We roll into Thanksgiving Eve with 10 races at Churchill Downs, featuring a balanced mix of turf and dirt that should keep things interesting from start to finish. Big fields, competitive matchups, and plenty of opportunities to find value before the holiday.
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs-11-26-2025
Race 1
1 – Berlinwin – Ran 2nd in last race; Rail post is winning at 22% clip; switches to a high% trainer and he has high % winning jockey.
2 – P. O. S. H. Posh – High-percentage trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Denise Says No – Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey; Has a high % winning trainer; has a bullet 5F workout (Nov-18).
Longshot:
4 – My Secret Dreams – Ran 3rd in last race; High-percentage trainer wins 22% of maiden claiming races and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Zen Yoga
Race 2–Female
8 – Mindy’s Union – Finished 3rd last time; owns the fastest dirt speed among today’s contenders. Trainer wins 33% with first-time claimers, and the jockey has a high win percentage.
5 – R Pretty Kitty – Drops in class today; She has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – B D’s Angel – Finished 2nd last race; Early speed running style helps chances and likes the distance.
Longshot:
7 – Extreme Dream – Finished in the money in the last 5 starts, winning 2 of the races and, has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Jerseys Parade
$.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7,8/6,9/2,5,6/2,7,8,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
9 – Ohoopee – Won her debut race at Keenland; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Valala – Finished in the money in her 4 career starts, winning 1 of the races and finishing 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Ashkenazi – Finished in the money in 5 out of her 6 career starts, winning 2 of the races and, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Little Sam’s – Finished 3rd last race; has a trainer who wins 17% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
Alternate:
7 – Wrong Shoes
Race 4
2 – Brave Blend – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Purse Thief – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and can handle the distance.
6 – Tis Charming – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Atlantic Dancer – Ran 3rd in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Express Line
7 – Atlantic Dancer
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6/2,7,8,12/4,5,6,12/3,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
2 – Miss Soothsayer – Highest last race speed rating; High-percentage trainer and jockey.
8 – Point in Time – First time starter who has a high-percentage trainer and jockey and has a bullet 4F workout (Nov-20).
7 – Naughty by Nature – Was the favorite in her debut race but has a has a high % winning trainer who wins 47% of the races when bringing a beaten horse back to race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Ships Inn – First time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Nanzig
4 – Bourbon Notes
Race 6
12 – Don’t Ghost Me – Finished in the money in 4 out of her 5 career starts, running 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – D Bigalow – Finished in the money in 2 out of his 3 starts at Churchill Downs; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
5 – Game and Smart – Ran 3rd in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Wobbegong – Ran 2nd in last race only missing by a neck; Highest last race speed rating; Bullet 4F workout (Nov-16).
Alternate:
11 – Homer’s Odyssey
Race 7–Female
8 – Motown Dynamic – Won the last 6 races in a row; High-percentage trainer and jockey and loves the distance.
3 – Devil Pays in Gold – Finished in the money in 9 races out of the last 10 starts, winning 4 races; Has a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Outrageously – Won 3 races out of 6 starts at Churchill Downs; Can handle the distance.
Longshot:
6 – Altered Shot – Won last race at Churchill Downs. Can handle the distance.
Alternate:
7 – Little Blaze
$.50 Pick 4:3,8/1,3,9,12,13/3,7/1,3,7,9,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 8–Female
12 – Bonne Sante: High-percentage jockey up; breeding indicates strong turf preference; trainer wins 26% with first-time blinkers, which are being added today.
3 – Sharp Mindset – Highest last race speed rating; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Cynical Humor: She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
13 – Cinq a Sept – First time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey; has a good 4F workout (Nov-20) and a bullet 4F workout (Nov-14).
Alternate:
9 – Tap Now
10 – Gerber Daisy
Race 9-Female
3 – Golden Irish – Won 2 races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Going Steady – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning jockey and can handle the distance.
5 – Trust Fund Philly: Finished in the money in her 4 career starts, winning 1 of the races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Has a good 4F workout (Nov-18).
Longshot:
8 – Speighter Woman – Won last race at Churchill Downs; Has a high-percentage trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Spun Candy
4 – Murphy Girl
Bet: $20.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box :3/7 – $10.00 Exacta 3/5,7,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,5,7
Race 10-Female
7 – Romantic Dancer – Won 3 races out of 7 career starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Brooklynn Drew – 2 wins in 3 Churchill Downs races; strong early speed, top dirt speed (tied), and high-percentage trainer and jockey.
