Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 9-15-2025
Race 1–
5 – Amatteroftime: 3rd last out vs similar; top speed at today’s distance, ties for fastest dirt speed among entries, and paired with high-percentage jockey and trainer.
4 – Arak: Ran 3rd vs similar in last race, drops in class today and paired with high-percentage jockey and trainer.
6 – Pit Boss: Strong record at PARX Racing (62% in money,14% wins), excels at this distance (56% in money) and as a high % jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Rackataptap: Won 33% of his starts at PARX Racing; The rail post is winning at a19% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Saint Marco
3 – We Be There
Race 2–
6 – We Live This Game: Won his last race at Monmouth by 8-1/2 lengths; and paired with high-percentage jockey and trainer.
3 – Gametime Gladiator: Trained by Jammie Ness who drops Gametime Gladiator off claim and switches to a high% jockey.
4 – Prairie Dunes: Placed 3rd last out, owns the fastest dirt speed in the field, and has a trainer winning 23% in second starts after a claim.
Longshot:
1 – Carcharoth: Ran 2nd last time; Rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
Alternate:
5 – Riley’s Rockstar
2 – Whoosh
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/1,2,3,5,6/3,4/3,6 – Cost $40.00
Race 3–
3 – Change Your Name: Finished second last time, holds the top recent speed rating, leads today’s dirt speed, and showed a solid 4F workout on Sep-09.
1 – Kerner: Slow start; eased late in last race but has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back, drops in class today and rail post is winning at 29% clip.
5 – Alphadini: Finished in the money 2 races out of the last 3 starts and has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
2 – Fastidious: Finished 3rd vs similar in his last race; He can go the distance.
Alternate:
6 – Wampanoag Chief
4 – Chilling Time
Race 4–
4 – Zanduhoc: In the money 6 of last 8, with 2 wins; top speed at today’s distance, fastest dirt runner in field, and trained by a high-percentage winner.
3 – Chineseiam: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and switches to a high% trainer and jockey.
2 – Solo in Paris: Won his last race at PARX Racing and has a has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Celestial Dark: Ran 3rd in his last 2 starts; Has won 2 races at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
1 – Unswayed
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6/3,5,6,7/2,7/1,6,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
3 – Rock Me Gently: In the money 9 of last 10, with 2 wins; both trainer and jockey have strong records.
6 – Greyhound Station: Strong record at PARX Racing (75% in money,25% wins), excels at this distance (80% in money) and drops in class today.
7 – Lady Sriracha: Drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Silver City Kitty: Won her last race at PARX Racing and has a has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Whatta World
4 – Neighbelline
Race 6–
7 – No No Joe: Placed in the last 6 races, won 2 including the most recent, with a high-percentage trainer.
2 – Ahsad: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating; has a high-percentage winning trainer.
5 – Dr Bayter: Likes Parx Racing finishing in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 27% of the races; Likes the distance finishing in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 40% of the races.
Longshot:
3 – Fast Bob: Has won 23% of his starts at PARX Racing, shares the fastest dirt speed today, and is trained and ridden by high-percentage winners.
Alternate:
4 – Mac Daddy Too
6 – Mega Charlie
Race 7—
7 – Fluff the Pillow: Finished 3rd against similar competition last race; and is trained and ridden by high-percentage winners.
1 – Takemetothemoon: Finished second by a neck against similar competition last time; draws the rail (19% winning rate) and is trained by a high-percentage winner.
6 – Shouldhavebeengone: Placed 2nd against similar rival’s last race; has early speed and is trained by a top-percentage winner.
Longshot:
3 – Paynter’s Prodigy: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and likes the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Humble Joe
8 – Renegade Serenade
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6,7/3,7/1,5/1,2,4,5,6 – Cost $50.00
Race 8-Female
7 – Brooklyn Rhapsody: Finished in the money in 5 of last 6, with 3 wins; drops in class today. Holds top speed figures at today’s distance and on dirt among all starters.
3 – Misspent: Won 3 of her last 5 starts; now with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Leilauni Sue: Runner-up as the favorite last race, has a trainer who wins 30% when returning a horse after a loss as the favorite, and his early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
6 – Ringer Card: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race has a trainer who wins 20% of the dirt starts a horse he trains competes in.
Alternate:
5 – Calisa
2 – Wine and Roses
Bet: $20.00 Win – $30.00 Place: 7 – $10.00 – Exacta Box: 3,7 – $10.00 Exacta: 7/3,4,6
Race 9–
1 – Augustine Red: Outstanding PARX record (100% in the money, 50% wins), excels at this distance, top trainer/jockey combo, and a recent bullet 4F workout (Sep-09).
