Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill -5-01-25
Race 1-Female
5 – Marmo – She has finished in the money in one race out of two starts at Churchill Downs, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Tempting Lady – She finished 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Big Leap – She comes in from Santa Anitia and drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when shipping a horse in to run and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Can I Get Awitness – She has the highest last race speed rating, she can improve while returning to dirt and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Sperry Chalet
Race 2–
7 – Mercilesanihilator– He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the debut maiden SpWt races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Moonlight Beauty – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 21% with 1st time starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Turin – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 2 stakes winners and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 3F workout on Apr-24.
Longshot:
1 – Blinging It Back – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% with 1st time starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance, his Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Distorted Song
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,7,8,10/1/5,6,7,9/2,5,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
1 – Two Eagles River – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Scat Free – He drops in class today, he can improve at the shorter distance, he has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-19.
3 – Tagliatelle – He has finished in the money in five races out of the last seven starts, winning two races and he has a trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Longshot:
5 – Regal Rey – He has won two races out of the last four starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Refuah
Race 4-Female
5 – Rue Lala – She has finished in the money in eight races out of her last ten starts winning the last race and she can handle the distance.
9 – Cart Girl Sam – She has finished in the money in her four career races, winning two starts, she has not raced for more than 9 months but she has several good workouts in a row and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a horse back after a 90+ days away and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Top Gun Girl – She ran 2nd (on Dirt) in her last race, she can improve at the shorter distance, she has a trainer who wins 26% of the sprint races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Out too Late – She has finished in the money in five races out of her last six starts winning two of races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Niki Nine Doors
11 – Numero Seis
Race 5
2 – Bolt At Midnight – He has won two races out of his last three starts, he drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in dirt starts with the horses he trains and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Gamblers Tail – He won his last race at Keenland, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Curlin’s Gesture – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Shortstop – He won his last race at Keenland, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Tango Mike Mike
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,7,8/5,7/1,5,6,11,12/3,4 – Cost $50.00
Race 6
7 – Double Talker – He won his debut race at Keenland, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the Non-Graded Stakes races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Pinky Finger – He won his debut race at Keenland, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Monster – He finished 4th in his debut race but was bumped and crowded, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
3 – Happyhappyboy – He ran 2nd in his debut race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Maximus Prime
Race 7
1 – Rotterdam – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a 4F workout on Apr-24.
5 – Masayoshi – He won his last race at Turfway Park, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey, his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 3 Turf winners.
11 – Presider– He finished in the money in four out of his last five starts, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Oh Really – His breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner, he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Domingo
2 – Mega Magic
Race 8
4 – Classic Legacy – He has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-19.
3 – Ludwig – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 5F workout on Apr-25.
1 – Polster – He won his last race and the rail post is winning at a18% clip.
Longshot:
8 – Hailstorm – He has a win at Churchill Downs and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Bebedouro
2 – Vitement
Race 9–
7 – Nash – He won his last race at Turfway Park, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-19.
2 – World Record – He has finished in the money in his six races out of seven career starts, winning three of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Track Phantom – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Petcoff – He has won three races out of his last five starts and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Caramel Chip
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,6,7/3,6,8,9,10/3,4/7,10 – Cost $50.00
Race 10
9 – Brilliant Berti – He has won five races out of her last seven starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Tut’s Revenge – He ran 2nd in his last race, can improve at the shorter distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning and jockey.
6 – Major Dude – He was beaten only 1-1/4 lengths in his last start, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Lagynos – He has won two races out of his last three starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the Non-Graded Stakes races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Georgie W
Race 11
3 – Speed Boat Beach – He comes in from Santa Anitia after winning the last start and drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Happy Is a Choice – He has won five races out of the last nine starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Fort Bragg – He is another horse that comes in from Santa Anitia trained by Bob Baffert to try Churchill Downs, he has a high % winning jockey and he has two bullet workouts in a row.
Longshot:
8 – Champlin – He has finished in the money in his three starts at Churchill Downs, winning two of the races and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-22.
Alternate:
10 – Valentine Candy
2 – Miles Ahead
Bet: $40.00 Win: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 3/4 -$10.00 Exacta: 3/4,5,8,10
Race 12-Female
10 – Fleetingly – She ran 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-2-4).
