It’s a wild Wednesday at Churchill Downs, and today’s 9-race lineup is packed with 6-furlong maiden mayhem — unpredictable fields, lightly raced runners, and plenty of pedigree mystery. These are the kinds of races where Smart Sheets can be the difference-maker, helping you spot hidden talent, pace advantages, and patterns that aren’t obvious on paper.
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs-11-19-2025
Race 1
2 – Mountain Wolf – Drops in class today, has a trainer with a 32%-win rate when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
6 – Prototype – Trainer with a 27%-win rate in claiming races, jockey has a high win rate, and blinkers added today.
4 – Baal – High-percentage trainer wins 22% of maiden claiming races.
Longshot:
7 – Brock’s Boy – High-percentage trainer wins 22% of maiden claiming races and has a bullet 4F workout (Nov-08).
Alternate:
3 – Federal Agent
Race 2–Female
2 – Golden Degree – Drops in class; top speed at today’s distance; fastest dirt speed among starters. Trained by Linda Rice with high-percentage jockey Irad Ortiz.
7 – Demi– Ran 2nd in last race and she likes the distance.
4 – Titled Lady – Drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 5F workout (Nov-08).
Longshot:
6 – Smart With Heart – Finished in the money in 7 out of her last 8 starts, winning 2 of the races and, has a high % winning trainer and likes the distance.
Alternate:
5 – Progeny
1 – Sense of Pearl
$.50 Pick 4:2,4,6,7/2,5,7,9/6,7/1,4,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
2 – Two Seven O – Finished second as the favorite last time. Trainer wins 22% with returning beaten favorites. Drops in class. Fastest dirt speed in today’s field; jockey has high win rate.
5 – Silent Horizon: Finished in the money in 2 of 4 starts. Trainer wins 24% when moving horses from maiden to maiden claiming events.
7 – Jock Frost – He has a high % winning trainer wins 19% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming event and has a good 4F workout (Nov-12).
Longshot:
9 – Vino Subito – Drops in class today; Trainer wins 24% of the Maiden Claiming races and Blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
3 – Secreto Uno
Race 4
7 – Capital Connection – Ran 2nd in last race, best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Aerate – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, can improve while returning to a sprint and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Miracle On Central – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Saint Shance – Ran 3rd in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Du Monde
Race 5-Female
4 – Just an Opinion – Lots of trouble in last race and finished poorly so I will ignore that race; High-percentage trainer and switches to a high % jockey and has a bullet 5F workout (Nov-08).
8 – Streaking – Won last race at Churchill Downs; Early speed running style helps chances and has a high-percentage jockey.
1 – Tartaria – Won last race at Churchill Downs; Highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Wonder of You – Finished 5th as the favorite last time. Trainer wins 22% with returning beaten favorites. Holds top speed figure for today’s distance and fastest dirt speed among entrants.
Alternate:
10 – Sensible Choice
Race 6–Female
3 – Glazin’ Fury – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating and has a high % trainer and jockey.
2 – Lockdownyourtown drops in class today. She’s trained by a trainer with a 40%-win rate in maiden-to-maiden claiming races and recently logged a bullet 4F workout (Nov-08).
5 – You’re in Heaven – First time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Silvertown – Throw out last race because of trouble during the race but finished 2nd the previous race and has a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – G One Bound
11 – Appealing Mischief
$.50 Pick 4:2,3,5,6/1,3,5,8/5,8,9/9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7–
8 – Intangible – Trained by a high % winning trainer with a 32%-win rate when taking a horse from a sprint to a route and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Leedu – Placed third in last start, can improve at the longer distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Bella Street – Rail post is winning at a 20% clip, May improve at the longer distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Nycon – Has the highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Flash of Freedom
4 – Red Rainbow
Race 8–Female
5 – Dame Laura – Ran 2nd in last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Aggressive Lime – Beaten only 2- lengths vs tougher in last start, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Back Ring Buzz: 3rd last out vs similar; fastest turf speed in field; top trainer/jockey combo; strong 4F workout (Nov-08).
