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Churchill Downs Picks and Analysis – September 17, 2025

Churchill Downs Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt

Free Churchill Downs Picks

Terry’s Picks:

PARX Churchill Downs – 9-17-2025

Race 1-Female

8 – Misty Muppet: Finished 2nd last race; Drops in class today and trained by a high-percentage trainer.

7 – Brooklynn Drew: Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; is trained by a high-percentage winner and switches to a high % jockey.

3 – Musical Prayer: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 3 starts at Churchill Downs, Drops in class today, trained by a high-percentage winner.

Longshot:

4 – Mink Stole: Finished in the money in the last 3 races, winning 1 start and trained by an individual who achieves a 23%-win rate in the 1st race after claiming a horse.

Alternate:

5 – Streaking

6 – Onmywaytosavthday

Race 2

1 – Busk: Won 8 races out of the last 9 starts. Rail post is winning at a18% clip; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

4 – Turn Up the Trees: Placed in 7 of 8 starts; winning 4 races. Trainer and jockey has a high win rate.

8 – Shape Note: He won last race, has the highest last race speed rating and trainer has a high win rate who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse off a win.

Longshot:

3 – Sergeant Gump: Won last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Spycraft

5 – Mine Own Star

$.50 Pick 4: 1 /1,2,4,5,6,9/4,7,8,10/3,4,7,9 – Cost $48.00  

Race 3

1 – Federal Agent: He has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd route race a horse competes in; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.

2 – Stolen Power: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start. Trainer has a high win rate.

4 – Court of Appeal: Switches to a high % jockey and has a trainer who wins 28% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race.

Longshot:

6 – Trapped in Time: He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race; Drops in class today; can improve while trying dirt has high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Tingus Pingus

9 – Off the Deck

Race 4

8 – Saltwater Cowboy: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts. Trainer has a high win rate. Has a bullet 3F workout (Sep-11).

7 – Slip Mahoney: One for one at Churchill Downs; Drops in class today. Highest speed figure at today’s distance.

4 – Master Game: A closer so the additional distance should help; and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

10 – Critical Threat: Finished 3rd in last start; and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.

Alternate:

11 – Sir Saffer

Race 5-Female

4 – Fade to Gold: Finished 2nd in only start; has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from turf to dirt and a high-percentage jockey.

3 – Noroomformischief: Ran 3rd in her only start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.

9 – Listentourmother: Finished 3rd in only start; has a good 4F workout (Sep-06).

Longshot:

7 – Crevalla de Vil: She had finished 4th after trouble during the race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Sacred Prayer

Race 6

4 – Moral: Has not been out of the money in his three-race career, has a high-percentage jockey and Lasix is added.

7 – Curlin’s Gesture: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in last race; trained by a high-percentage trainer. May improve while returning to Dirt.

2 – Remi’s Moon: Finished 3rd in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

5 – Ravens Dream: Won last race; has a top trainer and jockey.

$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,7/1,9,10/9,11/1,2,3,6 – Cost $48.00

Race 7-Female

1 – Grand Luxx: Rail post is winning at a 18% clip; has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse competes in.

9 – Hoops Rivalry: She has a high-winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-2-1).

8 – A P Sweetheart: Expected to improve on dirt; trained by someone with a 22%-win rate switching from turf and holds today’s top dirt speed.

Longshot:

10 – It Ain’t Like That: She has finished 2nd in one race out of two starts at Churchill Downs and has highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

11 – Stella Guitar

12 – Endless Glory

Race 8-Female

9 – De’ Ans Eighty: Never finished out of the 5 starts at Churchill Downs, winning 1 race; has a high % winning trainer and can go the distance.

11 – Sassy and Bold: Won 4 races out of her last 8 starts, finishing 3rd in the last start and likes the distance.

7 – She’s No Angel: Won last race, drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim.

