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Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs – 4-30-2026
Race 1–
6 – You Ain’t Poppn: Finished in the money in the last 3 races, winning 1 start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Star’s Image: Finished 2nd in his last 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Bullet 3F workout (Apr-25).
1 – Banned for Life: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
7 – Tejon Pass: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Blinkers added today.
Alternate:
5 – Keep On Moving
2 – Optical
Race 2–Female
5 – Shared Vision: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can handle the distance.
2 – She’z the Law: Return to Dirt may help; Good 4F workout (Apr-20); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
3 – Cotillard: Return to Dirt offers hope for improvement.
$.50 Pick 4: 5/2,3,5,6,9/4,8,10,11,12/1,4,12 – Cost $45.00
Race 3-Female
5 – Spotted: Finished 3rd in only start; Can improve at the longer distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Kopiana: Has a high % winning jockey; Has a trainer who wins 19% of the races the 2nd time Lasix.
3 – My Secret Dreams: Finished 3rd (on AW) in last race; Has a trainer who wins 17% of the Maiden Claiming races he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
9 – Souperrazzledazzle: Beaten only 1-1/12 lengths in the last race.
Alternate:
2 – Fresh Out
Race 4-Female
4 – Lexico: Finished 3rdi n last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
11 – Plot: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Apr-22).
8 – Theoretical: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Blinkers added today.
Longshot:
10 – Lady Faye: Finished 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternate:
12 – Breaking Hearts
13 – English Harbour
$.50 Pick 4: 4,8,10,11/1,4,6,12/4,5,6/1,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-
12 – Tregetour: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races in the race 2nd after claiming and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Cliffs of Dover: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Chasing Gray: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint to Route.
Longshot:
6 – Big Rog: Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Old Trace
3 – Jinxzi
Race 6-
4 – Diamond Gem Aa: Finished in the money in 15 races out of 15 career starts, winning 10 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Rb Badonkadonk: Won the last 3 races in a row; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Highh Country: Finished in the money in the last 4 races out of 4 career starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Highh Stakes: Finished 2nd in his last race; Can improve while returning to Dirt.
Alternate:
1 – Wma Wild Kisses
8 – Wma Smoke Signal
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,6/1,4,5,7/2,6/4,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race -7-Female
1 – Honfleur: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Can go the distance.
5 – Heavenly Melody: Finished in the money in 2 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4 – Cape Sounion: Finished poorly as favorite last race after a bad start but has a high % winning trainer wins 33% with beaten favorites.; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Vow to Resiliency: Finished in the money in the last 3 races; Closed in the last race only missing the win by ½ lengths at mile and now extends out to a 1-1/16; Good 5F workout (Apr-22).
Alternate:
9 – Wing Queen
Race-8-Female
6 – Jensco: Won last race at Santa Anita; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Apr-19).
2 – Our Shenanigan: Won 2 races in a row and now going for a hat trick; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Can go the distance.
1 – Angel Bella: Finished 3rd in last race; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Longshot:
7 – Madeline’s Promise: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the Sprints.
Alternate:
3 – Late to the Game
5 – Tearin’up My Heart
Bet: $20.00 Win: 6 – $10.00 Exacta Box:2/6 – $10.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,7 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,6
Race 9-
9 – West Hollywood: Won last race at Fairgrounds; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Lagynos: Finished in the money in the last 9 races out of 10 starts, winning 3 races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Quatrocento: Won last race at Fairgrounds; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Minaret Station: Won 3 races out of the last 4 career starts; Likes the distance.
Alternate:
3 – Balnikhov
$.50 Pick 4: 8,9/1,2,6,8,9/5,8/2,3,6,7,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 10-
9 – Maximum Bourbon: Finished in the money in the last 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 3 race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Back Em Up: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 4F workout (Apr-17).
2 – Built: Won last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
1 – Concrete Glory: Beaten only 1-1/4 lengths in last start; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
8 – Bourbon Bash
Race 11-
8 – Slay the Day: Won 3 races out of the last 5 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Cy Fair: Finished 3rd in last race; Best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.
7 – Midnight Martini: Finished 2nd as favorite last race but has a high % winning trainer wins 26% with beaten favorites.; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Final Accord: Won 2 races out of 3 career starts; Likes the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Ifyousaidso
Race 12-
6 – Prime Power: Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Mizzou: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden-to-maiden claiming: Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Good 4F workout (Apr-23).
3 – Royal Sapphire: Finished 3rd in only start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Lasix added.