7 – Stellify – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – My Gal – She finished 3rd in two races out of three career races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Strive for Honor – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout (Apr-19).
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 11th Race – #3 – Speed Boat Beach
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1:
5 – MARMO – missed by a neck at this level two ago
8 – BIG LEAP – SIM FAV – better fractions last out
1 – CAN I GET AWITNESS – TLRSP# +4 – getting better by the race
2 – STEPPIN TOTHE BEAT – lone pure MSW dropper
Race 2:
7 – MERCILESANIHILATOR – top rated with bullet and go
10 – MOONLIGHT BEAUTY – 2nd rated 1ster
5 – TURIN – 3rd rated 1ster
6 – DISTORTED SONG – pair of bullets and goes
Race 3:
1 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – TLRSP# +3 – ITM 6/8 at CD
3 – TAGLIATELLE – SIM FAV and along with the 1 has a PAR Run – 3rd up and most consistent
5 – REGAL REY – another 3rd up runner – same fractions despite going longer
6 – SCAT FREE – pacesetter and drops from 100K NGSTK
Race 4:
6 – TOP GUN GIRL – top RATED C-ZONE in a wide open race – OK first up
5 – RUE LALA – better ATB and drops from a 100K NGSTK
12 – NIKI NINE DOORS – coming off the sidelines – decent works – 1st up solid – CD not so much
9 – CART GIRL SAM – maybe untapped potential in 5th race
Race 5:
7 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – just missed at this level with a little better EP
5 – GAMBLERS TAIL – biggest in race advantage – 1 ½ lengths edge – 3rd up
2 – BOLT AT MIDNIGHT – will press forward with a little better EP
8 – SHORTSTOP – strong chance to be pacesetter – better in 2nd up
Race 6:
5 – PINKY FINGER – 2nd career upside – on the lead
2 – MAXIMUS PRIME – big LP edge of 3 lengths – another with 2nd race improvement
7 – DOUBLE TALKER – smoked around the track in his debut – good works since
6 – MONSTER – tough start in debut – better trip today
Race 7:
5 – MASAYOSHI – maybe most upside in race in just 3rd start
1 – ROTTERDAM – missed by a neck in last – very consistent
11 – PRESIDER – just needs to run back to his Feb 28 race at Santa Anita – Rispoli riding again helps
2 – MEGA MAGIC – taking a price in 3rd career start – boom or bust after stalling in 2nd career start
Race 8:
4 – CLASSIC LEGACY – better pace in opening ½ mile 5 works since
8 – HAILSTORM – faster fractions in last – a few maintenance works since
2 – VITEMENT – SIM FAV and a big overlay – better fractions and drops
3 – LUDWIG – bullet work – Mike Smith – how they train at CD is how they run – Irad
Race 9:
2 – WORLD RECORD – aggressive ES edge of 2 lengths – top CZONE
7 – NASH – crushed in his last – resume says better in 2nd up
6 – CARAMEL CHIP – drops from a G3 – CD 2/1-0-1
5 – NAUTICAL STAR – with the 2 – the other with a Par RACE
Race 10:
4 – MONEY SUPPLY – 3 SP# increases – TLRSP# +4 – SIM FAV – PAR RUNNER
9 – BRILLIANT BERTI – undefeated in 3 at CD -was slated to run on KD day too –
6 – MAJOR DUDE – consistent performer with excuses in his last
10 – LAGYNOS – the only other PAR RUNNER with the 4 – better in round 2 off the bench
Race 11:
3 – SPEED BOAT BEACH – SIM FAV – should be forward – been off a long time – best if he is ready for trainer Bob Baffert’s Churchill return
5 – FORT BRAGG – if how you train is how you run – none is trainer better – another Baffertee
4 – HAPPY IS A CHOICE – solid CD work – likes the track 3/2-0-0 – distance 11/5-1-2
8 – CHAMPLIN – any of his three races at CD are likely a winner and pacesetter
Race 12:
7 – STELLIFY – TLRSP# +3 – Top TOTAL PACE horse – better EP and fractions
10 – FLEETINGLY – SIM FAV – strong Turf Breeding
9 – STRIVE FOR HONOR – 2nd race improvement and top LP horse
4 – ROYAL SUITE – another 2nd race improvement type with a shot