Longshot:

4 – Gloriette: Ran 2nd in his last race, early speed running style helps chances and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters

Alternate:

6 – Promises to Dance

Bet: $10.00 Win: 9 – $10.00 – Exacta Box: 9,11 – $10.00 Exacta: 9/4,6,7,11 – $5.00 – Exacta Box: 9,7,11

Race 9

6 – No Mor Stones: Finished 2nd in last start; Has the highest last race speed rating and has a high-winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Steel Venom: Drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and has a high-winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Fine Vino: First time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters, has a high-winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 5F workout (Sep-5)

Longshot:

3 – Helm Place: He may improve while returning to dirt; Switches to a high % jockey, has a high-winning trainer and has a good 4F workout (Sep-10).

Alternate:

4 – Cinister Cix

11 – Rich Vino

Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #9 – De’ Ans Eighty

Rich’s Picks:

Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst

7 – BROOKLYNN DREW – SIM FAV and best PAR+ – Out front with +6 ES

4 – MINK STOLE – Top Total Pace – ITM 4/6 at the distance

2 – FANCY FASCINATOR – 3rd start off the bench – solid work between starts

8 – MISTY MUPPET – tough call over the 3 – 1st at CD  – work is solid

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst

1 – BUSK – won 7 in a row – 8 wins in 10 at distance, 2/2 at CD

8 – SHAPE NOTE – TLRSP#+8 – 4 solid works between races – winner 4/9 at the distance

4 – TURN UP THE TREES – great chance to be out front vs all others middle back

3 – SERGEANT GUMP – worthwhile longshot – won  last huge – 3rd up

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8/1,4,5,9/7,8,10/2,5,11,12

Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Worst

5 – TINGUS PINGUS – TLRSP# +3 w/ 2nd race parability – decently bet in debut – needs a better start

1 – FEDERAL AGENT – potential bounce back race in 3rd career outing

4 – COURT OF APPEAL – another 2nd race parability with a funky start in debut

9 – OFF THE DECK – first timer vs the rest being noes

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,5,9

Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount

7 – SLIP MAHONEY  -SIM FAV and Top Total Pace +13 – won lone race at CD

10 – CRITICAL THREAT – TLRSP#+ 4, strong LS and has 3 works between races

8 – SALTWATER COWBOY – shot to be the pacesetter as the lone PC

4 – MASTER GAME – 3rd up – last race not as bad as it looks – better EP

$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/4,8,10

Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst

12 – LOVELY SUMMER – Top Rated 1ster vs noes and a pair of 2nd race Parabilities

11 – CORBET’S CRUSH – the top 2nd race parability – a pair of works

5 – SUDDEN SQUALL – well bet in debut and a great work since

2 – SACRED PRAYER – 2nd best 1st timer – catches Irad

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,11,12

Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Small Bonus

2 – REMI’S MOON – pacesetter w/ Top Total pace +6 – Top Par+

7 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – only YES horse – got to have him

4 – MORAL – speed and 1st Lasix – just missed at this level last out

5 – RAVENS DREAM – somebody has to be 4 of 4

$0.50 Pick 4: 2/1,3,6,10,12/3,4,9/1,2,3,4,5,8

Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst

12 – ENDLESS GLORY – top rated 1ster vs all noes

3 – MIGHTY NORA – 2nd rated 1ster

6 – FREAKS GO – 3rd rated – nice works on Aug 29

1 – GRAND LUXX – was the  6/5 favorite in her Toga Debut

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,6,12

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Worst

4 – GLORIETTE – should be out front – better ATB and drops

3 – OUTRAGEOUSLY – should improve in 2nd up – winner 2/4 at CD just 1 in 7 elsewhere

9 – DE’ ANS EIGHTY – ITM  5/5 at CD can fire after rest

8 – OUR LIBERTY BELLE – tough call over a few others – just consistently better numbers

$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/3,8,9

Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount

5 – RYU MO – flyer for sure – 2nd race parability and only pure MSW dropper

3 – HELM PLACE – could pop in 2nd up – with a fast work between races

8 – HARBE – good chance to be on the lead – switch back to dirt helps

2 – STEEL VENOM – much better EP in last – 3rd up and back to dirt

$1 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,3,8

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