Longshot:
2 – Hellacious: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Castle Run
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #6 – Jensco
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus
6 – YOU AIN’T POPPN – big move up in only other 2nd up – cuts back
1 – BANNED FOR LIFE – TLRSP# +3 – better EP/FRACTIONS and drops
4 – STAR’S IMAGE – on the lead +5 ES – and Top TOTAL PACE – fast 3f work
2 – OPTICAL – SIM FAV – strong PAR+ and biggest dropper
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus
5 – SHARED VISION – TLRSP#+14 – could be ES and +6 Top TOTAL PACE +6
2 – SHE’Z THE LAW – looks much better than the 3
3 – COTILLARD – 20 races with 1 win and third – adds to hitting the board today
Race 3: 1 Mile – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Struggled, 8+ Fair
5 – SPOTTED – 2nd race upside past par for a field of noes and maybes and drops
6 – KOPIANA – on the lead with the 3rd race bounce back past par too
9 – SOUPERRAZZLEDAZZLE – has the biggest in race edge of +11 LS
3 – MY SECRET DREAMS – by far best C ZONE and the closest to par -1
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers/Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ a little better than the rail
11 – PLOT – MSW dropper and has a +8 LS edge – will be rolling, rolling, rolling
13 – ENGLISH HARBOUR – 2nd race parability way past par – well bet in debut
3 – DEVICES – 1st timer versus all noes and maybes
8 – THEORETICAL – MSW dropper that doesn’t need to improve much in 2nd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,8,11,13/3,6,8/4,6/1,5,7,10
Race 5: 1 Mile – Stalkers, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Struggled, 8+ Fair
8 – ANDO – TLRSP# +6 and just needs a tiny bit of improvement in 2nd up
3 – JINXZI – SIM FAV – maybe horse – held speed longer in last
6 – BIG ROG – only YES horse and drops – you have to have him
1 – CHASING GRAY – biggest class dropper – could be on the pace with top C ZONE
$5 Exacta Key Box: 8/1,3,4,6
Race 6: 1 ¼ Miles – Arabian Horses – Good luck
6 – RB BADONKADONK
4 – DIAMOND GEM AA
5 – HIGHH COUNTRY
3 – HIGHH STAKES
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Stalkers/Closers, 17% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ a little better than the rail
7 – VOW TO RESILIENCY – TLRSP#+4 – YES Horse -SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE +6
5 – HEAVENLY MELODY – 3rd race bounce back and back to back 2nds
1 – HONFLEUR – Prat and Brown on a YES horse
10 – BOURBIANA – let’s try the 430k first time starter with solid works
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,7,10
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed, 8% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – OUR SHENANIGAN – YES horse with 6 and SIM FAV – 3rd up with a bullet work
6 – JENSCO – the other YES horse with TLRSP#+6 – comes in from SA with strong Keen work
1 – ANGEL BELLA – going to be coming late – just missed in last despite being wide in turns
3 – LATE TO THE GAME – only class dropper as Top SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Closers, 0 w2w – PP: None From Rail, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
8 – LAGYNOS – back to back 100 speed figures – TLRSP#+4 and best PAR+ by far
6 – GIOCOSO – winner 2 of 3 on CD grass – ITM 4/4 at distance – winner 4/9 on turf
5 – CHASING THE CROWN – horse for the course 7/4-2-0 – should be better in 2nd up
9 – WEST HOLLYWOOD – Prat and Cox – winner 4/7 on turf
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus
9 – MAXIMUM BOURBON – won debut at CD with ease – 4/5 starts quality – lone miss AW
1 – CONCRETE GLORY – on the lead as a YES horse – undefeated in 2 at CD
2 – BUILT – TLRSP# +3 – YES horse and only 5 ways better but 0/2 at CD
6 – BACK EM UP – that last GP work 4f in 46.3 is ridiculous – super consistent but 1st at CD
Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Closers, 0/7 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Discount
5 – CY FAIR – just missed in her last and has plenty more upside in 2nd up
8 – SLAY THE DAY – won both races on turf – 3rd up
7 – MIDNIGHT MARTINI – fairly strong chance to be on the lead and top C ZONE
3 – FINAL ACCORD – drops from the Breeders Cup – before that – won both starts
Race 12: 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Similar Bonus
7 – MIZZOU – MSW dropping YES horse and best published work between races
6 – PRIME POWER – YES horse and drops from MSW with Irad
3 – ROYAL SAPPHIRE – out on the lead with 1st Lasix and 2nd race Parability
4 – DARK RYE – 3.00 firster vs 2 YESes and a 2nd PARABILYTY above) nice price – why not
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/2,3,4,6
