Churchill Downs Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Churchill Downs Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Shes a Secret – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Goldblooded – She is one for one at Churchill Downs.
1 – Tamara’s Way – She should improve while returning to dirt and returning to a sprint will help.
Longshot:
4 – Social Mandate – She drops in class today, and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,3,6/3,4,5,7
Race 2
7 – Wreck It Ruby – She ran 2nd vs tougher (on Turf) in her last race and drops in class today.
5 – Choctaw Grace – She has the best dirt speed among today’s starters, has the highest last race speed rating and can improve at the longer distance.
4 – Dooblay – She drops in class today, has a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt.
Longshot:
3 – Autism Compassion – She has a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when his horse has 1st time blinkers and can improve at the longer distance.
Alternate:
2 – Rose Darling
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #3,4,5,7 – 3rd race #6,7 – 4th race #1,2,4 – 5th race #10
Race 3
6 – Master Game – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a horse back from a 46–90-day break.
7 – Sant’ Antimo – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and drops in class today.
4 – Coastal Defense – He finished 5th in his last race after having trouble during the race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Long Crow – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Call Me Gusto
5 – Navy Cross
Bet: $2.00 WP: #6
Race 4
4 – My Brother Keith – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to Dirt and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Honor Gold – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 18% clip; he has a high % winning trainer, and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-15.
2 – Booster Shot – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (8 2-0-2).
Longshot:
9 – Generation – He drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking an entry from a maiden to maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
8 – Creative Way
7 – Solevo
Bet: $2.00 WP: #4
Race 5
10 – Stormquist – He drops in class, his speed rating earned in his only start labels him a threat and he has a trainer who wins 32% of the races when taking an entry from a maiden to maiden claiming race.
9 – Wecallemfuncoupons – He is a first-time starter, who has a Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and his breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
3 – Vino Fa Danza – He is a first-time starter, who has a Dam who has 4 winners from 8 starters and has a bullet 3f workout on Sept. 5th.
Longshot:
6 – Waldrip – He first time starter and has a good 4F workout on Sep-10.
Alternate:
8 – Debt Paid
1 – Notorious Sixohtwo
Bet: $20.00 Win: #10 – $.50 Pick 5 – 5th race #10 – 6th race #2,7 – 7th race #1,2,5 – 8th #5,9 – 9th – #12
Race 6
7 – Beauxs Artes – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Mischievous Gal – She can improve while returning to the dirt, has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse from a route race to a sprint and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Wiki Lio – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races the 1st time a horse competes in a claiming race and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Longshot:
5 – Ball Gown – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Mean Sue
9 – Candy Kick
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th race #2,7 – 7th race #1,2,5 – 8th #5,9 – 9th – #12
Race 7
2 – Shimmer Me Timbers – He has finished in the money in five out six starts this year, winning three of the races and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – Coppola –He ran 2nd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 24% clip and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Bodenheimer – He won his last race at Remington Park, and he has a good 3F workout on Sep-14.
Longshot:
6 – Kavod – The shorter distance should help, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Vulcan
3 – Johnny Unleashed
Bet: None
Race 8
9 – Retained – He has won three out of his last race four starts, finishing 3rd (on AW) in his last race and may improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Giant Mischief – He has won two out of four starts during his short career, drops in class today, should improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Blue Light – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a route race to a sprint and he has a good 5F workout on Sep-10.
Longshot:
4 – Bromley – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in last race, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $10.00 Win: #9 – $1.00 DD: 5,9/4,5,12
Race 9-Female
12 – Shimmering Allure – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint-Sprint-Route and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Promisemeanempire – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-2).
5 – Up On the Edge – She ran 2nd in her only start, earning the highest last race speed rating, may improve at the longer distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Gold Del Mar – She drops in class today.
