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Churchill Downs Picks & Analysis: Smart Sheets, Bias Insights, and Rich’s Winning Strategy for Every Race

Churchill Downs features a competitive 10-race card today, setting up what could be a wide-open and unpredictable day with the potential for big prices. With deep fields and several races lacking clear standouts, today’s card offers opportunities to uncover value using a structured, data-driven approach. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace scenarios that could create upset potential Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds compared to the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators by surface and distance With multiple races presenting competitive dynamics and potential pace pressure, the focus is on identifying which horses can take advantage of race shape and which runners may be overlooked by the public despite having the right profile to win. This is a data-driven analysis designed to highlight where races are most likely to be won—and where value opportunities may exist across today’s Churchill Downs card.

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Terry’s Picks

Churchill Downs – 4-29-2026

Race 1

1 – Empire Builder: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

8 – National Eclipse: Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

5 – Tres Soles: Finished in the money in the last 5 races out of 6 starts; Has a high % winning jockey; Can go the distance.

Longshot:

3 – Charbon: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

7 – Quokka

Race 2

5 – Highly Flammable: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

4 – Real Macho: Won last race at Gulfstream Park; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when drops off win; Has a high % winning jockey.

1 – Barksdale: Throw out the last race as he had plenty of problems; One for one at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

6 – Mister Mmmmm: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Apr-22).

Alternate:

2 – Chiringo

$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6/7,8,10,12/4,6,7/4,10 – Cost $48.00 

Race 3-Female

12 – Bush: First time starter; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-26).

7 – Ruiva: First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

10 – Champagne Dream: First time starter whose Sire wins 100% with 1st time Starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

8 – Just Epic: First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

11 Traction Park

6 – By Grace

Race 4-

4 – Turbo Launch: Ran 2nd in last race; Can improve while returning to a route; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Feral: 3rd (dirt) last out; Turf return helps; Trainer 19% (maiden to maiden claiming); Solid 4F work (Apr-21).

6 – Abbi Fede: Drops in class today; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Apr-21).

Longshot:

8 – Newman: Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Alternate:

1 – Traverse City

5 – Underappreciated

$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6,7,8/4,10/3,4,5,7/3,9 – Cost $48.00 

Race 5-Female

10 – Ribadeo: Third in 1 of 2 career starts; should improve back sprinting with blinkers on; top trainer/jockey; three straight bullet works.

4 – Diagram: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

9 – Scarce: Has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the races when taking a horse from maiden to maiden claiming races and has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

8 – Bourbon and Spice: Finished 3rd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances.

Alternate:

3 – Go Go Playmate

5 – Santiana

Race 6-

4 – Waggley: He also won his debut race at Keenland; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Peak Perspective: Ran 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the Non-Graded Stake races; Has a high % winning jockey.

5 – Super Saiyajin: Finished 2nd in his debut race at Keenland; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

3 – American Pope: Finished 5th in his debut race at Keenland; Has a good jockey.

Race -7-Female

9 – Roja: Finished in the money in the last 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 2 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – I’m Mo Joke: Likes Churchill Downs, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts, at today’s distance has finished in the money in 86% of the races, winning 29% of the starts.

11 – Tempting Eve: Won 2 of last 3 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

12 – Gladriel: Won 4 of last 7 races; Has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

4 – Cart Girl Sam

$.50 Pick 4: 3,9,11,12/3,5/1,2/2,4,6,9,11,12 – Cost $48.00

Race-8-

3 – Sharons Beach: Finished in the money in the 4 races out of 5 career starts, running 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Gordon’s Legacy: Finished in the money in the 2 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.

4 – Mo Work: Won his last race at Keenland; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.

Longshot:

9 – Sweet Freedom: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Strong jockey stats.

Alternate:

8 – Speedstorm

1 – Norwich

Bet: $20.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box:3/5 – $10.00 Exacta: 3/4,5,9 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,5

Race 9-

1 – No Bien Ni Mal: Has won both races since he arrived from South America; Has a high % winning jockey.

2 – Parchment Party: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Highest last race speed rating; Likes the distance.

8 – Wynstock: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts at Aqueduct; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Longshot:

7 – Johny’s Rendezvous: Finished in the money in the last 5 races out of 7 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

5 – Interceptor

Race 10-Female

9 – Twolatebabydoll: Finished in the money in 2 races out of 2 starts at Churchill Downs; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

6 – Never Really Know: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the claiming races; Has a high % winning jockeys.

