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Churchill Downs Picks Live Stream – June 19, 2024 – Horse Racing Today

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers

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Churchill Downs

Racing Racing Picks

Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks

Race 1

6 – American Raider – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Sixwillberich – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Quebrancho – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races in the 2nd after race after claiming a horse.

Longshot:

4 – Coal Boss – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Master of the Nite

7 – Sky Key

Race 2-Female

3 – Silver Rose – She finished in the money in all four career races, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – La La Rose – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Marmalade Skye – She finished in the money in six out of the last seven races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot:

4 – Mustang Lady – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternate:

1 – Sister Kisses

2 – Sing a Little Song

$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,5,6/3,4,10,13/1,6/4,8,11 – Cost $48.00

Race 3

10 – Akinmusire – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he is a closer so the extra ½ furlong may be a plus and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

4 – Purse Thief – He finished 3rd vs similar in only start at Churchill Downs, he has a trainer who wins 17% of the sprint races he has a horse in.

13- Brereton’s Baytown – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today
and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

Longshot:

3 – Concrete Cruiser – He finished 5th after steading hard and has a high % winning jockey.

Alternate:

7 – No Mor Stones

 12 – Sweet Fantasy

Race 4-Female

6 – Patty Van Twinkle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – End of Innocence – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and she has a trainer who wins 20% of the sprint races he has a horse running in.

3 – Bold Appeal – She switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve at the shorter distance.

Longshot:

8 – Sweet Lilibet – She finished 3rd (on AW) in her last race and she has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race.

Alternate:

2 – Despo’s Dream

5 – Galadini

Race 5

1 – Phantom Ride – He has won three out of the last five starts, finishing 2nd only beaten a nose in his last start, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a bullet 4F workout on Jun-09.

6 – Inexorable – He finished in the money in eight out of the last ten races, winning three of the starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

8 – Perfect Flight – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races he has an entry in, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).

Longshot:

7 – Master Game – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.

Alternate:

5 – O P Firecracker

2 – Background

Race 6-Female

8 – Virasana – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

4 – R Queen Candy – She finished 4th in her last race after being bumped at the start and getting a slow break, she has a high % winning jockey and a trainer and who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in.

11 – Lite It Up Louie – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

9 – Sherbet Fountain – She finished in the money in the last two races, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.

$.50 Pick 4: #8/1,2/1,2,3,10/1,4,7,10 – Cost $16.00

Race 7

7 – Pure Force – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs she has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Jun-10.

1 – Discreet Mischief – He finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and, he has a high % winning jockey.

2 – Risk It – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-0).

Longshot:

6 – Mission Beach – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

Alternate:

5 – Epic Battle

3 – Magic Grant

Bet: $14.00 Win: #7 – $10.00 Exacta: 7/1

Race 8

3 – Deer District – He finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races, winning two of the starts, finishing 3rd in his last race and he good 5F workout on Jun-07.

1 – Risk Manager – He likes the turf, finishing in the money in 45% of the races and winning 32% of the races and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money 50% of the races, winning 38% of the races.

2 – Gray’s Fable – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

10 – Cathkin Peak – He comes in from California and drops in class today, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a bullet 5F workout on Jun-11.

Alternate:

7 – Reckoning Force

Race 9-Female

10 – Up On the Edge – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

7 – Computadora – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.

1 – Georgia On E’smind – She finished 4th in her last race after experiencing trouble as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and drops in class today.

Longshot:

4 – Chiquita Reina – She finished 2nd in her last two races.

Alternate:

2 – Naughty Miss

Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race

7 – Pure Force

Rich’s Picks:

Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad

6 – AMERICAN RAIDER – TLRSP# +4, some in race issues, small cut in distance helps

3 – SIXWILLBERICH – 2nd up should be a few points better than 1st and competes for the lead

1 – QUEBRANCHO – doesn’t look like it in the PPs, but should be forward and drops in class

2 – RIGHT ON TARGET – probably the most upside in the race making 2nd start

Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Best by a lot

3 – SILVER ROSE – rerun of her last race – 2nd up could have some regression

4 – MUSTANG LADY – will be closing – missed in lone CD race by just 3/4 of a length

5 – LA LA ROSE – plenty of headroom in just third career start – decent maintenance work between races

6 – MARMALADE SKYE – consistent performer that should be forward

Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount

13 – BRERETON’S BAYTOWN – 2nd race improvement makes him the winner

7 – NO MOR STONES – 3/3 first timer with good works, momma makes winners, tr Doug O’Neil 13% in debuts

10 – AKINMUSIRE – drops from a decent run in 250K NGSTK

3 – CONCRETE CRUISER – tough race in debut – a pair of maintenance works between, better today

Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount

1 – END OF INNOCENCE – if the lone CD fast trip is the benchmark – winner

3 – BOLD APPEAL – Pure MSW dropper – very likely pacesetter

6 – PATTY VAN TWINKLE – probable FAVORITE – was off more than a year, came back with PEAK# by a long ways – regression candidate

2 – DESPO’S DREAM – the other PURE MSW dropper with a pair of bullet works since her last race

Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad

8 – PERFECT FLIGHT – proper distance 5/3-0-1, just 1 win in 17 at any other -bad post

6 – INEXORABLE – class dropper – trio of decent works, 5 pound break, closer, CD 6/2-1-1

1 – PHANTOM RIDE – claim and rise – tried CD for the first time last out, best SP# – horse for the course? Bullet works at Hawthorne since

2 – BACKGROUND – going to be on the pace, 1 length early edge, strong C-Zone

Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Best by a lot

9 – SHERBET FOUNTAIN – some in race issues last out, resume says 2nd up could be like the last or major improvement, cut back to 6f from 7f helps

8 – VIRASANA – on paper, how does she lose? Never available for claim in first 4 races, big drop, very suspicious – something wrong with the horse?

11 – LITE IT UP LOUIE – TLRSP# +7 in MCL win and room to be better in second off the bench with solid maintenance work since

3 – ALMOND FUDGE – has a blowout CD win in the PPs – if she finds that form, pops at a big price in 3rd up

Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 10% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ A Touch Better than the Rail

7 – PURE FORCE – 2nd race improvement makes him a run away winner, although…

1 – DISCREET MISCHIEF – interesting that Geroux rides here for Brad Cox instead of the 7 – a mistake?

2 – RISK IT – maybe the only with a chance at upsetting either of the Cox horses

6 – MISSION BEACH – ran competitively in some big races – maybe 1st Lasix and Gelded brings him back to form today?

Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers/Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Not Good, 8+ Best

3 – DEER DISTRICT – top TOTAL PACE+7, first up record is concerning – Turf 5/1-2-2

1 – RISK MANAGER – last win was a fresh start off the bench at CD – just like today

2 – GRAY’S FABLE – 3rd after a layoff and last 3rd in 3 race cycle was leaps better than the 1st two

10 – CATHKIN PEAK – west coast horse looking for a new home w/ GG closing – drops from a G3 and has the class

Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 10% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ A Touch Better than the Rail

6 – QUEEN ANNA T – most upside horse in the race making 2nd start – down from Keen MSW 70k

7 – COMPUTADORA – down in class, cuts back in distance of some solid fractions in last

10 – UP ON THE EDGE – MSW dropper, 3rd up, last race was horrible, but distance offers hope 2/0-2-0

2 – NAUGHTY MISS – does have a CD run on the resume that is good enough to win here – solid work between races

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