Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill-4-30-25
Race 1-Female
3 – Story Hour – She has finished in the money in four races out of five starts at Churchill Downs, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Marmalade Skye – She has finished in the money in three races out of the last four starts, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip, she has a trainer who wins 17% of the sprint races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – These Apples – She has won two races out of her last three starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Always Angels – She drops in class today, she may improve while returning to dirt, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Ready for Trouble
Race 2-Female
5 – Baffle – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time starters, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Apr-22.
7 – Sassy C W – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the debut maiden Sp Wt. races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Wakuda – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters, her Breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Stardialed – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 8 winners from 10 starters and 1 stakes winner, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the dirt races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Givemethebeat
8 – Red Beretta
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,7,8,12/3,4,5,7/11/1,7,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
7 – Winning Song – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 19% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Paved in Gold – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating, can improve at the shorter distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Old Trace – He can improve while trying dirt and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Straightaway – He is a first-time starter and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – One Mor Story
Race 4–
11 – Urban Legend – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 3rd race off a layoff and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Clear the Air – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Test Factor – He has won two races out of her last three starts, he finished 4th in his last race after checking at the 7/16 as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-24.
Longshot:
3 – Gilded Ruler – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Let It Ride
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,8,11/1,2,7,9,10/3,5,6,8,9/9 – Cost $50.00
Race 5
7 – Focusyn – He won his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when using 1st time Lasix.
10 – Committee of One – He drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Perfect Prankster – He finished 5th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Another Monarch – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he likes the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Penrod
Race 6
8 – Badgeball – He won his last race at the Fairgrounds, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Tiger’s Legacy – He finished 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Vertrauen – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park, he has a high % winning trainer and is one for one at today’s distance.
Longshot:
6 – Norwich – He won his last race at the Fairgrounds, he has a high % winning trainer and a good 5F workout on Apr-19.
Alternate:
3 – Explosively
7 – Shipman
Race 7-Female
9 – Hope Mission – She won her last race at the Fairgrounds, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Expatriate – She has one win out of three career starts, she can handle the distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Classic Q – She was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs tougher in her last start, he drops in class today, she has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-19.
Longshot:
5 – New Rome – She has won three races out of her last five starts, she loves the distance winning three out of four starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Storm Miami
2 – Yes Indeed
$.50 Pick 4: #7,9/1,2,3,5,8/1,11/1,5,6,7,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 8
5 – Lambeth – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, he has the highest last race speed rating, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Game Warden – He ran 2nd in his last race, he can handle the distance, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Speed Bias – He ran 3rd in his last race, he drops in class today and he can handle the distance.
Longshot:
8 – Timeout – He has won two races out of his last three starts and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
1 – Honor Marie
7 – Baba Voss
Race 9–
11 – Governor Sam – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, he has the highest last race speed rating, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Out On Bail – He has finished in the money in his six career races, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Makeit to Cheyenne – He won his last two races, he can handle the distance and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Coming in Hot – He has won two races out of her last four starts and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
9 – Warheart
Bet: $40.00 Win: 11 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 1/11 -$10.00 Exacta: 11/1,5,6,9
Race 10
1 – Bright Lights Joe – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint, can improve while returning to a sprint and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won three races out of three starts.
7 – Hasten – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the shorter distance will help.
5 – Chado – He has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse to Turf to Dirt and he can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
10 – Cajun Cruiser – He has finished in the money in his last two races only losing by a neck in his last start and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
6 – Silent Breeze
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 9th Race – #11 – Governor Sam
