Churchill Downs
Wide-Open Races & Value?
It’s Humpday at Churchill Downs, with nine races and a card that could give us plenty of opportunities to get away from the obvious horses.
We’ve got plenty of routes and maiden races, a mix of fast dirt and firm turf, and several races that look absolutely wide open. When there isn’t an obvious standout, finding the right piece of information can make all the difference.
Rich and Terry will put the Smart Sheets to work digging into SIM Odds, SIM Speed, pace, C-Zone and race shape, while the maiden races bring Back Bullets, Bullet and Go, First Timer ratings and 2nd Race Parability into play.
Deep, competitive races can make handicapping tougher — but they can also create bigger prices when you’re right.
Nine races. Wide-open fields. Humpday at Churchill. Let’s find the horses the crowd misses.
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Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf
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Race 1 – Female
6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Terry’s Picks
7 – Don’t Say It: Won 3 races out of the last 5 starts; Drops in class today Highest last race speed rating.
4 – Turf Rocket: Switches to a high% trainer who wins 26% of Claiming races; Switches to a high % jockey.
6 – Vicki Rose: Won last race; trainer who wins 18% of Claiming races.
Longshot:
5 – Patty Cakes: Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
2 – Mombayla
Rich’s Picks
7 – DON’T SAY IT – only class dropper +10 TLRSP#, SIM Speed and +9 Top TOTAL PACE
6 – VICKI ROSE – consistent performer – standout C ZONE
5 – PATTY CAKES – most upside – first up ?
4 – TURF ROCKET – another making the 1st up start and consistent
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 5: 7/5/5,6/2,4,6,8/2,4,7,9
Race 2
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Discount 8+
Terry’s Picks
4 – Salty Viking: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can improve at the longer distance; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Mo Octane: Highest last race speed rating; Can improve at the longer distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Moycullen: 3rd in debut; troubled next race, which I’ll ignore; strong jockey stats.
Longshot:
3 – Linus: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Strong jockey stats.
Alternates:
1 – Charging Force
2 – Lux Aeterna
Terry’s Suggested Wagers
$.50 Pick 4: 4,5/4,5,6/6,8/1,4,7,9,10,11,12,13
Cost: $48.00
$10.00 Win: 4
$5.00 Exacta: 4/5
$3.00 Exacta Box: 3,4,5,6
Cost: $45.00
Rich’s Picks
5 – MO OCTANE – 2nd race Parability way past par
7 – PATRICIO – highest rated 1ster vs all noes and the 5
4 – SALTY VIKING – moving up the speed ladder and 2 works between starts
2 – LUX AETERNA – got to go with the Metallica horse
Rich’s Suggested Wagers
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/2,5,6/2,4,6,8/2,4,7,9
$2 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,4,7,8
Race 3
1 1/16 Miles – Stalkers, Small Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
6 – Onthestage: Finished in the money in the last 4 races, finishing 2nd in the last start; Switches to a high% trainer and jockey.
4 – Dai Vernon: Won last race at Churchill; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
5 – National Eclipse: Won last race at Keenland; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – J B Strikes Back: Won 3 races out of the last 5 starts; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong jockey stats.
Alternates:
1 – Mena
3 – Neon Nights
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 6
$10.00 Exacta Box: 4/6
$5.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,4,5
Cost: $60.00
Rich’s Picks
5 – NATIONAL ECLIPSE – should be forward with tom C ZONE – 3rd up and Jose
6 – ONTHESTAGE – biggest in race edge of +8 LS – better in 2nd up
2 – J B STRIKES BACK – boom or bust in 2nd start after more than a year off AoN 11/4-0-0
3 – NEON NIGHTS – Top TOTAL PACE – tough call over the 4
Race 4
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Discount 8+
Terry’s Picks
8 – Kamassa: Ran 4th in last race as the favorite but has a High % winning trainer who wins 36% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey; Good 4F workout (Nov-01).
6 – Belzoni: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4 – Torcello: First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
7 – Star of the Union: First time starter whose High % winning trainer wins 17% with 2YO horses; Strong jockey stats.
Alternate:
3 – Wiley Operator
Rich’s Picks
8 – KAMASSA – 2nd race Parability a little past par
6 – BELZONI – only YES = most have
4 – TORCELLO – Top Rated 1ster with a back bullet
2 – JOHNNY WYOMING – 2nd rated 1ster and most expensive in the field
Race 5
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers, Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
4 – American Veteran: Blinkers added today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Kauffman Veteran: First time starter Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Bullet 5F workout (Oct-31); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
12 – Rivelli: High % winning trainer and Jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Mo Misery: High % winning trainer; Good 4F workout (Oct-31).