11 – Crazy Cami: Beaten only 2- lengths (on Turf) in last start; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); top trainer/jockey combo; strong 4F workout (Nov-15).
Longshot:
3 – Showers – Won last race at Churchill Downs and switches to a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Kentucky Smokeshow
4 – Sister Carlie
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – #3 – Golden Irish
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
2 – P. O. S. H. POSH – only YES horse, better ATB – decent works
1 – BERLINWIN – going long for the 1st time – 3rd start is boom or bust
9 – FROSTY FOR EVER – MSW dropper – ok work between
6 – DENISE SAYS NO – the other MSW dropper and Irad
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,9
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ almost fair
5 – R PRETTY KITTY – TLRSP#+6 with a 1 length LS edge and should be close to the pace
8 – MINDY’S UNION – lowest level of short career – 2nd up could be a ?
6 – B D’S ANGEL – Top Total Pace – faster by almost 2 seconds in last
3 – JERSEYS PARADE – strongest C Zone – should be involved from the beginning
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,8/2,9/2,5,6,9/7,8,9,12
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 3 races, 2 w2w – PP: 2 from rail and 1 from 4-7
9 – OHOOPEE – TLRSP#+11 – with top Total Pace +12 – could be pacesetter – 2nd pace Parability
2 – ASHKENAZI – the other YES horse with the 9 – winner 2/2 at CD
6 – VALALA – should be forward and drops, just needs to improve a touch
5 – MAGIC SEEKER – better middle out with better early fractions
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,6,9
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 6% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – BRAVE BLEND – biggest class dropper – even money SIM FAV – Top Total Pace +7
5 – PURSE THIEF – been very close in last 2 – could be better a little better in 3rd up
6 – TIS CHARMING – unquestionably consistent and could be better in 2nd up
9 – SAND CAST – could be on the lead – better pace middle out – 3rd up at a price
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6,9/7,8,12/4,9,11,12/3,8
Race 5: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 1/3 w2w – PP: 2 from rail, 1 from 8+
8 – POINT IN TIME – bullet and go – 47 – fastest of 25
12 – SHIPS INN – Irad and look at the Nov 3rd 4f work in 47.2 – fastest of 40
7 – NAUGHTY BY NATURE – speed and fade in debut – as the 6/5 fav – let’s see
9 – YES JULIA – could have some EP according to a few 3f works
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 7,8,9,12
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ almost fair
9 – FIGHT TIME – first timer w/ 2.97 and back bullet vs all noes and maybes – 4f in 46.3
12 – DON’T GHOST ME – very consistent so far at a level close to PAR – gets Irad today
11 – HOMER’S ODYSSEY – resume says considerably better in 2nd up – better EP
4 – WOBBEGONG – doesn’t need to improve move off of last – bullet between races
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,9,11,12
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ almost fair
8 – MOTOWN DYNAMIC – TLRSP# +18 – winner 6 in row – regression possible
3 – DEVIL PAYS IN GOLD – highly consistent and this race should fit with top C ZONE
4 – OUTRAGEOUSLY – horse for the course – 3/6 and just 1 win in 7 elsewhere
7 – LITTLE BLAZE – the last of the YES horses and has some EP
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,8/3,5,11,12,13/3,5/1,3,7,9,11
Race 8: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 1/3 w2w – PP: 2 from rail, 1 from 8+
13 – CINQ A SEPT – 3/3 firsters vs all noes and 1 Parability – 4f work at TP 46.3
11 – KENTUCKY MULE – 2.96
3 – SHARP MINDSET – 2nd race parability of 89 – barely above 87
5 – JUST A MINUTE – bullet and go 1ster 4f in 47 – fastest of 25
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,5,11,13
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ almost fair
3 – GOLDEN IRISH – SIM FAV – winner 2 in a row and has some upside as she shortens up
5 – TRUST FUND PHILLY – fires off the bench – really good works prepping
1 – SPUN CANDY– TLRSP#+7 back in June – Top Total Pace – OK work
7 – GOING STEADY – top closer – tough call over the 8 – just seems to a little more upside
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Strong, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
7 – ROMANTIC DANCER – heavy SIM FAV and Top Total Pace of almost a length – Irad and shortens up
9 – BROOKLYNN DREW – very likely pacesetter in a shortened field – better in 2nd up
11 – CRAZY CAMI – last of the YES horse and will be closing in round 2
3 – SHOWERS – won her lone CD run in last and has a good work there since
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,3,9,11