Alternate:
9 – Despo’s Dream
10 – Wee Bit O Mischief
Bet: $20.00 WP: #12
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 28% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In Bias
3 – SHES A SECRET – should be part of the EP and has some of the best late speed
2 – DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE – tie TLRSP# and has a bullet and go work – lone C – all else mid-forward
6 – GOLDBLOODED – has top EP and LP – hard to pass what you cannot catch, 2nd up should be better, at worst the same
7 – COOL CAROL – price that should be forward and gets a weight break at a price
Suggested Wager: $1 Double 2,3,6/5,7
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
5 – CHOCTAW GRACE – TLRSP# In debut with a pair of maintenance works, MSW dropper
7 – WRECK IT RUBY – on the upswing, better fractions and maybe better in first 3rd up
4 – DOOBLAY – regressing, a nice strong work suggests a bounce back here
6 – PUCKERED – MSW dropper off to a bad start in debut, better start might be the difference today
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/4,6/4,6,8/3,5,6,10
Race 3: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
6 – MASTER GAME – aggressive drop in class, unquestionably best works getting ready for 1st since July
4 – COASTAL DEFENSE – 1st off the claim for tr Juan Cano 19% v 14% – most back class by a big amount
1 – TREATY – pace setter, going to take money – tr 1 for 19, jy 0-21
7 – SANT’ ANTIMO – dropping in class off a win, upped speed # in both races after debut
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,6/1,4,6/1,3,4,60.5
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
4 – MY BROTHER KEITH – TLRSP# – dropping in class – strong LP, a better start could make him tough to beat
6 – GORDY’S LABEL – MSW dropper, well bet in CD debut, off since July – works getting ready have been good
8 – CREATIVE WAY – MSW dropper – Tyler G strong start at CD – 24% – September 3rd work of 47.4 is strong
7 – SOLEVO – MSW dropper, showed EP and the drop should move him forward
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,6,8/4,6/4,5,6,7,8
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 28% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In Bias
6 – WALDRIP – some really good back works, July 30 47.4 – 2nd fastest of 94 – maintenance works since
10 – STORMQUIST – was 9/5 favorite in debut, MSW dropper for Brad Cox – 32% for 28% overall
5 – EAST FROM WEST – back bullet angle, AUG 30 at CD – 5f fastest of 21 – pair of maintenance works
3 – VINO FA DANZA – we’ll take a flyer with a bullet and go
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,10/5,6,10/3,5,6,8,10
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 15% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
7 – BEAUXS ARTES – likely pacesetter – all comes down to LP – drop in class should help
3 – MENDED WE STAND – TLRSP# in MCL 16k win – much better ATB, maybe better in 3rd up
5 – BALL GOWN – consistent performer, top Total Pace horse, 24f works since stopping on Aug 1
6 – MEAN SUE – cannot overlook Sep 15th work – 4f in 47.3
Suggested Wager:
Race 7: 5 Furlongs Turf – Bias: Tactical Speed – 15% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4+ Small Bonus
1 – COPPOLA – tie TLRSP# and only horse with a triple digit number in recent past
4 – VULCAN – other to tie TLRSP# with super tr Alpha Angle – 37% -second off the claim tr Chris Hartman vs 20% overall
2 – SHIMMER ME TIMBERS – going to be pacesetter and seems to be gaining more stamina with improving LP
5 – BODENHEIMER – won 4 in a row on turf at lower tier tracks, tough call over the 6, but 6 hasn’t fired on turf yet
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6,7/1,4/3,5,8,11/5,12
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 28% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In Bias
5 – GIANT MISCHIEF – possibly classiest horse in the field, blisteringly strong EP in KD qualifier G2 rebel stakes as one of the favorites – works are OK
11 – LARK’S MISCHIEF – Tied TLRSP#, bullet and go work – distance 5/2-0-2
3 – BLUE LIGHT – double bullet works since last start – cutting back in distance is going to help
8 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – debuted at CD with a 104 speed figure, this is the first time he’s coming off the bench – looking for debut repeat at a price
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5,11/5,11/3,5,8,10,11
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed – 14% w2w -PP: Bad Rail, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Best, 8+ Penalty
5 – UP ON THE EDGE – money burner as FAV in both starts – improved enough in round 2 to give consideration one more time going long for the 1st time
12 – SHIMMERING ALLURE – getting better race to race to race – good late pace which should help in first route
2 – GOLD DEL MAR – better fractions – much better EP, maybe flip to dirt helps – 10 pound weight break helps for sure
6 – STERLING LUCK – taking a flyer on the 1st timer with some nice early AUG works – including a bullet followed by a string of maintenance works
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,12/2,5,12/2,5,6,10,12
