Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 10-30-2024
Race 1
5 – Bernin Hot – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – River in Egypt – He has finished in the money in his last three starts, winning two of the races and the rail post is winning at 23% clip.
6 – Seas of Normandy – He won his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Cawkab – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, can improve while returning to a route and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Harleezy
4 – Drip d’Oro
Race 2
8 – Mackadoo – He ran 3rd in his only start as the heavily bet favorite, he has a high % winning trainer and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-9 at Churchill.
6 – Jujubee – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking blinkers off and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – All the Luck – He has finished in the money in two of his four career starts, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Asleep At Eight – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and can improve with blinkers added today.
Alternate:
2 – Crooked Bullet
4 – Coming in Hot
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6,8/5,6/2,7,10/3,5,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
5 – Youalmosthadme – She has finished in the money in all eleven career starts, winning five of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Halina’s Forte – She has won two out of her last four races, drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and she has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-24.
4 – Hush It Honey – She has finished in the money in the last three starts, winning two of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Blue Squall – She won her last race and she has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-20.
Alternate:
1 – Moonlit Lady
Race 4 -Female
10 – Cruz Chica – She has finished in the money in two of her three career starts, finishing 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
7 – Fun to Run – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when dropping down 2+ classes and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Lovebug – She drops in class today; she has a trainer who wins 17% of the races in a horse’s 1st race at a route and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – We Hear You – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when dropping down 2+ classes and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
9 – Judy’s Flyer
$.50 Pick 4: #2,6,7,10/3,5,7,8/3,10/2,3,7 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,6,7,10
Race 5
8 – Bye Bye Liam – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Spurrier – He has won two races out of six career starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Hoppin John – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Stop the Spread – He has a high % winning jockey.
Race 6
10 – Call of Honor – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Metatron’s Muse – He has finished in the money four races out of his last five starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Sir Ollie – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Cox Canyon – He won his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Liam the Brave
4 – Coyote Road
DD: $2.00: #3,10/2,3,7
$.50 Pick 3: #3,10/2,3,7/7,8,9,10,11,12
Race 7-Female
2 – Sonhador– She has finished in the money in three career races including finishing 3rd in her last start at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Happy Talk – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a bullet 5F workout on Oct-22.
7 – Islander – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning trainer jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Barbanera – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in dirt starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Rainbow Glow
4 – Thanksgiving
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,6,7/7,8,9,10,11,12/9/1,2,5,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
9 – Briterdayzahead – He has won two out of his last races three starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Love the Nest – He has won seven out of his last races ten starts, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
11 – Tilted Towers – He ran 4th in his last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Kattath – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
12 – Knicks Story
10 – I Got No Munny
Race 9
9 – Senior Officer – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Attache – He has finished in the money nine races in his last ten starts, winning four of the races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Miracle Worker – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Goldbrick – He won his debut race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Linebacker
12 – Thoughtthatcounts
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #9 – $6.00 Exacta: #9/4,6,8 – $2.00 DD: 9/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Race 10
5 – Come to Papa – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Vincita – He finished in 4th after trouble in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse competing in.
8 – Rocket Night – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Wicked Melody – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Mo Hope
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – 9 – Senior Officer