11 – Honor Azteca: Finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

2 – Austin High: Has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when taking a horse from sprint to route; Has a high % winning jockeys.

Alternate:

4 – Oak Alley

12 – Heart Spin

Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #3 – Sharons Beach

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 1 Mile – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Struggled, 8+ Fair

1 – EMPIRE BUILDER – on the lead with top C ZONE and biggest class dropper

5 – TRES SOLES – some of the most CD success here – a lot are OHfers or haven’t run there

8 – NATIONAL ECLIPSE – TLRSP# +4 – switches to Irad but 0-3 at CD and pedestrian works

7 – QUOKKA – grades out as Top SIM SP# and a little overlay

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,7,8

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Small Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Tough

6 – MISTER MMMMM – on the lead by himself – forget the last – strong CD work – lone DROP

5 – HIGHLY FLAMMABLE – 3SP# increases with TLRSP# +4 and Top Total Pace of 2 lengths

1 – BARKSDALE – SIM FAV with the top PAR+ and most back class

2 – CHIRINGO – tough call over the 4 – but a YES vs Maybe and longest odds in 5 horse field

$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6/4,5,7,8,9,12/4,6/3,4,8,10

Race 3: 4 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair

12 – BUSH – only with a back bullet

5 – SUMMER DREAM – 3.00 first timer at a price

7 – RUIVA – 3rd rated 1ster

9 – EPICURE – 4th rated firster and so on…

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,7,9,12

Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers/Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ a little better than the rail

6 – ABBI FEDE – only YES horse = Must Have

4 – TURBO LAUNCH – could be out on the lead and top Total Pace of 1 ½ lengths

12 – BEARISTER – Maybe horse and the biggest class dropper

7 – FERAL – run back to his lone turf race could be good enough

$0.50 Pick 4: 4,6,12/3,4,8,9,10/4/4,5,7,9,11,12

Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus

10 – RIBADEO – 3rd race upside and working the best at CD

4 – DIAGRAM – only maybe horse – better EP/FRACTIONS – Tops a few Smart Sheets lists

8 – BOURBON AND SPICE – out on the lead with top – but lukewarm –  C ZONE

3 – GO GO PLAYMATE – was chalk in last – just 3rd race and flips to Irad

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,8,10 

Race 6: 5 Furlongs – no races – but sprints favor speed and PPs are fair

4 – WAGGLEY – Ward Horse – Rosario – 2nd Race Parability – 1/9 odds

7 – PEAK PERSPECTIVE – 2nd race upside

5 – SUPER SAIYAJIN – 3rd race rebound potential

3 – AMERICAN POPE – 4th of 4

Race 7: 5 Furlongs Turf – Early Speed, 2/5 w2w – 2 from Rail, 2/3 None, 2 from 4-7, and 1 from 8+

7 – SATIN BLUE – working out like he is running from the cops – standout C ZONE

9 – ROJA – TLRSP#+4 – should be a part of the EP and Top TOTAL PACE – been off a long time

11 – TEMPTING EVE – outside – maybe on the lead and 5 ways better

5 – JUSTINQUESO – just missed the last time he ran here – closer

$0.50 Pick 4: 5,7,9,11/3,4,5/1,2/6,9,11,12

Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 8% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best

3 – SHARONS BEACH – most consistent high end horse – Irad – Big SIM FAV

4 – MO WORK – runs anything remotely close to his last race and it’s EZ

5 – GORDON’S LEGACY – Santa Anita horse with upside – skeptical of those S CA speed #s

8 – SPEEDSTORM – tough call over a bunch of other – just more upside potential in 3rd start

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,5,8

Race 9: 1 ½ Miles – None at the Distance

1 – NO BIEN NI MAL  –  undefeated since coming up from South America with a Pair of 100+ speed figure – been off since Sept – but rocks in the rain 3/5

2 – PARCHMENT PARTY – has a couple of wins at CD and is 1/1 at the distance – huge LP

6 – MAKES SENSE – Top C ZONE by Plenty – has some solid late kick and good price

8 – WYNSTOCK – 3rd up with Irad – is essentially AoN 22/6-0-1

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,8

Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ A little better than the Rail

12 – HEART SPIN – SIM FAV and top SIM SP#  – Top PAR+ better in 2nd up

6 – NEVER REALLY KNOW – Top Total Pace and could have the most upside

9 – TWOLATEBABYDOLL – lowest level of her career – 39% for Alber Stall – huge Alpha

11 – HONOR AZTECA – much better on turf – downgrade if it’s moved to dirt

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 6,9,11,12

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