Longshot:
2 – Conceit – Won last race and has a high-percentage trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Diablo Shiraz
1 – My Lady Jbella
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box :5/9 – $10.00 Exacta 5/2,8,9 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box :5/2,8,9
Race 9
10 – Patriot Moon – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Speed rating earned in only start labels him a threat’ has a high-percentage jockey and has a bullet 4F workout (Nov-10).
9 – Non Conforming – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Outlaw Empire – High-percentage trainer and jockey, early speed suits shorter distance, and recent strong 4F workout (Nov-08).
Longshot:
1 – Righteous – Debut runner; dam produced 2 winners including a stakes winner. Suitable breeding for sprints, leading trainer and jockey, and posted a solid 5F workout (Nov-11).
Alternate:
7 – My Milestone
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #5 – Dame Laura
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 4% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – MOUNTAIN WOLF – TLRSP#+ 8, LP +21, Top Total Pace +18
4 – BAAL – should compete for the lead – better 5 ways – only 3rd race
6 – PROTOTYPE – got to give a 2nd time starter a chance vs these
1 – BAGG O TIME – probably more consistent than the rest
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
4 – TITLED LADY – Biggest Class Dropper –top PAR+ and a solid work prepping
2 – GOLDEN DEGREE – SIM FAV – first time in a long time making 3 starts in a row – Linda Rice 39% on the claim and drop – very profitable if she wins and is claimed
7 – DEMI – 3rd up – ITM 6/7 at the distance, just needs a better start – Top C ZONE
3 – WE’LL DO IT LIVE – Top Total Pace and should be forward
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7/2,3,10,11/5,6,7,10/1,4
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
2 – TWO SEVEN O – only YES horse – TLRSP#+16 – could show more in 2nd up
10 – HEAVENLY MATCH – Top 1st rated starter vs all noes
11 – I FORGOT TO ASK – got to give a 2nd timer a chance vs these – best published work
3 – SECRETO UNO – biggest class dropper and a strong chance to be the pacesetter
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,10,11
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
10 – TEMPUS PRIME – most 2nd race upside and biggest class dropper
5 – CARDINAL UNION – 2nd most 2nd race upside and the other class dropper
7 – CAPITAL CONNECTION – almost all of his race would win here – been off for a year
6 – AERATE – closer with a +6 LS edge and by far best C ZONE
$5 Exacta Key Box: 10/5,6,7
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
4 – JUST AN OPINION – usually comes off the bench ready – decent work prepping – top TP
1 – TARTARIA – TLRSP#+5 – better ATB in last and a maintenance work since
8 – STREAKING – won last – makes 2 starts in a row for the 1st time in a year – finally healthy
6 – SPOTAWAY – SIM FAV that should challenge for the lead but 0/3 at CD so far
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
2 – LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN – 2nd race upside – great works
5 – YOU’RE IN HEAVEN – top rated 1ster – decent works
3 – GLAZIN’ FURY – TLRSP# +7 and could be the leader – Maybe 2 horse
4 – ROCKIN THE LANE – we’ll go within another 1st timer
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5/1,2,3,5,8/9/1,5,7,9,10,12
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/3,4,5
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Tough, 8+ Bonus
Taking all 2nd timers in order of their 2nd Race PARability scores
3 – NYCON – 95 – YES horse
2 – FLASH OF FREEDOM – 94 – YES horse
5 – LEEDU – 87
1 – BELLA STREET – 86
8 – INTANGIBLE – 85
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,3,5
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 2/8 w2w – PP: None from Inside 3, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
9 – AGGRESSIVE LIME – drops from a Grade II with Top Total Pace +11
5 – DAME LAURA – much better EP in last – boom or bust in 1st time making 2 starts in a row
2 – CONCEIT – Cox and Geroux – won last by a lot in last
8 – BACK RING BUZZ – resume says 2nd up should be better than the 1st – a pair of works
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Almost Fair
10 – PATRIOT MOON – Lone YES with borderline stakes ability
12 – BLESSED WARRIOR – 2.95 with back to back bullets
7 – MY MILESTONE – 2.96 1st timer with some strong works too
5 – C MCGRIFF – another 1ster with a bullet and a go
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,7,10,12
