Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 11-13-2024
Race 1-Female
4 – Saranac Lake – She won last her race at Churchill Downs, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Grace Given – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
2 – Tres Chic – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – No Trust – She finished 3rd in her last race.
Alternate:
6 – Fasta Lavista Baby
5 – Floris
Race 2-Female
7 – Anna’s Promise – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last start, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and she can improve at the longer distance.
5 – Geez Eloise – She drops in class today; she has a trainer who wins 18% of the races in a horse’s 2nd route race.
1 – Boutwell Time – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse sprint-sprint-route and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Super Maxima – She drops in class today and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Sweet Marie
3 – Bayou Candy
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,7/1,3,6/4,6/1,9,10,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
6 – Mission River – He won his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Coulditbemajic – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Polar Bear Plunge – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races a horse he trains competes in.
Longshot:
5 – Patch O’Brien – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races a horse he trains runs in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Tiverton
Race 4 -Female
4 – Princess Is Olivia – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Miss Jeopardy – She has finished in the money in three out of her last four starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Balladry – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Very Wealthy – She has finished in the money in two out of his last four starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Frango Electrico
2 – Itsablingthing
$.50 Pick 4: 4,6/1,8,9,10,11,12/2,6/1,2,4,6 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $4.00 Exacta: #4/3,5,6
Race 5
1 – Vodka N Gingerale – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Real Conviction – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when taken a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race has and he has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Piquant – He has a high % winning trainer, he switches to a high % winning jockey, can improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
12 – Mister Rosso – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse has and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
11 – Staygoldponyboy
8 – Big Bourbon River
Race 6
6 – Dr Kringle – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – More Than Five – She finished 3rd in her last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
3 – Roundball Rock – He won his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – God of Wine – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Gold Search
8 – Twirling Troillet
Bet: $16.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #6 – $6.00 Exacta: #6/1,2,3 – $2.00 DD: 6/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
$.50 Pick 3: #6/1,2,4,6,8,11/6,8
Race 7-Female
4 – Global Allure – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in only start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Itwillbefun – She finished 4th in her last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-01.
6 – Hear the Queen – She has a high % winning trainer and switches high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Cuvee Creed – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the dirt starts a horse he trains competes in and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-03.
Alternate:
11 – Sweet Music
8 – Swooped Up Lilly
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,4,6,8,11/1,3,6,8/2,5/1,4 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
8 – Apollo Rising – He ran 2nd in his last start, has a trainer who wins 26% of the dirt starts a horse he trains competes in and he has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Unstable Prince – He has finished in the money in nine out of his last ten starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Curlin’s Gesture – He has won two races out of his six career starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – The Thunderer – He has won four races out of his last six starts, and he has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Lucency
4 – Interlock Empire
Race 9-Female
5 – Tweetster – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Connive – She has finished in the money in two out of two career starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Broughty Ferry – She has finished in the money in last four starts, winning one of the races and running 2nd vs similar in her last race.
Longshot:
7 – Leo Toro – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race, can improve while returning to dirt as she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.
Alternate:
4 – Chilled
10 – Union Mist
Race 10-Female
4 – Bam Bam – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the in maiden claiming races, she has a high % winning jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-02.
1 – Princess Pom Pom – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Tiz Sweet Emotion – She drops in class today and she can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
6 – Stagflation – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Here’s Gracie
12 – Proud Divi
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill – 6th Race – #6 – Dr Kringle
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bump
4 – SARANAC LAKE – TLRSP#+9 – lone E and could be really dangerous on the lead
2 – TRES CHIC – SIM FAV – top PAR Plus – class dropper – will be closing
1 – GRACE GIVEN – class dropper just needs to rewind a race
6 – FASTA LAVISTA BABY – 3rd up and class drop
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
7 – ANNA’S PROMISE – TLRSP# +7 – pacesetter with strong comfort zone – better ATB
1 – BOUTWELL TIME – small drop in class – either or 2 CD races work
2 – DANCETHENITEAWAY – first time starter 3/3 with 4f back work of 47.3
5 – GEEZ ELOISE – MSW dropper with some strong works between races
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bump
3 – COULDITBEMAJIC – class dropper in 3rd up after more than a year off
6 – MISSION RIVER – SIM FAV – top PAR + with TLRSP# and chance to improve it in 2nd up
5 – PATCH O’BRIEN – only horse with a par race on the recent resume – struggled at CD so far
7 – MISTER MOSCATO – pacesetter with better pace and fractions last out
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
4 – PRINCESS IS OLIVIA – TLRSP#+9 – cut back in distance should help
6 – MISS JEOPARDY – 3rd up – lone 3rd up was the best of the cycle – pair of maintenance works – bounce back coming
5 – BALLADRY – all or nothing 10/2-0-0 – wins come close or on the lead – should be close today
3 – VERY WEALTHY – pacesetter, strongest comfort zone, overlay
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
None of the experienced horse have a par race – going mostly 1sters
1 – VODKA N GINGERALE – 3/3 first timer with a back bullet – rail iffy
2 – SPENARD – 2.8/3 first timer decent works prepping
10 – PIQUANT – best of the experienced horse IMO – bounce back racing coming on MSW drop
6 – BONIFIED CRAZY – workouts are there – trainer solid in debuts – breeding is OK
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Best
2 – MORE THAN FIVE – SIM FAV and top PAR+ – off since May – OK off the bench w/decent series of works prepping
6 – DR KRINGLE – another coming off the bench – horse for the course, ITM 6/7 and 2/12 elsewhere
1 – GOD OF WINE – usually comes off the bench ready – class drop
9 – LUMIERE – tough call over the 3, but better EP and LP – strong overlay
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount Inside Better
1 – ITWILLBEFUN – some really good works between races and has a par race in debut
6 – HEAR THE QUEEN – just needs typical 2nd race improvement
2 – CUVEE CREED – best of the first timers IMO – 2.8/3
4 – GLOBAL ALLURE – another where 2nd race improvement could put her in the winners’ circle
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bump
8 – APOLLO RISING – TLRSP# and could take it higher in round two off the sidelines
2 – LUCENCY – most back class and won his lone trip at the track and distance with ease
1 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – much better EP and fractions last out – consistent performance
3 – THE THUNDERER – just needs to rewind one race back
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Bump
2 – CONNIVE – in store for a bounce back race in 3rd career start with fast work between races
5 – TWEETSTER – been super consistent and just missed at this level last out
1 – LITTLE JAMIE – dropping from a trio of stakes races
4 – CHILLED – TLRSP#+5 with the 6 sidelined by a scratch – a pair of fast works between
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 26% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
Wide open race
5 – TIZ SWEET EMOTION – top TOTAL PACE+9 – class drop – SIM FAV
12 – PROUD DIVI – MSW Dropper with enough early back speed to contend – a repeat of 2 of her 5 starts wins this
1 – PRINCESS POM POM – significant improvement last out – keep on that trend and has a good chance
9 – STREETS OF PARIS – Lone P and ran better fractions last out with better EP