Alternates:
7 – Voa Broadway
11 – Col Frank Slade
13 – Platinum Power
Rich’s Picks
4 – AMERICAN VETERAN – 2nd Race Parability on Veteran’s Day – there can be no other
9 – KAUFFMAN – top Rated 1ster with BGO and Back Bullet
7 – VOA BROADWAY – 2nd Rated 1ster
2 – FORTY ONE CARROTS – longshot 1st timer
Race 6 – Female
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair 1-7, Small Discount 8+
Terry’s Picks
9 – Cara Felce: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
4 – Love Knicks Hart: Won last out at Keenland; high-win% trainer; switches to a high-win% jockey.
6 – Lost Chord: Won last race at Keenland; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Can handle the distance.
Longshot:
5 – Hold My Halo: Finished in the money in the last 4 races, winning 1 and finishing 3rd in the last start; Can handle the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Muffin Music
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 4,5,6,9/7,12/6,14/4,5,10,12
Cost: $32.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – TIZIANNA – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – extra distance could help
9 – CARA FELCE – 3rd up and returns to 1 mile at CD – win in her career best
4 – LOVE KNICKS HART – SIM Odds FAV – top C ZONE and upgrades to Jose
2 – MUFFIN MUSIC – tough call over the 6 – crushed in last with a solid work since
Rich’s Suggested Wagers
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,9/1,11,12/3,6,11/5,10,12
$2 Exacta Key Box: 1/2,4,6,9
Race 7
6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 6+ Discount
Terry’s Picks
12 – Cyberstee: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% with a horses 1st Time Maiden Claiming; Has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Uncle With Money: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – Enoughisenough: Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% taking a horse down 2+ classes; Strong jockey stats.
Longshot:
5 – Clever Heist: Can improve while trying Dirt; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% with a horses 1st Time Maiden Claiming; Has a high % winning jockey.
Alternates:
4 – Kilmaloo
8 – Lawson’s Legacy
Rich’s Picks
12 – CYBERSTEEL – only YES = Must have
11 – CENTRICITY – Top Rated 1ster
1 – ENOUGHISENOUGH – tough trip in Debut – a pair of good works
6 – REACH FOR GLORY – another 1ster and not much to beat in here
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,6,11,12
Race 8
1 Mile Turf – Deep Closers, Inside 3 Strong, 4-7 Bad, 8+ Fair
Terry’s Picks
14 – Just Buy It: Won last race Kentucky Downs; Good 4F workout (Oct-30); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Natural Rights: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Can handle the distance.
10 – Irish Law: Drops in class today; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Without Caution: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Switches to a high % jockey; Good 4F workout (Nov-02).
Alternate:
6 – Natural Rights
Rich’s Picks
3 – WITHOUT CAUTION – off for more than a year – seen better – draws Jose – +works
6 – NATURAL RIGHTS – as steady as can be – turf breeding is off the charts
11 – TATERPIE – super steady with Top TOTAL PACE +7
5 – SHERIFF BART – most upside – most likely to run a par race – lone w first up – +works
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,5,6,11
Race 9
6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
12 – Final Statement: First time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
5 – McDavid: First time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 9 starters; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
4 – Five for Four: Debut starter; sire wins 18% with debut runners; dam has 1 winner from 1 starter; breeding suits today’s sprint; strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
10 – Double Arrow: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Blinkers added today; Bullet 5F workout (Oct-30).
Alternates:
8 – Beam Tracker
6 – Francisco
Rich’s Picks
12 – FINAL STATEMENT – Top Rated 1ster 3.00 with BGO and BB
5 – MCDAVID – 2nd rated 1ster with Back Bullet
10 – DOUBLE ARROW – 2nd race Parability
8 – BEAM TRACKER – 3rd rated 1ster
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Churchill Downs – Race 3 – #6 Onthestage
6 – Onthestage: Finished in the money in the last 4 races, finishing 2nd in the last start; Switches to a high% trainer and jockey.
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20.00 Win: 6
$10.00 Exacta Box: 4/6
$5.00 Exacta: 6/1,2,4,5
Cost: $60.00
