Chris Pomerleau’s Kentucky Derby Rankings 4-7-2022

Chris Pomerleau’s Derby Rankings

We are literally down to the wire and officially a month out from the Kentucky Derby.

In the Florida Derby White Abarrio showed tremendous effort holding off Charge It to win.  Speaking of White Abarrio I give him a ton of credit as I’ve picked against him twice now.  His trips were not the most difficult, but he has a ton of heart and moves when he needs to, my only concern is trainer Saffie Joseph’s ability to win outside of Gulfstream Park.   Charge It ran a good race with some trouble and believe he can take another step forward when it counts.  I still feel this year’s derby is set up for the best back speed horse to make some noise down the stretch, there are a few that we key in as we get closer.

My current Top 5 rankings with current odds to win the Kentucky Derby:

#1 MESSIER (6:1)

He sat on the top of my leaderboard for a long time, and I wasn’t sure he was ever going to be able to get to the derby.  The Santa Anita derby will be his first chance and last chance to obtain enough points under new assigned trainer Tim Yakteen.  It should be noted that Yakteen is a former Assistant Trainer under Bob Baffert, with Messier he gets a solid chance to get into the derby.  He has run the fastest figure of all 3-year-old this year.

Last race was the Robert B. Lewis from back in February, Messier is the #1.

#2 SMILE HAPPY (10:1)

His odds have gone up to (10:1).  We get to see his return this weekend in the Bluegrass against a good field.  We saw his return after the lay-off and showed he may have needed a race to get back into form.  As trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted out that he maybe needed to be a tad closer, was valiant to get up for 2^nd and had a good gallop out.  I would have liked to have seen him urged a little quicker than he was, but the reality is that he wasn’t catching Epicenter who had the perfect trip to go wire to wire.  I’m surprised he got up for 2^nd as he had to weave through a couple of horses to get there, we shall see.

Last race is the Risen Star where he finished 2^nd to Epicenter who had the lead uncontested.  Smile Happy is the #8, watch him on the final turn as he wasn’t placed in a good spot going inside on the stretch run.  I believe with a better trip there is more talent here.

#3 EPICENTER (6:1)

All he has done is win, current leader on the leader board with (164) points.  Finished 2^nd in the Lecomte after a quick first fraction he slowed a bit in the stretch and then ran strong in the Risen Star.  Watch the above video again keying in on the #5.  Depending on what occurs this weekend (6:1) may be a gift for derby odds if a couple of the trendy horses don’t fire.

#4 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (7:1)

Put the field away easily in the San Felipe at Santa Anita.  Front speed running son of American Pharoah could go to odds on favorite with a big race this weekend.

Forbidden Kingdom is the #6.

#4 CHARGE IT (14:1)

Lightly raced horse who looked green in the Florida Derby.  Coming out of the Maiden ranks to run up for 2^nd after a run where he couldn’t seem to get a lane straight on to fire.  I do like how he picked up his feet and dug in down the stretch.  I think this may be a special horse and a dangerous derby contender based on the fact he showed he can come from off the pace.

Charge It is the #6, White Abarrio is the #7 here in the Florida Derby.

#5 MORELLO (14:1)

Is 3 wins in 3 career starts in his races at the Big A.  He ran off the pace in the Gotham and put this field away in the stretch.  Being in the Northeast NYRA is the home circuit and it’s a feel-good story with the ownership group at Blue Lion Thoroughbreds who have a winner here.  I’ll be rooting him home in the Wood this weekend.

WHITE ABARRIO here I go again discounting him after winning two big Gulfstream races.  Again, it’s trainer Joseph who I have concerns can win outside of Gulfstream, although I believe White Abarrio may be his ‘horse of a lifetime’.

ZANDON he hopped out of the gate and went right to the back.  Made a strong move on the turn and kept coming.  Would’ve liked to have seen what he could have done with  better placement out of the starting gate.  Gets another chance this weekend in the Bluegrass to show what he can do.

MO DONEGAL I like that he is an off the pace runner and ran 3^rd in the Holy Bull.  He’s another horse I wanted to see again and again his running style may be perfect against the derby field this year.

Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 4/6/22

Typically (40) earned derby points pretty much guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.  Using that criteria (16) horses below should have already punched their ticket to the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard