It’s another fast and furious afternoon at Churchill Downs, and Rich is rolling solo with a full 10-race card loaded with value plays, pace advantages, and bias insights. The Smart Sheets point to a clear edge for early speed, but several races feature powerful closers ready to pounce when the pace collapses. Using TLRSP# ratings, C-ZONE indicators, and track bias data, Rich’s Parx Ranks highlight which horses are best positioned to win, place, or deliver double and Pick-4 value. Whether you’re building tickets or tracking trends, today’s card has opportunity written all over it.
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs-11-05-2025
Race 1
6 – Morlock – Finished in the money in 7 out of his 9 starts; Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Matinee Idol – Drops in class today, switches to a high % jockey and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Barb – Rail post is winning at 19% a clip; Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Crazy Diamond – Drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout (Oct-31).
Alternate:
2 – Tap Me a Song
4 – Empire Ranch
Race 2–Female
6 – Sonhador – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – American Pearl – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has she has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Quick to Charm – She ran 2nd in last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Whitethorn – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a successful trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Sensing Flatter
3 – Pronghorn
$.50 Pick 4:2,4,5,6/4,5/1,2,3,7/2,4,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
4 – Risuko – Ran 2nd in last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Up the Creek – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 50% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
2 – Give Her Another – Finished 3rd in last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Commanded – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths in last start and likes the distance.
Alternate:
1 – Keyana
3 – Antique Silver
Race 4–Female
3 – Lady Upstart – She ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she can go the distance.
1 – River Rise – She’s drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. Her trainer wins 32% of races in a horse’s 2nd career race, and she has a successful jockey.
7 – Hot Gossip – Drops in class today. Her trainer wins 32% of races when taking a horse from a sprint to route and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – I’m a Little Crazy – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and has she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Beautiful McKinzie
5 – Dreaming of June
Race 5
4 – Dr Fenn – Throw out the last race as she had lots of trouble, finishing in the money in the 3 prior races and can go the distance.
6 – Free Choice – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Two Seven O – Struggled on a sloppy track last time, but has good early speed, a trainer that horses wins 20% of maiden claiming races, and a high-performing jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Whiskey Bee Gone – He is a first-time starter whose high % winning trainer wins 20% of dirt starts, and a high-performing jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Vino Subito
8 – Dreamofyou
Race 6–Female
1 – Miss Arlington – Won last race at Keenland, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Promises to Dance – He has won 2 races out of 5 starts at Churchill Downs; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will help and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Candy Lover – She Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Lover Girl – She has won 2 races out of the last 4 starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Current Climate
7 – Bourbon Breeze
$.50 Pick 4:1,5,6,8/4,5,7/2,4/4,6,7,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
7 – Reckless – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and can improve at the longer distance.
5 – Mister Punch – He has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Alghero – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in a horse’s 2nd route races.
Longshot:
8 – Miskell – Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Wolfcamp
Race 8–Female
2 – Cervaro Della Sala – Won last race at Keenland, she has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey and she has a good 3F workout (Nov-01).
4 – Princess Madison – Finished 3rd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Hush It Honey – Won last race at Oaklawn Park; Highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Amarth – High win rates for trainer and jockey and rail post is winning at a 23% clip.
Alternate:
6 – Flash Wear
3 – Blue Squall
Bet: $20.00 Win: 2 – $10.00 Exacta Box :2/4 – $10.00 Exacta 2/1,4,5 – $5.00 Exacta Box :2,4,5
Race 9
4 – Zun Day – Ran 3rd in her last race as the favorite but she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Mayweather – Finished in the money in 2 out of his 3 career starts, drops in class today and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Into Battle – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, Breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Vekoma Velocity – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 23% of the races with 1st time Starters, Dam has 1 winners from 1 starters, Breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Fuoco Vivo
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #2 – Cervaro Della Sala
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 14% w2w – PP: Strong Rail. 2-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
6 – MORLOCK – TLRSP#+4 – Only YES horse – resume says better in 3rd up
1 – BARB – strong rail edge and missed by a nose the last and only time he ran at this level
3 – CRAZY DIAMOND – MSW dropper and room for more in just 3rd start
5 – MATINEE IDOL – another MSW dropper with 3 works for more stamina today
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalker, 14% w2w – PP: Strong Rail. 2-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
2 – AMERICAN PEARL – 2nd race improvement – was 8/5 fav in debut
5 – WHITETHORN – another with 2nd race upside – 3 works getting ready for today
6 – SONHADOR – CD 4/0-3-1 – ITM 6/6 – maybe hangs late?
1 – SENSING FLATTER – tough call over the 4 – going to take the strong rail
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5/1,4,5,6/1,5/1,3,4,5,6
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – RISUKO -SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE and by far best PAR+
5 – UP THE CREEK – resume says a big pop or small drop in 2nd up
6 – COMMANDED – won last two at CD with ease – better EP
1 – KEYANA – speed and 1st Lasix and more upside than the 2
2 – GIVE HER ANOTHER
3 – ANTIQUE SILVER
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Outside In
1 – RIVER RISE – 2nd race upside and the MSW drop – TLRSP#+10 and Top TOTAL PACE +12
5 – DREAMING OF JUNE – same story as the 1 – not the best trip in debut
3 – LADY UPSTART – get to the front and try to stay there is the plan
2 – I’M A LITTLE CRAZY – strong C ZONE – race could work for her
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,3,5
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – FREE CHOICE – TRLSP#+7 and drops in class
5 – WAR MUNNY – 1st timer with some solid but not sensational works
1 – VINO SUBITO – speed and fade in debut – should have more in 2nd start
3 – WHISKEY BEE GONE – the other 1st timer
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,3,4,5
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
1 – MISS ARLINGTON – TLRSP#+8 – SIM FAV, Pacesetting Lone E – Top Total Pace
4 – CURRENT CLIMATE – ran considerably faster in last compared to prior start at same distance
8 – PROMISES TO DANCE – gets a good trip with the EP spot – spotty 1st up
7 – BOURBON BREEZE – switch to Irad on horse that he can rate could work
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Outside In
7 – RECKLESS – All noes and has 2nd race upside beyond par
3 – WOLFCAMP – TLRSP# +5 and only his 3rd race and first time making 2 in a row
4 – ALGHERO – Brad Cox alpha angles across the Maiden board and in 2nd route
5 – MISTER PUNCH – debuted a KD – weird track – decently bet – Cox puts up Irad
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 11% w2w – PP: Rail by Far Best, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Rough
6 – FLASH WEAR – going to flying at the end – more than 3 length LS edge
5 – HUSH IT HONEY – Top C ZONE by quite a bit – has fired in 1st ups like today
4 – PRINCESS MADISON – the other YES horse with the 6 – consistent – maybe not the best off the bench
2 – CERVARO DELLA SALA – Tie SIM FAV – speed vs middle back types – but hasn’t really taken to CD yet
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/2,4,5
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Tough, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – ZUN DAY – 2nd race upside – missed by a neck in HINDY debut
1 – TALMADGE – highest rated 1st timer with decent works – tough PP
7 – INTO BATTLE – next best 1st for Cox with decent works
10 – MAYWEATHER – either of his first 2 races on dirt would be better than most anything else
