Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 9-12-2024
Race 1
1 – Sell It – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden-to-maiden claiming race, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and he has a high % winning jockey.
12 – Colonel Yorke – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
11 – Asleep At Eight – He should improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden-to-maiden claiming race.
Longshot:
4 – Hank Hill – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Brave Words
3 – Gardiner
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,11,12
Race 2
1 – Gilded Craken – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Dance Some Mo – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has trainer who wins 18% of the route races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – J T’s Imagination – He has won two races out of four starts at Churchill Downs, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and, he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Mucho Mojo – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
6 – He’s a Angel
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4/1,2,4,8/2,8/2,3,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
4 – Active Duty – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Tis Charming – He has high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races the 2nd time using Lasix and he has a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-0-1).
1 – Mo Hope – He drops in class today and may improve with blinkers added today.
Longshot:
8 – Lucchesi – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
13 – Jon’s Street Band
10- Remarkable Mo
Race 4
8 – Dazzlemesilver – He finished in the money in all three of his start at Churchill Downs, winning one of the starts, he has high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Stingy – He finished 3rd in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Extra Halo – He won his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Uncle Berley – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Town Branch
Race 5
3 – Free Country – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 7 starters and 1 stakes winner, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-05 and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Mitty’s Griddy – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Sep-07.
9 – El Prestigio – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Campaign Trail – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-06.
Alternate:
5 – Perfect Force
4 – Putting Eagl
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,5,9,10/7/1,6,9,10/3,5,7,10 – Cost $48.00
$.50 Pick 3: #2,3,5,9,10/7/1,9
Race 6-Female
7 – Oliviera – She won her debut race by 11-lengths, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Echo Sound – She won her debut race and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Anakarina – She drops in class today, her early speed running style helps her chances, may improve at the shorter distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a bullet 5F workout on Sep-05.
Longshot:
5 – Roshiell My Belle – She is one for one at Churchill Downs, she can improve while returning to dirt and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Thunder Kin
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #7 – $5.00 Exacta: #7/4,5,6 – $$2.00 DD: 7/ALL
Race 7
1 – Recker Point – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he likes the distance finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.
9 – Extra Anejo – He has high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Raise Cain – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-24.
Longshot:
10 – Bromley – He won his last race; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a bullet 5F workout on Sep-04.
Alternate:
5 – Arro Smash
3 – Gulfstream Way
Bet: $1.00 Exacta: #1/6,9,10
Race 8
3 – Zandvoort – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Quintillion – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and a good 3F workout on Sep-08.
10 – Bracket Buster – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-04.
Longshot:
7 – Big Boat – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Sep-07.
Alternate:
8 – Copp
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,5,7,10
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race – #7 – Oliviera
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 34% w2w – PP: Inside Out, Inside 3 Edge
6 – DOWN THE ISLANDS – 2.5 first timer with a classic 5 furlong work as his last
2 – BRAVE WORDS – MSW dropper that just needs similar improvement as he showed in his 2nd start
4 – HANK HILL – another that if he takes the a similar step forward in race 3 as race number 2
12 – COLONEL YORKE –
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Small Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Bad
1 – GILDED CRAKEN – Tyler G rides here and not the 3 – for what it’s worth
3 – DANCE SOME MO – most back class – should hold speed longer in 2nd start off the bench
2 – J T’S IMAGINATION – all or nothing at CD 4/2-0-0 – never off the board in 3 at the distance
5 – HARLEEZY – strong LP versus most of these – should be threatening late
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Small Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Small Discount
4 – ACTIVE DUTY – Church 6/0-2-2 – TLRSP# and has some nice works prepping – likes the track
1 – MO HOPE – 2nd by a length the only time he ran at this level
12 – BERNIN HOT – class dropper – off since late July – some strong works prepping – Aug 15 of 4 furlongs in 47.4 – could be sitting on a strong one today
10 – REMARKABLE MO – returns to dirt and will run at his lowest level
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 17% w2w – PP: Outside In – The Rail is Better than 2/3
8 – DAZZLEMESILVER – drop in class –consistent runner where any of his last 5 could win here
12 – UNCLE BERLEY – most upside in the race – if he can run back 2 races – EZ win
2 – STINGY – probably been squaring up against tougher competition
10 – SUPREMELY –but 3rd up should be better than the last and has some strong LP
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In
All Race for Sure
14 – BOB MO – 3 of 3 first timer and the works are consistently fast = fast horse
9 – EL PRESTIGIO – just needs to rerun last race – builds on it at all and it would take a strong effort to beat
3 – FREE COUNTRY – another 3/3 first timer – great last bullet and go
4 – PUTTING EAGLE – the third 3/3 First timer with fast back works too
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In
7 – OLIVIERA – any improvement in 2nd career start – but Colonial to Churchill track rise or flat?
6 – ECHO SOUND – should not be too far of the EP and showed robust LS in debut despite 4w trip
4 – ANAKARINA – maybe too much ES for the rest – tried a G3 at Toga last out – back to CD with a bullet work – Mike Smith
5 – ROSHIELL MY BELLE – run back to the CD debut on dirt could be enough – tried turf at Monmouth for some reason in 2nd race
Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 6 Races, Early Speed, 2 w2w – PP: All but 1 win from 4-7, the other 2/3
3 – GULFSTREAM WAY – rerun the September 16 2023 CD race and it a trip to the winners circle
9 – EXTRA ANEJO – drops from a GIII – has electric LS at times
6 – RAISE CAIN – tied for the TLRSP, bullet work since and drops in class
7 – KAVOD – all or nothing at CD 7/3-0-0 – the start is everything – get forward is the key – should be there today
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Outside In
11 – KALAHARI DREAMS – 3/3 first timer with some excellent works
1 – FURIO – 2.8 First timer with a bunch of strong 5f works – fit for sure
3 – ZANDVOORT – was 5/2 fav in debut – normal 2nd race improvement might prove to be too much for the rest
5 – QUINTILLION – finished behind the 3 last out with a slow start – has a 3f work since -going to send today
