprodromou
43 Volcanic 4 Violence Mark Casse
44 Del Mo 4 Uncle Mo Doug O’Neill
45 Tejano Twist 4 Practical Joke Bret Calhoun
46 Stolen Base 4 Bodemeister Mike Maker
47 Ben Diesel 3 Will Take Charge Dallas Stewart
48 Gilded Age 2 Medaglia d’Oro Bill Mott
49 Ignitis 2 Nyquist D. Wayne Lukas
50 Red Knobs 2 Union Rags Dale Romans
51 Cooke Creek 2 Uncle Mo Jeremiah O’Dwyer
52 Surfer Dude 2 Curlin Dallas Stewart
53 Midnight Chrome 2 Caifornia Chrome Tyler Servis
54 Bourbon Heist 1 Practical Joke Ian Wilkes
55 Mr Jefferson 1 Constitution Mike Trombetta
56 Durante 1 Distorted Humor Doug O’Neill
57 Kevin’s Folly 1 Distorted Humor Tom Amoss
58 Strike Hard 1 Flashback Matthew Williams
59 Trafalger 1 Lord Nelson Al Stall
60 Unbridled Bomber 1 Upstart James Ryerson
61 Galt 1 Medaglia d’Oro Bill Mott
62 Sir London 1 Malibu Moon Simon Callaghan
63 lL Bellator 1 Shackleford Jose Bautista
64 Grantham 1 Declaration of War Mike Maker
65 American Sanctuary 1 American Freedom Christopher Davis
66 Rich Strike 1 Keen Ice Eric Reed
67 My Prankster 1 Into Mischief Todd Pletcher

 source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

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