Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Churchill Downs -6-12-25
Race 1-Female
1 – Stellify – She won her last race at Churchill Downs, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Wedding Mood – She is a closer who won her last race at Churchill Downs, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Tarneema – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
6 – Quietly – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Indy’s Halo
4 – Heart Spin
Race 2
6 – She’s On a Roll – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, her Sire wins 100% of the races with 1st time starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races with horses he trains in debut MdnSpWt and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Curtain Call – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winner from 3 starter, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Southeastern – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, his Sire wins 100% of the races with 1st time starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Clocker Special – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 3 starter, his Sire wins 19% of the races with 1st time starters, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the dirt starts with horses he trains.
Alternate:
3 – Sense of Freedom
8 – Hyperlink
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5,6,8/4,5/3,8/3,4,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
5 – Stage Presence – She won her only race at Churchill Downs, earning the highest last race speed rating, she has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on (Jun-05).
4 – Kentucky Smokeshow – She has a win out of three starts at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Elegant – She drops in class today, the rail post is winning at a 21% clip and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Day Dawning – She has finished in the money in his last three starts, winning one race, blinkers are added today and she has a good 4F workout on (Jun-01).
Alternate:
7 – Army Girl
Race 4
8 – Penrod – He won his last race at Churchill Downs at today’s distance, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Vitement – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and blinkers are added today.
6 – Tiverton – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, and he can handle today’s distance.
Longshot:
10 – Western Command – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse, he switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-04).
Alternate:
9 – More Than Five
4 – Catamount
Race 5
9 – Quokka – He has not raced for more than 4 months but has several good workouts in a row including a bullet workout in his last one, he has won 30% of his races on the turf and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – House United – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Gamblin George – He won his last race on the turf at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Musical Maestro – He was beaten by only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in his last start and he has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Pineland
11 – Double Neat
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,9,10/3/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,5,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
3 – Suited and Booted – He won his last race at Churchill Downs but was placed 2nd for interference, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Gardiner – He has finished in the money in four of his six career starts, wining two of the races, he can go the distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Trust Issues – He won his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-02).
Longshot:
9 – Morunning – He finished 3rd in his first race back after being off 4-months, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the dirt starts a horse he trains run in, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a bullet 4F workout on (Jun-05).
Alternate:
7 – Furious Anger
2 – Dazzlemesilver
Bet: $20.00 Win & $30.00 Place: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 1/3 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,8,9
Race 7
1 – Ignite the Light – He has finished in the money in his last five starts, wining two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Deer District – He finished 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Cat On Time – He is a head away from winning the last three races in a row, he has the highest last race speed rating, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the Allowance races he has a horse running in and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
4 – Coach Jimi D – He has finished in the money in his last four starts, wining two of the races and he has a high % winning jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout on (Jun-05).
Alternate:
8 – Tour Player
5 – Friar Laurence
Race 8
8 – Studeny – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance (tie), his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-07).
3 – Lambo – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, his early speed running style helps his chances so the shorter distance may help and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Mister Banderas – He ran 2nd in his last two races, the rail post is winning at a 21% clip and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-07).
Longshot:
2 – Good Mojo – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winner from 4 starter, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout on (Jun-06).
Alternate:
10 – Fly J’s Funtastic
5 – Munson
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race – #3 – Suited and Booted
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 3/8 Miles Turf: Bias: Closers, 13% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Better, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair
1 – STELLIFY – Top TOTAL PACE of a length – huge LS pop in last to borderline stakes level
2 – WEDDING MOOD – winner of 2 since coming from France – best turf breeding
6 – QUIETLY – 3rd up should look like last – better middle out
5 – TARNEEMA – SIM FAV class dropper – just not sure cutting back is the answer
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bais: 4 Races, Early Speed, 1 w2w – rest shotgun – PP: All from 4-7
6 – SHE’S ON A ROLL – Wesley Ward – 2.91 and a back bullet
8 – HYPERLINK – 2.99 with some strong keeneland works too
5 – CURTAIN CALL – 1ster with a solid last work
4 – OBLITERATION – tough call over the 1 – but better works IMO
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bais: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Inside Out
5 – STAGE PRESENCE – TLRSP# +8 – better ATB and fractions
1 – ELEGANT – on the lead – on the rail – YES horse
4 – KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW – Top PAR + runner – strong 4f in 46.3 CD work
3 – CE LA VI CHARLI – speed and fade in 1st up – more stamina in round 2 off the bench
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bais: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – VITEMENT – potential pacesetter and the inside post should help
8 – PENROD – Top Total Pace horse – all or nothing 11/2-0-0
10 – WESTERN COMMAND – could be better in 2nd up – spotty resume though on that
4 – CATAMOUNT – consistent and maybe most untapped potential in 5th start
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/12 w2w – PP: Outside In
5 – COVERT LAW – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE – should close – 2nd up YES horse
10 – HOUSE UNITED – big win in the mud in last – Better ATB and faster
8 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – left arrow horse – not a lot of speed in here – outside post helps
1 – ASKARI – wanted to rank higher – but no post wins in 12 at the distance/surface
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Positive, 8+ Hit Hard
3 – SUITED AND BOOTED – TLRSP# +3 – biggest in race edge +8 LS and 1 length Top TOTAL PACE
1 – GARDINER – rail win rate is too big to ignore –SIM FAV – CD 4/2-2-0
8 – TRUST ISSUES – should try for the front – blazing work between races – best published
4 – SHOW MASTER – tough call over the 7 – but more upside in 4th race and a pair of excellent works with a better draw
Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 4 Races, Stalkers, 0 w2w – PP: 1 From Rail the rest 4-7
3 – CAT ON TIME – SIM FAV – top TOTAL pace – 1 of 2 YES horses with the 1
1 – IGNITE THE LIGHT – should be forward the other YES horse
2 – DEER DISTRICT – faster by about a second in his last – kind of hangs at the end
8 – TOUR PLAYER – looking for more in the 2nd up – last was career best off a long layoff – regression risk is real
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bais: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – MO WORK – 2nd race improvement puts him above par
2 – GOOD MOJO – firster with the better PP
4 – BIG LUCKY – top rated 1ster
8 – STUDENY – SIM FAV of the experienced horses and Top TOTAL PACE
