It’s another fast and furious afternoon at Churchill Downs, and Rich is rolling solo with a full 10-race card loaded with value plays, pace advantages, and bias insights. The Smart Sheets point to a clear edge for early speed, but several races feature powerful closers ready to pounce when the pace collapses. Using TLRSP# ratings, C-ZONE indicators, and track bias data, Rich’s Parx Ranks highlight which horses are best positioned to win, place, or deliver double and Pick-4 value. Whether you’re building tickets or tracking trends, today’s card has opportunity written all over it.
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs-10-29-2025
Race 1–Female
3 – Motown Dynamic – She has won her last five starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Devil Pays in Gold – She’s won 2 of her last 3 races. Her trainer wins 57% of races when dropping a horse after a win, and she has a successful jockey.
1 – St. Albans Raid – She has won her last three starts, she has highest last race speed rating and has she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Divine Gal – She ran 2nd in last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Outrageously
Race 2
3 – Augusta Melody: He has won 3 of her last 5 races and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Big Effect: He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 68% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
4 – Save the Trees: He has won 1 race out of 3 starts at Churchill Downs, drops in class today and he has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Young Squire: He has a top-winning jockey and best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Halloween
1 – Bushido
$.50 Pick 4:3,4,5,6,7/2,4,6,7,8/7,10/1,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
4 – Beck’s Dreamer: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Lebombo: Switches to a high % jockey; Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Come to Papa: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
Longshot:
7 – Ice Shot: Dropping in class today with a trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and a top jockey.
Alternate:
8 – My King Air
3 – Magnificent Rags
Race 4
7 – Pancake House: He has won 2 of her last 3 races, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Masteroffoxhounds: Dropping in class today; Can improve at the shorter distance; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Two Beers by Ten: Won last race and has a top-winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Standpoint: Has a high % trainer who wins 28% of the claiming races, has a top-winning jockey and can improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
4 – What’s Up Doc
2 – Man in the Can
$.50 Pick 4:4,6,7,9,10/1,11/10,12/2,3,5,7,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 5
1 – Psalmist: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in dirt starts and has a high % winning jockey.
11 – Versed: Placed in 2 of 3 starts, drops in class today; trainer wins 20% when dropping horses two or more classes. Returning to dirt could help him improve.
9 – C. P. A. Jim: Drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Barstool: Drops in class today; Longer distance offers hope for improvement and best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Caprio
8 – Tisum
Race 6–Female
12 – Aggro – She won last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Sensible Choice – She finished 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 3F workout (Oct-23).
9 – Curls Nite Out: Has placed in four of six races, including two wins. Her trainer has an 18%-win rate in claiming races.
Longshot:
2 – J Rivers: High win rates for trainer and jockey; returns to a route; holds top speed figure at today’s distance and ties for fastest dirt speed among starters.
Alternate:
8 – Jackie’s Love
3 – Curlin’s Magic
Race 7
10 – Chayton: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Race Ready: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Fatguyinlittlecoat: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Gnome: Finished in the money in 2 out of his last 4 starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Turnback
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7,10/1,7,10,11/1,3/2,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
11 – Anglican: Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 5F workout (Oct-17).
10 – Mary’s Boy Bolt: Drops in class today with a trainer who has a 31%-win rate when introducing horses to claiming races and a high-percentage winning jockey.
7 – Governing Party: He has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Expect the Best: She has won 1 race out of 5 career starts races and has a high-percent trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Curvino
Bet: $ $3.00 Pick 3 – 1,6,7,10,11/1,5/2
Race 9-Female
1 – Gerlin’s Empire: Finished in the money in 5 of her last 6 starts with 1 win. Drops in class and has a trainer and jockey with strong winning records.
5 – Foie Gras – Finished in the money in 5 of her 8 career starts with 1 win; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Palm Desert – She finished in the money in both career races, winning the last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Gridlock: Finished 3rd last race. Trained by a 25% dirt win trainer and has a high-percentage winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Reliable Lady
6 – Going Steady
Bet: $20.00 Win: 1 – $10.00 Exacta Box :1/5 – $10.00 Exacta 1/3,4,5
Race 10
2 – Restless Renegade: Finished 2nd last race. Trainer has a 21%-win rate in the 1st race after claiming a horse, and jockey also boasts a high win percentage.
