Rich and Terry are back, breaking down 9 competitive races — a perfect mix of fast dirt and firm turf — looking to keep the Pick 4 hot streak alive after cashing two straight!
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs-11-12-2025
Race 1
4 – Top Gun Tommy – In-the-money 3 of 4 Churchill starts, won last out; owns top speed at today’s distance and fastest dirt time among entrants; matched with a high-percentage winning jockey.
5 – Five o’ Somewhere – Drops in class today and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
1 – Honky Tonk Highway: Trainer wins 27% of claiming races, jockey has a high win rate, and horse showed a strong 4F workout on Nov-01.
Longshot:
6 – Gilded Ruler: Trainer wins 25% of claiming races and can go the distance.
Alternate:
7 – Scotty’s On Edge
Race 2
6 – Cape Trafalgar – Third last out vs tougher; drops in class; should benefit from shorter distance; owns top speed figure at today’s distance; fastest dirt speed in the field.
2 – Chryso Alogo – Finished 3rd as the favorite last time. Trainer has a 32%-win rate with beaten favorites returning, and he drops in class with a winning jockey today.
7 – Sutherland – Placed in 4 out of 8 Churchill races with 1 win; Trainer has a 50%-win rate on second start with the trainer, uses a top jockey, and Sutherland recently had a bullet 4F workout (Nov-01).
Longshot:
1 – Sergeant Gump – Finished in the money in 2 race out of 3 starts, winning 1 race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Born Flawless
4 – J J’s Joker
$.50 Pick 4:1,2,6,7/3,4,5,7/1,4,5/10,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
7 – Harmony Road – A closer who ran 2nd in last race at 6F and now stretches out to 7F which will be a plus and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Speighter Woman – Class drop today; returns to dirt with the fastest speed among today’s starters. Trainer and jockey have a strong win percentage.
4 – Northern Voyage – Won last race at Keenland and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Kissin Cash – Won last race at Churchill Downs, has a high % winning trainer and likes the distance.
Alternate:
6 – Her Town
8 – Bamtwentyklater
Race 4
1 – Evening News – Drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Daryl’s Bolt – Drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Tejas drops in class, switches to a top jockey, and has a trainer with a 23%-win rate in second races after claims. Tejas shares the fastest dirt speed among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Track Ranger – Won last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Jr’s Gift
Race 5-Female
10 – Temple Goddess – Ran 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating and best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
12 – Treasured Times – She is trained by a trainer with a 27%-win rate in second career races and has a high-percentage jockey.
1 – Melody Maker – Finished in the money in 1 race out of 2 career starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Cat Spring – High-percentage trainer and jockey; dam has produced one winner from two starters, including a turf winner, and could improve at a longer distance.
Alternate:
4 – Malanya
Race 6
3 – Awesome Hawaiian – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout (Nov-06)
8 – Election Night – Drops in class today; Blinkers added today and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Ledbetter – Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey; Has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and he has a high-percent winning jockey.
Longshot:
11 – Inspector Fred – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters; High % winning trainer wins 22% of dirt starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Barstool
5 – Alter Boy
$.50 Pick 4:3,5,6,7,8,11/1,3/3/1,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 7–Female
1 – Trouble in Love – Third last out as favorite; trained by a 30% winning trainer with a strong record rebounding beaten favorites. Holds top dirt speed among today’s entries and is ridden by a top jockey.
3 – Gin’s Beach Road – Is one for one at Churchill Downs; Highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Whippoorwill – Has a high % winning trainer and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
6 – Kiss Me Again – Won last race, has a trainer who wins 19% of the races when taking a horse from AW to Dirt and can handle the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Contrary
2 – Lady of Silence
Race 8–
3 – Sir Greylind – Finished in the money in 8 out of his 8 career starts, winning 3 of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Passion Rules – Has won 3 races out of 4 career starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Resilience – Finished 3rd in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a good 4F workout (Nov-05).
Longshot:
6 – Duke of Duval – Has won 2 races out of the last 3 starts, he has a high % winning trainer and has a good 5F workout (Nov-03).