5 – Action Hero: Finished in the money in 8 of last 10, with 2 wins and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Devil’s Cay: Drops in class, gets a top jockey and trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Jackson Road: Won last race; and is trained and ridden by a top-percentage winner.
Alternate:
4 – Cisco Kid
2 – Prince of Chill
Race 10–
1 – Checkitup: Placed second in his last three races, holds the rail post that at a 20%-win rate, and boasts today’s highest speed figure and fastest dirt time.
5 – Hey River: Ran 2nd in last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Mendelsfly: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a trainer who wins 17% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
4 – Dos de Oros: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; can handle the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Darvesh
7 – Modern Era
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #7 – Brooklyn Rhapsody
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Almost Fair
5 – AMATTEROFTIME – SIM FAV – Lone Dropper – better EP
4 – ARAK – track dropper with some ES
7 – JIGSAW – a flyer – better EP and ES +5 as top C Zone in a race of middle back types
2 – SAINT MARCO – aggressive LP edge of 2 lengths, top Total Pace and fan faster last out
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,5,7
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Almost Fair
6 – WE LIVE THIS GAME – TLRSP#+6 and Top Total Pace +11 – better EP and Fractions
3 – GAMETIME GLADIATOR – Ness and Sanchez with the SIM FAV
1 – CARCHAROTH – out front in third up and much better EP
5 – RILEY’S ROCKSTAR – last race might be a little better than it looks – strong LP
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6/3,6/1,2,3,4/1,3,5,7
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 49% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – CHANGE YOUR NAME – TLRSP#+5 – 5 ways better – Track Dropper
6 – WAMPANOAG CHIEF – lone E – Pacesetter – top C Zone -Track Dropper – OK Parx Works
5 – ALPHADINI – Best PAR+ and biggest class dropper – but 0/5 at PARX
1 – KERNER – if the 6 isn’t on the lead – should be on the robust rail
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,5,6
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
4 – ZANDUHOC – to the front and catch me if you can – 3rd up
3 – CHINESEIAM – Top C ZONE that should sit behind the speed with Paco
1 – UNSWAYED – the last of the YES horses and makes the 3rd start off the bench
2 – SOLO IN PARIS – strong LP +6 – lone C vs the rest that want to pilot or co pilot
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4/1,3/3,5,7/1,4,6,7
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – ROCK ME GENTLY – Biggest class dropper – SIM FAV – Top Total Pace +8.7
1 – WHATTA WORLD – Sanchez – likely pacesetter and hot rail
5 – SILVER CITY KITTY – the other class dropper and could be better round 2 off the bench
7 – LADY SRIRACHA – Yes horse – last might be better than it looks Better EP & fractions
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Better than Out
3 – FAST BOB – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace of a length – has stakes LP at times
7 – NO NO JOE – highly consistent performer – FAV in 5 of last 6 races
5 – DR BAYTER – last of the 3 YES horses only class dropper of the 3 – 4/10 at the distance
2 – AHSAD – tough call over the 6 – but better post and better 5 ways last out
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,5,6,7
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Almost Fair
7 – FLUFF THE PILLOW – ITM 3/4 at Parx and 5/6 at the distance – lone PC w/ strong C ZONE
4 – HUMBLE JOE – biggest in race edge +8.6 and Top Total Pace
6 – SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE – 1 of 2 YES horses – Z Pattern
1 – TAKEMETOTHEMOON – rail bonus – just missed in his last
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7/4,5,6,7/1,6,4/1,4,5,6
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
7 – BROOKLYN RHAPSODY – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace – Maybe 1 vs all Noes
6 – RINGER CARD – maybe too much ES +9 – vs a field of middle back types
4 – LEILAUNI SUE – left arrow – PARX 3/1-0-2 –
5 – CALISA – won her first race at Parx with ease after coming in from AQ
$3 Exacta Key Box: 6/4,5,7
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bais: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – AUGUSTINE RED – Sanchez and Ness – rerun last PARX race and it’s a wrap
6 – DEVIL’S CAY – Ness and Paco – better EP in last and highly consistent
4 – CISCO KID – TLRSP# +12 – chance to be better in 2nd up
5 – ACTION HERO – OK off the bench with decent works –
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Almost Fair
5 – HEY RIVER – TLRSP# +4 – lone E – pacesetter with solid C Zone – 2nd up
6 – MENDELSFLY – could be at his best in 3rd up – better EP with small Z pattern
1 – CHECKITUP – Z pattern with better fractions last out
4 – DOS DE OROS – Top Total Pace + 10.66
