Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 11-6-2024
Race 1
2 – Shogun Be Fast – He ran 2nd in his last start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Ethereal Road – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he can improve with blinkers added today.
7 – Not Normal – He drops in class today; he has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Bayou Magic – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a bullet 4F workout on Oct-08.
Alternate:
6 – My Noble Knight
1 – I’m Your Man
Race 2
8 – Trust Daddy – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – B Sudd – He ran 3rd in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Northern Chill – He ran 2nd in his last start and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Airborne Elite – He finished 3rd in his last race, has not raced for more than 11 months but has been steadily working out for his return and he has a winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Cathedral Beach
4 – Zeca Diabo
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6,8/1,6,8,9/2,5,8/1,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
8 – Magnetic Beach – She ran 2nd vs similar in only start, has the highest last race speed rating and she has a good 3F workout (Oct-30).
9 – Rando – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in a horse’s 1st time maiden claiming races.
6 – Mezcalifornia – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Don’t Worry – She was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar in her last start, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and she has a trainer who wins 18% of the races in in maiden claiming races she has a horse competing in.
Alternate:
12 – Reign Champagne
4 – Airforce Lightning
Race 4 -Female
5 – Blackfoot Daisy – She has an early foot so the cut back in distance is her key to win and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Bang Bang Fury – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Splattered – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in dirt starts that he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Sweet Trouble – She has a high % winning trainer, may improve in the 2nd start since her layoff and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
1 – Titania’s Dream
6 – Adalene
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,4,5,8
Race 5 -Female
6 – Reagan’s Flame – She tried a G3 race without success and drops in class today where she can be competitive at and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Benedetta – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Tanya Showers – She ran 2nd in her last race, has the highest last race speed, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
4 – Sing a Little Song – She finished 2nd in her last race and likes the distance.
Alternate:
5 – Trial
Bet: $16.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #6 – $6.00 Exacta: #6/1,3,4 – $2.00 DD: 6/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
$.50 Pick 3: #1,6/3,5,6,7/1,4,6,8
Race 6
7 – Stormin Love – He drops in class today, may improve in 2nd start since layoff, the longer distance may help and blinkers added today.
6 – Photo Op – He has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Ramesses – He has finished in the money in two out of his last three starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races in a horse’s 2nd start with this trainer and he has a good 4F workout on Oct-30.
Longshot:
3 – Munyhungry – He has a 2nd finish at Churchill downs out of three starts, hie has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Trap Line
10 – Saturday Long Legs
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,5,6,7,10/4,8/6,9/1,3,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
8 – Gerlin’s Empire – She won last her race at Churchill Downs, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Oct-23.
4 – Mascara – She won her debut race; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races in dirt starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Mean Eileen – She drops in class today, can improve at the shorter distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Autumn Rhythm – She won her debut race and she has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 4-0-2).
Alternate:
5 – Kentucky Smokeshow
2 – Rosato
Race 8
9 – Liberal Arts – He drops in class today, switches to a high % trainer who wins 33% of the races when using 1st time Lasix, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 5F workout on Oct-26.
6 – Two Eagles River – He ran 2nd in her last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – West Saratoga – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey and he has a bullet 5F workout on Oct-29.
Longshot:
2 – Lambeth – He has won two races out of his five career starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Two Eagles River
Race 9-Female
9 – Dia Estelar – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to a sprint, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming races and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – What’s Her Number – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Classic Mystery – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Bella Estrela – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Cat’s Symphony
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 5h Race – #6 – Reagan’s Flame
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Inside Out Bias
2 – SHOGUN BE FAST – TLRSP#+8
7 – NOT NORMAL – Top TOTAL PACE +6
1 – I’M YOUR MAN – drops in class and very consistent performer
3 – ETHEREAL ROAD – last work says he is going to send
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: 1-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – B SUDD – early speed and cutting back in distance helps
2 – CATHEDRAL BEACH – very consistent with strong LP
8 – TRUST DADDY – winner two in a row with better 2/4f pace
3 – AIRBORNE ELITE – maybe the most upside win just 5th race and some nice works
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Inside Out Bias
8 – MAGNETIC BEACH – just needs normal 2nd race improvement – maintenance work
7 – BLUSHING KAM – missed as FAV in debut – another that just needs to be better in round 2
9 – RANDO – MSW Dropper with 4 decent works between starts
1 – DON’T WORRY – tough call over the 6 -two good works and move to the inside helps
Race 4: 5 Furlongs – Bias: Just 1 Race – Stalker from 4-7
8 – BANG BANG FURY – consistent – some fast works getting ready for first since February
2 – SPLATTERED – Wesley Ward first timer 3/3 with a back bullet work Sep 12 – 4f in 47.3
4 – SWEET TROUBLE – we’ll toss the last and has some sharp works between races
5 – BLACKFOOT DAISY – maybe the most upside in just her 3rd races
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: 1-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
Wide Open Race
3 – TANYA SHOWERS – TLRSP#+3
1 – BENEDETTA – chance to be forward and 32 Q30 – looks like a drop in class too
6 – REAGAN’S FLAME – drops from a Grade 3 and unbeaten in 3 at the distance
2 – THE BIG CALHOUNA – chance to be forward and 32 Q30
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed, 24% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Inside Out Bias
3 – MUNYHUNGRY – TLRSP# +5 – Better ATB
6 – PHOTO OP – maybe best coming off a rest
5 – RAMESSES – hard to overlook the last work – best of published numbers
10 – SATURDAY LONG LEGS – MSW dropper in 3rd up – better 2/4f
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 23% w2w – PP: 1-7 Small Bonus, 8+ Discount
8 – GERLIN’S EMPIRE – better in 2nd up with a pair of bullet works between races
5 – KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW – return to a sprint after going a mile last out
1 – AUTUMN RHYTHM – any improvement from debut and she’s 2 for 2
4 – MASCARA – same story here in second career race
Race 8: 7 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 1 Race – Tactical Speed from 8+
6 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – TLRSP# +4 – chance to up it in 2nd up – lone E
9 – LIBERAL ARTS – drops from a series of graded stakes race
1 – BANISHING – big win – chance to be better in 2nd up
7 – AWESOME AARON – top TOTAL PACE +7
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Big Discount
3 – BELLA ESTRELA – TLRSP# +3 – and gets 1st Lasix
4 – YO LEVEN – always well bet and could be better returning to dirt
9 – DIA ESTELAR – speed and fade in last – cut back in distance helps
2 – PINK MOON – biggest MSW dropper – has ES and could be on the lead
