Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 11-27-2024
Race 1-Female
4 – Fun to Run – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse up one class and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Billie Cee – She can improve while trying dirt, she has a trainer who wins 35% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Global Queen – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Scarlet Red Sky – She had some trouble during her debut race but still finished 4th and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Airforce Lightning
Race 2
5 – Unstable Prince – He has finished in the money in eight out of the last ten starts, winning one of the races, did not like the mud in his last start so with a better surface should do well and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Sant’ Antimo – He has won two races out of the last four starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Tiwanaku – He ran 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Just Jimmy – He drops in class today and he has a trainer who wins 17% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Alternate:
7 – Kattath
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,7/4,6/1,2/3,4,6,7,8 – Cost $50.00
Race 3
6 – Protege – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Bebedouro – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a trainer who wins 26% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
3 – On My Honor – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Gamblers Tail – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
2 – Rocketeightyeight
7 – Zeca Diabo
Race 4 -Female
1 – Default – She has finished in the money in seven out of the last eight starts, winning two of the races, including the last start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Sweet Chablis – She drops in class today and she has a trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-sprint-route and she has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Tortuga Island – She won her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Ella Frances – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – She’s Jersey Tuff
6 – Chiquita Mosca
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,7,9/3,4,6,7,8/5,7,8,9/3 – Cost $50.00
Bet: $16.00 Win & $16.00 Place: #1 – $6.00 Exacta: #1/2,7,9 – $2.00 DD: 1/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
$.50 Pick 3: #2,7/3,4,6,7,8/1,2,5,7,8,9
Race 5-Female
3 – Punchy Girl – She ran 2nd in last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Sequin Lady – She ran 2nd in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Forever Home – She has won 36% of the race starts at Churchill Downs, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races dropping a horse off a claim.
Longshot:
4 – Cumberland Falls – She has finished in the money in four out of the last five starts and she has a bullet 4F workout on Nov-01.
Alternate:
6 – Mercy Warren
2 – Mirth ‘n Merriment
Race 6
7 – American Memories – He won his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Sixwillberich – He ran 2nd in his last race, only losing by a nose, he can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Hey Boss – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a trainer who wins 17% of the route races he has a horse competing in.
Longshot:
5 – Drip d’Oro – He has a trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in:
Alternate:
Race 7
3 – Barnes – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance, he has high % winning trainer Bob Baffert and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-15.
6 – Innovator – He drops in class today, his speed ratings make him a threat, he can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – D’oro Boy – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters, his Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Great Moment – He was a step slow and bumped in his debut race and finished poorly with these excuses and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Absolutely Hot
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,8/1,7,8,9 /1,2/1,2,10 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Key Box: #3/All
Race 8-Female
7 – Antique Silver – She has a perfect record at Churchill Downs winning two of the races out of two starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Sally O’Malley – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Hush It Honey – She has finished in the money in seven out of the last nine starts, winning four starts, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
9 – Sister Kisses – She finished in the money in her last four starts, running 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Play Good Pay Good
3 – Yo Puedo
Race 9-Female
1 – Ruthless Rua – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Miss Enchanted– She has won two races out of the last four starts, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Queen’s Martini – She finished 3rd in his last start as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Nay V Belle – She has finished in the money in two out of the three starts, winning one of the races, and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Charriere
5 – Steel Racer
Race 10
1 – Gun Barrel – He ran 2nd in his last start, he has a highest last race speed rating and the rail post is winning at a 24% clip.
2 – Air It Out – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Munyhungry – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
7 – Rope a Dope – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
13 – Chances Taken
8 – Indy Charge
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill – 4th Race – 1 – Default
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 Get a Bump
2 – SCARLET RED SKY – 2nd race improvement and it could be a wrap
4 – FUN TO RUN – TLRSP# +4 and a bullet work between races
7 – AIRFORCE LIGHTNING – better ATB and better fractions
1 – GLOBAL QUEEN – top TOTAL PACE +7
Race 2: 1 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
7 – KATTATH – maybe a big bounce back coming in 2nd up
4 – TIWANAKU – TLRSP#+4 and better ATB in last
3 – SANT’ ANTIMO – 3rd up with a bullet work between races
5 – UNSTABLE PRINCE – most consistent performer and won with ease the last time at this level
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Outside In – But Mostly Fair
6 – PROTÉGÉ – TLRSP#+4 – better ATB and Fractions in last
2 – ROCKETEIGHTYEIGHT – should be forward – maintenance work between races
4 – BEBEDOURO – room for improvement in 2nd up – drops, 3rd at this level two back – SIM FAV
1 – EPIC BATTLE – could be lone E if he can get to the front
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
7 – TORTUGA ISLAND – should be forward – better ATB in last – not the biggest fan of track risers
9 – ELLA FRANCES – potential to be better in 3rd up –
1 – DEFAULT – never off the board in 3 at CD – bullet work between races
6 – CHIQUITA MOSCA – some much more LS than the rest – going a little longer could help
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – PUNCHY GIRL – some strong works prepping for first since mid September
8 – SEQUIN LADY – just missed in her last and has a couple of maintenance works since
7 – FOREVER HOME – claim and drop – would be majorly profitable – winner 5/14 at CD
6 – MERCY WARREN – w2w in last – 2nd up should look a lot like the 1st
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 26% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
4 – EXPRESS CRUISER – let’s take a flyer – only horse with a par race on Resume – better pace middle out late in last – 2nd up
9 – SIXWILLBERICH – TLRSP#+3 – better ATB and never off the board in 4 at CD
8 – HEY BOSS – one of his strongest races in first after more than a year on the sidelines – boom or bust race coming
10 – TRANSCENDENTAL – another flyer – top TOTAL PACE +8 – doing dirt for the first time – works on dirt and synthetic say it should be OK and the breeding for the surface is there
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed. 58% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Best, 8+ Fair
3 – BARNES – 3/3 first timer – Baffert with a $3.2 million horse – Kentucky Derby hopeful?
6 – INNOVATOR – has two race on resume that are above PAR
9 – SINISTER SMILE – trainer pops at 18% with 1sters and oh my – Halloween 4f CD work in 46.3 breezing
2 – COLONEL CALIENTE – 2nd highest rated firster with a 4f CD work in 47.1
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – Major Inside Out
1 – SALLY O’MALLEY – winner two in a row – making two starts in a row for the first time – finally healthy angle?
7 – ANTIQUE SILVER – 3SP# increases – better ATB in last – 3rd up
8 – HUSH IT HONEY – class drop – 3rd when she last ran at this level
9 – SISTER KISSES – just missed at this level out – 2nd off the sidelines should look like the last
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Outside In – But Mostly Fair
1 – RUTHLESS RUA – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – and TLRSP#+ 12 – bullet work between races -3SP# Increases
2 – MISS ENCHANTED – SIM FAV – and consistent performer
6 – NAY V BELLE – 3rd off the bench – better 2/4f pace in last
7 – CHARRIERE – strong comfort zone and top 3 PAR+
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 28% w2w – Major Inside Out
1 – GUN BARREL – only horse with a par race – TLRSP#+7 – Top TOTAL PACE +6
2 – AIR IT OUT – better ATB with faster fractions
6 – COWBOY LUKE – 3 SP# increases and could be pacesetter
10 – MUNYHUNGRY – doesn’t look like it – but faster time last out
