Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Churchill Downs -6-25-25
Race 1-Female
1 – Just an Opinion – She has finished in the money in four of her last five starts, winning two of the starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Copper Em – She drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer and she switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Carolina Candy – She has finished in the money in three his last four starts, winning one of the starts, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Amy Z – She won her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Fun to Run
6 – Cervaro Della Sala
Race 2
8 – Activity – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last start, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout on (Jun-12).
5 – Cocktailsnkringle – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and blinkers are added today.
6 – Guardian – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when taking blinkers off a horse and can improve at the longer distance.
Longshot:
1 – Kensington Cove – He finished 3rd in his last race, and he increased his Par Speed # in the last four races.
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,8/2,5/1,3,11/1,4,7,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
2 – Tiger Moon – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Laughing Boy – He finished 3rd in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – American Law – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning jockey and Blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
7 – Refuah – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Winston Wolf
Race 4-Female
11 – Where Luck Lives – She first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% in dirt starts.
1 – Tiz in Sight – She first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% of the races with 1st time starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Ames – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 9 starters and 1 stakes winner, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jun-19.
Longshot:
4 – Wakuda – She has run 2nd in one start at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Nightmare Fuel
Race 5
10 – Double Neat – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey and blinkers are added today.
1 – Pancake House – He has won two races in his last five races, and he switches to a high% trainer and jockey.
4 – King Curlin – He has a win at Churchill Downs in four starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Earned Not Given – He has finished in the money in three races out of six career starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 6 – Female
4 – Amelia’s Echo – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in the 1st start after claiming a horse.
6 – Pour a Little More – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Volatile Market – She switches to a high % winning jockey, she can improve while returning to dirt, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races the 1st time use of Lasix and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Timbo’s Mischief – She has a high % winning trainer and she drops in class today.
Alternate:
1 – Adulare
$.50 Pick 4: 4,6,8,9/1,7,8,9/5,7/1,4,15 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
8 – Runwithheart – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, he can handle the distance, he has a high % winning trainer and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
9 – Copperlite – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Cashmeup – He has finished in the money in his last eight starts, winning three of the starts, and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in the1st race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
1 – Metatron’s Muse – He has won two races out of his last three starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Proven Hope
10 – Cybertown
Race 8
7 – Furious Anger – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 78% of the races, winning 44% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
5 – Holster – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, he can handle the distance, he has a high % winning trainer
6 – Northern Chill – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, he has the highest last race speed rating, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 4F workout on (Jun-14).
Longshot:
9 – Risk It – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – B Sudd
Bet: $15.00 Win & $25.00 Place: 7 – $10.00 Exacta: 7/5,6,9 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 7/5,6,9
Race 9– Female
15 – Lucy McGee – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and she has the best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Tempting Eve – She ran 2nd in her last race and she can handle the distance.
4 – Murphy Girl – She was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Dodecahedron – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Didn’t It Rain
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 8th Race – #7 – Furious Anger
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – JUST AN OPINION – gets the hot rail – consistent but been regressing
3 – AMY Z – same fractions but went a little longer
4 – CAROLINA CANDY – should be out front as the SIM FAV – TOP PAR+
5 – COPPER EM – has plenty of back class relative to this level
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
6 – GUARDIAN – speed and fade in 1st up – more stamina today
10 – BIG SALT LICK – SIM FAV and only YES in the field
8 – ACTIVITY – Better ATB in last – rerun that race and he has a strong chance
5 – COCKTAILSNKRINGLE – might improve in 2nd start off the sidelines and class drop
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Struggles
5 – LAUGHING BOY – best chance to get to the lead as Lone E – 3rd up
2 – TIGER MOON – SIM FAV – class drop – winner 6/16 at the distance
6 – UNDERHILL’S TAB – highly consistent performer – resume says maybe better in round 2
7 – REFUAH – better EP – 3 solid works since
Race 4: 5 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 5/10 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Bonus
Just ranked 1ster in order by score, works and Post Position
1 – TIZ IN SIGHT
8 – MISS COMPLICATED
12 – STARBRITE STARLITE
3 – AMES
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 1/17 w2w – PP: Outside in, 8+ Only Positive
4 – KING CURLIN – SIM FAV with a 1 ½ Length LS edge where closers have the edge
2 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – some excuses in his last – rerun his 1st grass go can get it done
11 – KIGALI – TLRSP#+5, should be forward with a solid EP edge
10 – DOUBLE NEAT – just missed at this level last out and should be at least as good in 2nd up as Top TOTAL PACE
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out – Strong Rail
1 – ADULARE – 3/3 first timer on the strong rail vs 1 maybe the rest no – excellent CD works
4 – AMELIA’S ECHO – 3SP# increases in a row – any improvement from last works
11 – MY KENTUCKY LILY – second best 1st timer – decent works
8 – TIMBO’S MISCHIEF -2nd race improvement puts her on the threshold
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP Inside 3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Struggles
9 – COPPERLITE – heavy SIM FAV with top PAR+ – biggest in race edge +7 LP
8 – RUNWITHHEART – winner 2 in a row and 3 of 4 – should be out front – Jose off the…
7 – CASHMEUP – Top TOTAL PACE – blowout win in last – ITM 7/10 at CD
4 – PROVEN HOPE – tough call over the 1, but probably beats the 1 last out w/o checking
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out – Strong Rail
6 – NORTHERN CHILL – TLRSP# +4 – pacesetter and Top TOTAL PACE
5 – HOLSTER – won last two at CD – either race would do
7 – FURIOUS ANGER – ITM 7/9 at CD – resume not so strong on 3rd up or would be higher
3 – RIVER RIDGE – Only YES horse – has to be in picks
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Closers, 4/17 w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Bonus
15 – LUCY MCGEE – SIM FAV – YES horse in first third start in a row – Boom or Bust
4 – MURPHY GIRL – another of the 3 YES horses – Top TOTAL PACE – consistent as can be
9 – TICKIN TIME BLONDE – 3rd and last of the YES horses – closer in 3rd up – best of the only other 3 race cycle
11 – PARISI – 1st timer and the rest are maybes or no – May 1 4f work of 46.3 on a wet track says watchout