10 – Highway Patrol: He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Prince Day: Ran 2nd in last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Wobbegong: Ran 2nd in last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when moving a horse up one class and has a bullet 4F workout (Oct-20).
Alternate:
8 – J David
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – #1 – Gerlin’s Empire
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races, 1 w2w, the other Co-Pilot – PP: Winners 2-7
3 – MOTOWN DYNAMIC – consistent and won 5 in a row
4 – DEVIL PAYS IN GOLD – going to be out front with to C ZONE and ITM 8/8 at the distance
1 – ST. ALBANS RAID – TLRSP#+ 3 and resume says a pop in round 2 off the bench – CD 0/3
8 – OUTRAGEOUSLY – rising up the speed ladder, 3rd up – CD 5/3-0-1
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
3 – AUGUSTA MELODY – highly consistent – won both with Irad riding – like today
7 – BIG EFFECT – TLRSP# +3 – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace +5 – speed and fade in 1st up
1 – BUSHIDO – tr Eddie Kenneally Alpha Angle – 22% first off the claim vs 18% overall
4 – SAVE THE TREES – tough call over the 6 – but CD success and 5/3-0-1 at the distance
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,7/2,4,6/2,4,7/1,4,11
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – LEBOMBO – better EP and Fractions in last – down a length in class
6 – COME TO PAPA – TLRSP# + 5 – four works since – will close
4 – BECK’S DREAMER – SIM FAV – likely pacesetter with top Total Pace
3 – MAGNIFICENT RAGS – last of the YES horses – could be Lone E with by far best C ZONE
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – OFF – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – MAN IN THE CAN – knows how to win – 10/38 and won last 2 on CD dirt
7 – PANCAKE HOUSE – usually comes off the bench ready and has some good works
4 – WHAT’S UP DOC – biggest in race edge +13 LS – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace
5 – AMERICAN LAW – tied for the TLRSP# and has 2 bullet works since – 2nd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,7/1,4,11/1,9/1,7,8,10
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
11 – VERSED – biggest in race advantage – +8 LS
1 – PSALMIST – TLRSP# +5 – 3rd career start – boom or bust
4 – CAPRIO – by far best C ZONE – like that in open races
10 – BARSTOOL – could be out front – maybe going long for the 1st time helps
$5 Exacta Key Box: 11/1,4,10
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker/Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Tough
1 – MAD ABOUT MARIE – SIM FAV with strong PAR+ boomed in only other 3rd up
9 – CURLS NITE OUT – tough race in last – does have a history of sluggish 1st up effort and then following it up with a stellar run
3 – CURLIN’S MAGIC – hard to argue against a tr who wins at 38% off the claim vs 24% overall
12 – AGGRO – went w2w in her last – which was 1st at CD and should be on the lead here too
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Closers, 14% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Tough
7 – FATGUYINLITTLECOAT – 2nd race Parability = borderline stakes
1 – BIG APPLE PATRICK – 1st timer – July 4f work of 46.2 at keeneland says there is talent
8 – SURVIVIN’ONAPRAYER – another 1ster with a fast Keen 4f work of 47.2 2nd of 71
10 – CHAYTON – 2nd race parability puts him in contention
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,7,8,10/1,6/3,5,7/2,6,11,12
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – OFF
1 – EXPECT THE BEST – 3rd up – switch to Irad could help – better EP and Fractions
6 – CURVINO – TLRSP# +3 and Top TOTAL PACE – bullet work
11 – ANGLICAN – a lot want to close and has the most LP – been off for a while – good works and first gelded
7 – GOVERNING PARTY – another that has been off a while – but has run well enough in 1st ups
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/6,7,11
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
3 – PALM DESERT – plenty of upside in just her third race and should be forward good work
5 – FOIE GRAS – better in 2nd up – can make elite mid moves
7 – RELIABLE LADY – TLRSP# +3 – bullet work and switch to Irad
4 – GRIDLOCK – probably the most consistent with the most upside
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,4,5,7
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
2 – RESTLESS RENEGADE – rerun last race and it’s probably a winner – 3 works since
6 – WOBBEGONG – the other YES horse – got to have him – any improvement from last
11 – SAND STREET – no aside from the 2 and 6 – 2nd race upside
12 – MR ENTERTAINER – same story as the 11 – but MSW dropper
