Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks
Race 1
6 – Express Cruiser – He won his last race at Churchill Downs; he has the highest last race speed rating he has a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the1st race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Speakinofthedevil – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Tim Tal – He has a high % winning trainer and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
4 – Western Command – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – J. P. Race
1 – Bettering
Race 2
4 – Veracruzin – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Red Line Overdrive – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-0-2).
5 – Summer in Aiken – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when he drops a horse off a claim and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Redhill – He drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
2 – Freaky Z
$.50 Pick 4: #1,4/1,2/3,4,5,6,8/3,4,5,6 – Cost $40.00
Race 3
2 – Run Jalen Run – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Capital Connection – He finished in the money in four out of five races at PARX Racing, beaten only 2-lengths vs similar in last start, the rail post is winning at a18% clip and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the sprint races he has a horse in.
5 – Gagliardi – He has a high % winning trainer and a good workout on June 7th.
Longshot:
3 – Lebombo – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden claiming race to a maiden race.
Alternate:
4- Returned
6 – Adrift
Race 4
3 – Soaring Bird – He won his last race at Churchill Downs; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when dropping a horse off a win and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – G T Five Hundred – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Fitzpatrick – He finished 4th in his last race after having trouble during the race, drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
6 – Samurai Prince – He has a high % winning trainer and he can handle the distance.
Alternate:
8 – Robo Man
Race 5-Female
4 – Noble Bernadette – She finished 3rd in her last two races, has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse up one class.
6 – Mor Happy Hours – She drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Tammy’s Cruiser – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Pam Pam – She finished 5th in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Elodine
2 – Cause Ima Rose
Race 6-Female
3 – Malu – She finished in the money in her last five races at Churchill Downs, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Broughty Ferry – She finished 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout (Jun-05).
6 – New Beat – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Fasta Lavista Baby – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Noriskit Nobiscuit
7 – I Had That One Too
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,4,5,6,7/4,5,6,8,9/5/2,3,4 – Cost $45.00
Race 7-Female
8 – Steampunk – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Rose Alabama – She finished 3rd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Wine and Waves – She drops in class today; she has the highest last race speed rating trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden claiming race to a maiden race.
Longshot:
5 – Stagflation – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good workout on June 7th.
Alternate:
9 – Rockaway Reef– She drops in class today; she has a trainer who wins 23% of the 2nd career race a horse runs in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 8
5 – Midnight Rising – He has won two races out of three starts at Oaklawn Park, finishing 5th in his last start, a G3 event, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Salute the Stars – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on May-31.
2 – Gasoline – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in dirt starts and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Super Corinto – He drops in class today after running in a G2 event, his early speed running style helps chances as he can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 5F workout on Jun-01.
Alternate:
6 – Warrior Johny
8 – Giant Game
Bet: $6.00 Win & $10.00 Place: # 5 – $1.00 DD: 2,4,5/2,3,4
Race 9
2 – Macaw – He finished 2nd in his debut race at Churchill Downs, only losing by a head and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Bettera – He finished 2nd in his last race at Churchill Downs, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Trumptastic – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
7 – Pursuit of Power – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Availability
1 – Bernin Hot
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race
5 – Midnight Rising
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
4 – WESTERN COMMAND – resume says 2nd up will be better than first up – just missed at this level
6 – EXPRESS CRUISER – won with ease last out – upped SP# in last 3 races
3 – TIM TAL – most back class, find it and he wins, but 1st up record isn’t encouraging
2 – J. P. RACE – chance to improve in 2nd up – at times pairs solid outings
Race 2: 1 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
1 – RED LINE OVERDRIVE – tends to rebound sharply after regression, today is the bounce back
6 – REDHILL – have to read between the lines, but ran about 1 -1 ½ seconds faster in his last
5 – SUMMER IN AIKEN – tr Michael Pino fires at 37% in claim and drop – 2 maintenance works between races
4 – VERACRUZIN – best CD record 3/1-0-1 – most of the others have struggled at CD
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers. 13% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Almost as good as the rail
5 – GAGLIARDI – if is going to upset the two favorites, it’s this one on second race improvement – 4 workouts since for tr Bill Mott
2 – RUN JALEN RUN – CD is a tricky track according to Mike Smith, CD 3/0-1-2 – all but 1 of his 8 races is a winner
1 – CAPITAL CONNECTION – wide trip in last, move to the rail should fix that
4 – RETURNED – first timer with a bullet and go work – not much else to beat
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
3 – SOARING BIRD – 7 high quality races in a row – drops off a win with a pair of works between
5 – FITZPATRICK – 3rd up – bullet workout between races – better LP in last
6 – SAMURAI PRINCE
4 – G T FIVE HUNDRED
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
4 – NOBLE BERNADETTE – moving up in class – mixed bag in last race – some improvement and some regression – two works since
3 – TAMMY’S CRUISER – drops in class – looking at the May 10 work of 4f in 47.4 – maybe wakes up the ice-cold McCarthy barn 16/0-1-0 at CD
7 – TALAVERA – only PURE MSW dropper – off almost a year – workouts offer up enough hope – 1st Lasix could help too
5 – PAM PAM – top TOTAL PACE +8, will need to improve on class drop
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best by a lot, 8+ Worst
3 – MALU – resume says 2nd up will be better than 1st – first would win this race
6 – NEW BEAT – could be lone E – big class drop – if she gets the lead, lookout
4 – BROUGHTY FERRY – CD 2/0-2-0, missed by just a little in her last. 3rd up – only other 3rd up was the best of the three
7 – I HAD THAT ONE TOO – consistently put up PAR numbers for this level out west, but CD race and CD works suggest she might not like the track
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
8 – STEAMPUNK – pure MSW dropper – 3 yo getting LASIX for the first time – May 14 Keen work says she is ready to rock
9 – ROCKAWAY REEF – 2nd race improvement type – class drop and a maintenance work between starts
6 – WINE AND WAVES – MSW dropper – been consistent in first 3 races, will need to improve
1 – SO FAR SO GOOD – first timer – tr hits at 25% debut MCL, momma makes winners and works or spot on
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best by a lot, 8+ Worst
4 – SALUTE THE STARS – won his lone race at CD – by far his best – was 1st up like today – May 31 work of 4f in 47.4 at CD says he could be a horse for the course
2 – GASOLINE – been hit or miss at CD 5/2-0-0 – but the hits were at this level and one hit 100 on the speed gun – that was a second up like today
1 – CLASSIC CATCH – 3rd up with some of the most upside in the race – 2 works since last including May 22 when he went 4f in 47.1
5 – MIDNIGHT RISING – drops from a G3 – 1st try at CD – works are solid at CD – but might need a career best effort to win here
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 19% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
2 – MACAW – 5/2 betting favorite in debut – up in class with a pair of works – 2nd race improvement will be enough
1 – BERNIN HOT – toss out the last – doesn’t like turf – that’s easy to see in PPs – drops in class, bullet work between and best race was with Luis Saez, rides for the 2nd time todays
7 – PURSUIT OF POWER – tough call over the 3 – but Jose Ortiz chose this one over the 3 – so will I
3 – TRUMPTASTIC – drops in class with top TOTAL PACE +6
