Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Churchill – 9-25-2024
Race 1-Female
1 – Lil Gin N Class – She has finished in the money in seven of her nine career starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Palmetto Fury – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Little Sister Sue – She ran 2nd in her last race for the third time and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Bright Lady Day – She has finished in the money in her last three starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Mila Junes
5 – Itsablingthing
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,2,3,4
Race 2-Female
7 – Sip’n’ Speed – She finished 3rd in both of her career races, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Mizmalice – She ran 5th in her last race after having trouble at the start, she has the highest last race speed rating, the rail post is winning at a 27% clip and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in maiden claiming races.
6 – Joyful Josephine – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and she has a good 4F workout on Sep-13.
Longshot:
3 – Spunderella – She drops in class today and can improve at the longer distance.
Alternate:
4 – Kim Possible
2 – Combattante
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7/2/2,3,4,8/1,2,5,6,8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
2 – Sherbet Fountain – She has finished in the money in four of her last five starts, winning two of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Princess Is Olivia – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
6 – She’s Jersey Tuff – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and she has a good 4F workout on Sep-15.
Longshot:
7 – Weather Map – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 4
4 – Pike Place – He has won two out of the last five race, drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from the turf to dirt.
3 – Thunderian – He ran 5th in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Huge Bigly – He has finished in the money in four of his last six starts, winning four of the races, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a bullet 4F workout on Aug 25.
Longshot:
2 – Breadman – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and can improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
5 – My Noble Knight
6 – Soaring Bird
Race 5
8 – Hoff – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in his only start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Landing Craft – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters, he has a Sire who wins 16% of the races with 1st time starters and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-20.
9 – Brotha Keny – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 7 starters, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-20.
Longshot:
5 – Tap Em’ Out – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and 2 stakes winners and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Endrick
1 – Moral
Race 6-Female
12 – Sakura Sky – She finished in the money in two of her last four career starts, has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes, has a high % winning jockey and Lasix is added.
8 – Despo’s Dream – She drops in class today, may improve while returning to dirt and returning to a sprint, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-18.
5 – Tempting Lady – She ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Miss Escapade – She ran 3rd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and blinkers added today.
$.50 Pick 4: #4,5,8,12/1,2,4,6/11/1,3,6,7,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
4 – Mr. Wireless – He drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie), his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – War Campaign – He has finished in the money in six of his last seven starts, winning four of the races at Churchill Downs, and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Frosted Departure – He has won three out of the last five race, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a good 5F workout on Sep-14.
Longshot:
1 – Fair and Square – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Trademark
3 – Howling Time
DD: $2.00: #1,2,3,4,5,6/11
$.50 Pick 3: #1,2,4,6/11/1,4,7,8,9,10
Race 8-Female
11 – Wailua – She has won two out of three career races including her only start at Churchill Downs, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 4F workout on Sep-01.
3 – Girls Weekend – She ran 2nd in her last race, her early speed running style helps her chances so she should improve at the shorter distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Brunch Punch – She finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Sep-18.
Longshot:
6 – Zen Moment – She won in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Blue Squall
9 – Dot
Bet: $16.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #11 – $6.00 Exacta: #11/3,4,6 – $2.00 DD: 11/1,4,7,8,9,10
Race 9
7 – Curlin’s Gesture – He has won two out of his last races three and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Flat On – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Parkway – He has finished in the money in his last three starts, winning one of the races and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Atlantic Dancer – He ran 2nd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 27% clip and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – Copper Echo
4 – Pancake House
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #11 – Wailua
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
4 – PALMETTO FURY – has enough early speed to go w2w – facing lighter company too
1 – LIL GIN N CLASS – has run well off the bench, nice bullet work and drops from 3 HINDY NGSTKs
2 – LITTLE SISTER SUE – will be closing – has run OK at CD 5/0-0-3
6 – MILA JUNES – very consistent performer and gets a weight break today
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Strong Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
3 – SPUNDERELLA – MSW dropper, got off to a slow start, a bunch of 3f works says – going try and start faster
6 – JOYFUL JOSEPHINE – decently bet in debut, MSW dropper and some sweet works at CD
1 – MIZMALICE – 2nd race improvement puts this one in contention – bothered at the start in debut
7 – SIP’N’ SPEED – will be closing, improved a lot in the 2nd start, similar step forward needed here
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
2 – SHERBET FOUNTAIN – either CD run is likely a winner
1 – PRINCESS IS OLIVIA – probably should be ranked first, but the rail is yet to win
7 – WEATHER MAP – 3rd up and likely rebound race based on only other 3rd up
4 – BOBBIE SOX – speed and fade in debut, more stamina today
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 3/5 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Best
8 – HUGE BIGLY – first up record solid – most back class and bullet work prepping
6 – SOARING BIRD – 3rd after a layoff, plenty of good runs at CD
4 – PIKE PLACE – a head away from winning both CD race and drops in class
2 – BREADMAN – 3rd up – drops in class and usually pairs peak efforts
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 16% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
6 – LANDING CRAFT – 3/3 first timer and cannot get past the 4f back bullet of 46.4 at Keeneland
8 – HOFF – 2nd race improvement will be enough
9 – BROTHA KENY – 3/3 first time starter with bullet and go
5 – TAP EM’ OUT – 2.8 first timer with plenty of fast works getting ready
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
8 – DESPO’S DREAM – drops in class and has a couple of nice 5f works between races
4 – MISS ESCAPADE – tons of ES w/ Q40 score – 2nd up – 3 good works between races
5 – TEMPTING LADY – should be better in 2nd up, has a nice work and has hit par for this level
7 – STREETS OF PARIS – moving up following 4f works in 46.4 – woke up?
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Strong Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
4 – MR. WIRELESS – ITM 9/9 at the distance – has the most back class and faced the toughest
2 – WAR CAMPAIGN – horse for the course 7/3-0-3 – just 1 win in 13 anywhere else
6 – FROSTED DEPARTURE – ML FAV after rough G2 run – back to a level where he won by 8 ¾ lengths
1 – FAIR AND SQUARE – hot rail, loves to win, facing the toughest he’s seen today though
Race 8: 5 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail Bonus. 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
4 – BRUNCH PUNCH – lightly raced horse and some nice works – if she gets off to a hot start
6 – ZEN MOMENT – repeat that last CD run and it’s back to back Ws
3 – GIRLS WEEKEND – probably facing better at Toga, first time making 3 starts in a row, finally healthy?
11 – WAILUA – lightly raced – moving up the speed scale – smoked in lone CD run – wanted to put first, but outside posts have it hard
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Strong Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
10 – FLAT ON – very likely to improve in 2nd up, but the outside posts are a challenge
7 – CURLIN’S GESTURE – lightly raced – 1 for 1 in an easy CD win – 3rd up for the first time – healthy?
11 – PURSUIT OF POWER – flip the switch back one race and he wins
9 – PARKWAY – tough call over the 8, both have similar ES, but he has more LS