Alternate:
1 – Big Blue Line
4 – Urban Planner
Bet: $20.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box :2/3 – $10.00 Exacta 3/2,6,8 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box :3/2,6,8
Race 9
12 – I’m Trouble – Finished 2nd in her debut against similar competition. She returns for a trainer who wins 30% of races after a 46–90-day break and is paired with a high-percentage jockey.
8 – Bright Skittle – Finished in the money in 3 out of his 5 career starts, early foot is a plus cutting back to 5F, Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Be Real – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start, Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Dismiss – Ran 2nd in last race and can improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
11 – Military Cruiser
9 – Western Boy
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #3 – Sir Greylind
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bonus
4 – TOP GUN TOMMY – 5 ways better – usually comes off the bench ready
5 – FIVE O’ SOMEWHERE – better early pace and drops
1 – HONKY TONK HIGHWAY – top C ZONE by a good margin – some excellent works
6 – GILDED RULER – SIM FAV and probably the most consistent in field
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2/6 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
6 – CAPE TRAFALGAR – 1 length class drop – killer LP at times – bought 2 back at 40K and now for sale a 16K – but last race winnings and today’s purse = Big Profit
2 – CHRYSO ALOGO – maybe horse for course 3/10 at CD and 2/14 anywhere else
1 – SERGEANT GUMP – SIM FAV should press lead, lone trip at CD works – rail doesn’t
7 – SUTHERLAND – similar fractions at 7f as 6f
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6/3,4,6,7/1,3,10/3,4,10,12
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 0/13 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
6 – HER TOWN – 2nd race upside puts her into the winners circle again
3 – SPEIGHTER WOMAN – only YES horse and SIM FAV – better Early and Late – fractions
7 – HARMONY ROAD – should improve in 2nd up – but track riser from Del and Colonial
4 – NORTHERN VOYAGE – solid run in last better in 2nd up? Strong works
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/3,4,7,8
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 1/18 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
1 – EVENING NEWS – going to be out front and on the rail – way against the bias
3 – TRACK RANGER – won last by 11 – better middle out
10 – JR’S GIFT – better EP and fractions – Lone P between Es and Cs
4 – TEJAS – tough call over the 5 – been running against better
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 0/8 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – MALANYA – 2nd race upside – very even race in debut – more distance helps
3 – CAT SPRING – another with 2nd race upside –
10 – TEMPLE GODDESS – Only YES horse – just missed in last – TLRSP+ 8
12 – TREASURED TIMES – tough call over the 1 – another with 2nd race upside
$0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,10,12/3,4,10/1,3,4,10,12
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bonus
3 – AWESOME HAWAIIAN – all noes – you know the routine by now – top 1ster – solid work on Oct 24 – 4f in 48 flat 2/32
7 – BARSTOOL– of all the experienced horse – TLRSP# +8 – speed, fade and cuts back in distance
9 – LOOKIN AT MAC – another 1st timer – Assmussen horse with OK works
5 – ALTER BOY – another 1st timer with OK works and tough call over the 8
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7,9/1,3,4,7/2,3/4,8,9,12
Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 1 Race – Co-Pilot on the Rail
7 – GET BACK LORETTA – could really pop in just her 3rd career start – boom or bust pick
3 – GIN’S BEACH ROAD – SIM FAV – super consistent and likes the extra distance
1 – TROUBLE IN LOVE – Top in race edge of 1 length LS and Top Total Pace
4 – CONTRARY – like the 7 – boom or bust with plenty of upside in the 3rd start
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,3,4
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 1/18 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – PASSION RULES – only non win in 4 races was the Grade II Wood Memorial
3 – SIR GREYLIND – never off the board on 8 starts – explosive LS
6 – DUKE OF DUVAL – last at CD wild be a winner – lots 5f works – will be fit
1 – BIG BLUE LINE – tied for SIM FAV – solid works – plenty of back class
Race 9: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: 1 Race won by Co Pilot on the Rail
4 – BE REAL – 2nd race upside to stakes potential
12 – I’M TROUBLE – same here. 2nd race parability with borderline stakes upside
8 – BRIGHT SKITTLE – 2X Yes horse – got to have him
9 – WESTERN BOY – 1ster with plenty of strong works and the rest are noes or other 1sters
$0.50 Trifecta: 4,8,9,12/4,8,12/4,8,9,10,12
