Churchill Downs Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
PARX Churchill Downs – 9-17-2025
Race 1-Female
8 – Misty Muppet: Finished 2nd last race; Drops in class today and trained by a high-percentage trainer.
7 – Brooklynn Drew: Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; is trained by a high-percentage winner and switches to a high % jockey.
3 – Musical Prayer: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 3 starts at Churchill Downs, Drops in class today, trained by a high-percentage winner.
Longshot:
4 – Mink Stole: Finished in the money in the last 3 races, winning 1 start and trained by an individual who achieves a 23%-win rate in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
5 – Streaking
6 – Onmywaytosavthday
Race 2–
1 – Busk: Won 8 races out of the last 9 starts. Rail post is winning at a18% clip; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Turn Up the Trees: Placed in 7 of 8 starts; winning 4 races. Trainer and jockey has a high win rate.
8 – Shape Note: He won last race, has the highest last race speed rating and trainer has a high win rate who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse off a win.
Longshot:
3 – Sergeant Gump: Won last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Spycraft
5 – Mine Own Star
$.50 Pick 4: 1 /1,2,4,5,6,9/4,7,8,10/3,4,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3–
1 – Federal Agent: He has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd route race a horse competes in; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
2 – Stolen Power: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start. Trainer has a high win rate.
4 – Court of Appeal: Switches to a high % jockey and has a trainer who wins 28% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race.
Longshot:
6 – Trapped in Time: He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race; Drops in class today; can improve while trying dirt has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Tingus Pingus
9 – Off the Deck
Race 4–
8 – Saltwater Cowboy: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts. Trainer has a high win rate. Has a bullet 3F workout (Sep-11).
7 – Slip Mahoney: One for one at Churchill Downs; Drops in class today. Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – Master Game: A closer so the additional distance should help; and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Critical Threat: Finished 3rd in last start; and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Alternate:
11 – Sir Saffer
Race 5-Female
4 – Fade to Gold: Finished 2nd in only start; has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from turf to dirt and a high-percentage jockey.
3 – Noroomformischief: Ran 3rd in her only start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Listentourmother: Finished 3rd in only start; has a good 4F workout (Sep-06).
Longshot:
7 – Crevalla de Vil: She had finished 4th after trouble during the race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Sacred Prayer
Race 6–
4 – Moral: Has not been out of the money in his three-race career, has a high-percentage jockey and Lasix is added.
7 – Curlin’s Gesture: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in last race; trained by a high-percentage trainer. May improve while returning to Dirt.
2 – Remi’s Moon: Finished 3rd in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Ravens Dream: Won last race; has a top trainer and jockey.
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,7/1,9,10/9,11/1,2,3,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
1 – Grand Luxx: Rail post is winning at a 18% clip; has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse competes in.
9 – Hoops Rivalry: She has a high-winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-2-1).
8 – A P Sweetheart: Expected to improve on dirt; trained by someone with a 22%-win rate switching from turf and holds today’s top dirt speed.
Longshot:
10 – It Ain’t Like That: She has finished 2nd in one race out of two starts at Churchill Downs and has highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
11 – Stella Guitar
12 – Endless Glory
Race 8-Female
9 – De’ Ans Eighty: Never finished out of the 5 starts at Churchill Downs, winning 1 race; has a high % winning trainer and can go the distance.
11 – Sassy and Bold: Won 4 races out of her last 8 starts, finishing 3rd in the last start and likes the distance.
7 – She’s No Angel: Won last race, drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim.
Longshot:
4 – Gloriette: Ran 2nd in his last race, early speed running style helps chances and has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Alternate:
6 – Promises to Dance
Bet: $10.00 Win: 9 – $10.00 – Exacta Box: 9,11 – $10.00 Exacta: 9/4,6,7,11 – $5.00 – Exacta Box: 9,7,11
Race 9–
6 – No Mor Stones: Finished 2nd in last start; Has the highest last race speed rating and has a high-winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Steel Venom: Drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and has a high-winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Fine Vino: First time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters, has a high-winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 5F workout (Sep-5)
Longshot:
3 – Helm Place: He may improve while returning to dirt; Switches to a high % jockey, has a high-winning trainer and has a good 4F workout (Sep-10).
Alternate:
4 – Cinister Cix
11 – Rich Vino
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #9 – De’ Ans Eighty
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst
7 – BROOKLYNN DREW – SIM FAV and best PAR+ – Out front with +6 ES
4 – MINK STOLE – Top Total Pace – ITM 4/6 at the distance
2 – FANCY FASCINATOR – 3rd start off the bench – solid work between starts
8 – MISTY MUPPET – tough call over the 3 – 1st at CD – work is solid
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst
1 – BUSK – won 7 in a row – 8 wins in 10 at distance, 2/2 at CD
8 – SHAPE NOTE – TLRSP#+8 – 4 solid works between races – winner 4/9 at the distance
4 – TURN UP THE TREES – great chance to be out front vs all others middle back
3 – SERGEANT GUMP – worthwhile longshot – won last huge – 3rd up
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,8/1,4,5,9/7,8,10/2,5,11,12
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 23% w2w – PP: 1-3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Worst
5 – TINGUS PINGUS – TLRSP# +3 w/ 2nd race parability – decently bet in debut – needs a better start
1 – FEDERAL AGENT – potential bounce back race in 3rd career outing
4 – COURT OF APPEAL – another 2nd race parability with a funky start in debut
9 – OFF THE DECK – first timer vs the rest being noes
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,5,9
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
7 – SLIP MAHONEY -SIM FAV and Top Total Pace +13 – won lone race at CD
10 – CRITICAL THREAT – TLRSP#+ 4, strong LS and has 3 works between races
8 – SALTWATER COWBOY – shot to be the pacesetter as the lone PC
4 – MASTER GAME – 3rd up – last race not as bad as it looks – better EP
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/4,8,10
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst
12 – LOVELY SUMMER – Top Rated 1ster vs noes and a pair of 2nd race Parabilities
11 – CORBET’S CRUSH – the top 2nd race parability – a pair of works
5 – SUDDEN SQUALL – well bet in debut and a great work since
2 – SACRED PRAYER – 2nd best 1st timer – catches Irad
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,11,12
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – REMI’S MOON – pacesetter w/ Top Total pace +6 – Top Par+
7 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – only YES horse – got to have him
4 – MORAL – speed and 1st Lasix – just missed at this level last out
5 – RAVENS DREAM – somebody has to be 4 of 4
$0.50 Pick 4: 2/1,3,6,10,12/3,4,9/1,2,3,4,5,8
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Worst
12 – ENDLESS GLORY – top rated 1ster vs all noes
3 – MIGHTY NORA – 2nd rated 1ster
6 – FREAKS GO – 3rd rated – nice works on Aug 29
1 – GRAND LUXX – was the 6/5 favorite in her Toga Debut
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,6,12
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Worst
4 – GLORIETTE – should be out front – better ATB and drops
3 – OUTRAGEOUSLY – should improve in 2nd up – winner 2/4 at CD just 1 in 7 elsewhere
9 – DE’ ANS EIGHTY – ITM 5/5 at CD can fire after rest
8 – OUR LIBERTY BELLE – tough call over a few others – just consistently better numbers
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/3,8,9
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 23% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – RYU MO – flyer for sure – 2nd race parability and only pure MSW dropper
3 – HELM PLACE – could pop in 2nd up – with a fast work between races
8 – HARBE – good chance to be on the lead – switch back to dirt helps
2 – STEEL VENOM – much better EP in last – 3rd up and back to dirt
$1 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,3,8
