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Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs – 4-29-2026
Race 1–
1 – Empire Builder: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – National Eclipse: Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Tres Soles: Finished in the money in the last 5 races out of 6 starts; Has a high % winning jockey; Can go the distance.
Longshot:
3 – Charbon: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Quokka
Race 2–
5 – Highly Flammable: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Real Macho: Won last race at Gulfstream Park; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when drops off win; Has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Barksdale: Throw out the last race as he had plenty of problems; One for one at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Mister Mmmmm: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Apr-22).
Alternate:
2 – Chiringo
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6/7,8,10,12/4,6,7/4,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
12 – Bush: First time starter; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-26).
7 – Ruiva: First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
10 – Champagne Dream: First time starter whose Sire wins 100% with 1st time Starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Just Epic: First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 Traction Park
6 – By Grace
Race 4-
4 – Turbo Launch: Ran 2nd in last race; Can improve while returning to a route; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Feral: 3rd (dirt) last out; Turf return helps; Trainer 19% (maiden to maiden claiming); Solid 4F work (Apr-21).
6 – Abbi Fede: Drops in class today; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Apr-21).
Longshot:
8 – Newman: Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
1 – Traverse City
5 – Underappreciated
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6,7,8/4,10/3,4,5,7/3,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
10 – Ribadeo: Third in 1 of 2 career starts; should improve back sprinting with blinkers on; top trainer/jockey; three straight bullet works.
4 – Diagram: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Scarce: Has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the races when taking a horse from maiden to maiden claiming races and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Bourbon and Spice: Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
3 – Go Go Playmate
5 – Santiana
Race 6-
4 – Waggley: He also won his debut race at Keenland; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Peak Perspective: Ran 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the Non-Graded Stake races; Has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Super Saiyajin: Finished 2nd in his debut race at Keenland; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – American Pope: Finished 5th in his debut race at Keenland; Has a good jockey.
Race -7-Female
9 – Roja: Finished in the money in the last 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 2 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – I’m Mo Joke: Likes Churchill Downs, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts, at today’s distance has finished in the money in 86% of the races, winning 29% of the starts.
11 – Tempting Eve: Won 2 of last 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Gladriel: Won 4 of last 7 races; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Cart Girl Sam
$.50 Pick 4: 3,9,11,12/3,5/1,2/2,4,6,9,11,12 – Cost $48.00
Race-8-
3 – Sharons Beach: Finished in the money in the 4 races out of 5 career starts, running 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Gordon’s Legacy: Finished in the money in the 2 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.
4 – Mo Work: Won his last race at Keenland; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.
Longshot:
9 – Sweet Freedom: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
8 – Speedstorm
1 – Norwich
Bet: $20.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 3/4,5,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,5
Race 9-
1 – No Bien Ni Mal: Has won both races since he arrived from South America; Has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Parchment Party: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Highest last race speed rating; Likes the distance.
8 – Wynstock: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts at Aqueduct; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
7 – Johny’s Rendezvous: Finished in the money in the last 5 races out of 7 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Interceptor
Race 10-Female
9 – Twolatebabydoll: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 2 starts at Churchill Downs; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Never Really Know: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the claiming races; Has a high % winning jockeys.
11 – Honor Azteca: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Austin High: Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when taking a horse from sprint to route; Has a high % winning jockeys.
Alternate:
4 – Oak Alley
12 – Heart Spin
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #3 – Sharons Beach
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Struggled, 8+ Fair
1 – EMPIRE BUILDER – on the lead with top C ZONE and biggest class dropper
5 – TRES SOLES – some of the most CD success here – a lot are OHfers or haven’t run there
8 – NATIONAL ECLIPSE – TLRSP# +4 – switches to Irad but 0-3 at CD and pedestrian works
7 – QUOKKA – grades out as Top SIM SP# and a little overlay
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,7,8
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Tough
6 – MISTER MMMMM – on the lead by himself – forget the last – strong CD work – lone DROP
5 – HIGHLY FLAMMABLE – 3SP# increases with TLRSP# +4 and Top Total Pace of 2 lengths
1 – BARKSDALE – SIM FAV with the top PAR+ and most back class
2 – CHIRINGO – tough call over the 4 – but a YES vs Maybe and longest odds in 5 horse field
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6/4,5,7,8,9,12/4,6/3,4,8,10
Race 3: 4 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
12 – BUSH – only with a back bullet
5 – SUMMER DREAM – 3.00 first timer at a price
7 – RUIVA – 3rd rated 1ster
9 – EPICURE – 4th rated firster and so on…
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,7,9,12
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers/Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ a little better than the rail
6 – ABBI FEDE – only YES horse = Must Have
4 – TURBO LAUNCH – could be out on the lead and top Total Pace of 1 ½ lengths
12 – BEARISTER – Maybe horse and the biggest class dropper
7 – FERAL – run back to his lone turf race could be good enough
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,6,12/3,4,8,9,10/4/4,5,7,9,11,12
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus
10 – RIBADEO – 3rd race upside and working the best at CD
4 – DIAGRAM – only maybe horse – better EP/FRACTIONS – Tops a few Smart Sheets lists
8 – BOURBON AND SPICE – out on the lead with top – but lukewarm – C ZONE
3 – GO GO PLAYMATE – was chalk in last – just 3rd race and flips to Irad
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,8,10
Race 6: 5 Furlongs – no races – but sprints favor speed and PPs are fair
4 – WAGGLEY – Ward Horse – Rosario – 2nd Race Parability – 1/9 odds
7 – PEAK PERSPECTIVE – 2nd race upside
5 – SUPER SAIYAJIN – 3rd race rebound potential
3 – AMERICAN POPE – 4th of 4
Race 7: 5 Furlongs Turf – Early Speed, 2/5 w2w – 2 from Rail, 2/3 None, 2 from 4-7, and 1 from 8+
7 – SATIN BLUE – working out like he is running from the cops – standout C ZONE
9 – ROJA – TLRSP#+4 – should be a part of the EP and Top TOTAL PACE – been off a long time
11 – TEMPTING EVE – outside – maybe on the lead and 5 ways better
5 – JUSTINQUESO – just missed the last time he ran here – closer
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,7,9,11/3,4,5/1,2/6,9,11,12
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 8% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
3 – SHARONS BEACH – most consistent high end horse – Irad – Big SIM FAV
4 – MO WORK – runs anything remotely close to his last race and it’s EZ
5 – GORDON’S LEGACY – Santa Anita horse with upside – skeptical of those S CA speed #s
8 – SPEEDSTORM – tough call over a bunch of other – just more upside potential in 3rd start
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,5,8
Race 9: 1 ½ Miles – None at the Distance
1 – NO BIEN NI MAL – undefeated since coming up from South America with a Pair of 100+ speed figure – been off since Sept – but rocks in the rain 3/5
2 – PARCHMENT PARTY – has a couple of wins at CD and is 1/1 at the distance – huge LP
6 – MAKES SENSE – Top C ZONE by Plenty – has some solid late kick and good price
8 – WYNSTOCK – 3rd up with Irad – is essentially AoN 22/6-0-1
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,8
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ A little better than the Rail
12 – HEART SPIN – SIM FAV and top SIM SP# – Top PAR+ better in 2nd up
6 – NEVER REALLY KNOW – Top Total Pace and could have the most upside
9 – TWOLATEBABYDOLL – lowest level of her career – 39% for Alber Stall – huge Alpha
11 – HONOR AZTECA – much better on turf – downgrade if it’s moved to dirt
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 6,9,11,12
