Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Churchill Downs -6-18-25
Race 1-Female
1 – Spotaway – She has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip, and her early speed running style helps so the shorter distance may be a plus.
5 – Sweet Note – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie), she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and blinkers are added today.
6 – Unhidden Gem – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Brooklynn Drew – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races the 1st time a horse he trains competes in a claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Sweet Star
Race 2-Female
7 – Topic Thunder – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Givemethebeat – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Estrella Silver – She drops in class today and she has a trainer who wins 60% of the maiden to maiden-claiming races he takes a horse to.
Longshot:
4 – Dragon Navy – She drops in class today, trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden-to-maiden claiming, she has a high % winning jockey and a good 3F workout on (Jun-12).
Alternate:
1 – Jaboss
$.50 Pick 4: 4,5,6,7/2,3,6,7/3,10/1,4,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Busk – He won his last four races in a row at four different tracks, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Cowan – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Turn Up the Trees – He has won three races out of the last four starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Shape Note – He has finished in the money in his last six starts, winning four of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Born Flawless
Race 4-Female
10 – Cinnamon Sugar – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Super Pachi – She ran 2nd in her last race and she can handle the distance.
9 – Light My Flame – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Nonstop Vino – She drops in class today and she has a bullet 3F workout on (Jun-12).
Alternate:
7 – Law and Milloy
Race 5-Female
10 – Without a Pout – She ran 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Scarletta Carpetta – She finished 3rd vs similar in only start and she has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Two Turntables – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey, Lasix is added and she has a good 5F workout on (Jun-10).
Longshot:
9 – Hi’iaka – She finished 3rd in her last race and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Plot
7 – Tap the Champagne
Race 6
2 – Will Be – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the claiming races he has a horse running in, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a good 4F workout on (Jun-13).
3 – High Probability – He has finished in the money in his last three starts, winning the last of the race and he has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Three Echoes – He has a high % winning trainer, his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and he has a good 5F workout on Jun-11.
Longshot:
8 – Devilish Desire – He finished 3rd in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Air of Defiance
7 – Corman
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6,8/4/1,2,3,4,5/3,7,5,9,12 – Cost $50.00
Race 7-Female
4 – De’ Ans Eighty – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 75% of the races and winning 38% of the starts.
7 – Little Blaze – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Ghostly Night – She has finished in the money in his last seven starts, winning one of races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Sombra Dorada – She has finished in the money in six races out of her last eight starts, winning three of the starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Punchy Girl
1 – Abitibi
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: 4 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/2,5,7 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 4/2,5,7
Race 8-Female
4 – She’s Lookin Lucky – She ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Lucky Speech – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Pharoah’s Wine – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Sabalenka – She has a win at Churchill Downs, drops in class today, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Watch This Birdie
6 – Hamwood Flier
Race 9
7 – Helm Place – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
12 – Harbe – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a horse back after being 46-90 days away and he has a good 4F workout on Jun-11.
3 – Tapakena – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races with horses he has running in Maiden Claiming races, he can improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Optimistic Income – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winners from 1 starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Keeping the Faith
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 7th Race – #4 – De’ Ans Eighty
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – BROOKLYNN DREW – has exceptional ES – last sucked – lowest level ever
5 – SWEET NOTE – better early in last and more stamina in 2nd up
7 – MUSICAL PRAYER – decent works between races – ITM 3/0-2-1 at CD
1 – SPOTAWAY – rail, speed – needs more late race stamina
Race 2: 5 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 5/9 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus
1 – JABOSS – all noes in a MC race – best works of the 2 firsters
7 – TOPIC THUNDER – the other firster – slightly better score – OK works
6 – GIVEMETHEBEAT – TLRSP# +14 for experienced horses – MSW dropper
4 – DRAGON NAVY – fast 3f work and plenty of upside in 2nd career start
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – BUSK – TLRSP#+ 4 and Top TOTAL PACE +1 length and by far top PAR+ distance 7/5-2-0
3 – COWAN – should be better in round 2 off the bench – CD 4/2-2-0
7 – SHAPE NOTE – very consistent – won only CD in last and will come from off the pace
2 – TURN UP THE TREES – improved EP and fractions and drops
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2/7 w2w – PP: All from 4-7
9 – LIGHT MY FLAME – Top First Timer vs noes – decent works
2 – NAME DROPPER – the other first timer versus all red
10 – CINNAMON SUGAR – got better in both races post debut
11 – CAROOM’S CROUPIER – MSW dropper and should be forward
Race 5: 1 1 /16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/11 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Best, 8+ Bad
6 – PLOT – highly rated 2.97 firster with some solid works
1 – SCARLETTA CARPETTA – 2nd race improvement – better start and probably wins debut
10 – WITHOUT A POUT – TLRSP# +6 for experienced horses
9 – HI’IAKA – Only YES horse – and should be better in 3rd up
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – WILL BE – ES and that last CD work – 4f in 46.2 – that’s way too fast to ignore
8 – DEVILISH DESIRE – very consistent – pair of maintenance works between starts
3 – HIGH PROBABILITY – TRLSP#+6 – SIM FAV and most LS +6
6 – AIR OF DEFIANCE – tough call over the 5 – more upside
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – SOMBRA DORADA – All or Nada at CD 5/3-0-0 – better EP and Fractions – pacesetter
4 – DE’ ANS EIGHTY – bounce back race coming in 3rd up – maintenance work
7 – LITTLE BLAZE – better fractions despite going a little longer
1 – ABITIBI – 3SP# increases and maybe sitting on the beginning of a peak cycle
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/16 w2w – PP: Outside In4 – SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY – drops from a G3 after a layoff since November
3 – PHAROAH’S WINE – 3SP# increases with solid late pace
6 – HAMWOOD FLIER – could run around the track and not get caught
1 – LUCKY SPEECH – Top LP horse, post stinks, SIM FAV but a no horse
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Worst
12 – HARBE – hate the post – love the ES and the MSW drop
9 – OPTIMISTIC INCOME – 2.87 first timer with some strong back works
7 – HELM PLACE – TLRSP#+ 9 and a lot of room to move higher
3 – TAPAKENA – the only other YES horse with the 12
