Race 9 • The $150,000 Dashing Beauty Stakes

Delaware Park • 6 Furlongs

The Profile of a Winner tells us that Delaware Park’s six-furlong stakes reward horses that can establish position early. Twenty-six percent of winners have gone gate-to-wire, making tactical speed an advantage. Historically, the rail has been strongest, posts 2 and 3 have performed about as expected, posts 4 through 7 have been slightly below expectation, while the outside posts have produced a small positive return.

Today’s field offers a fascinating mix of class, pace, value, and projected race shape.

1 – ANAKARINA (7/2 ML • 6-1 SIM)

The Case For

ANAKARINA is one of the more interesting overlays in the race. While the Morning Line suggests she’s the second choice at 7/2, Smart Sheets projects her closer to 6-1, but she still ranks third in SIM Speed, third in Total Pace, and owns a respectable 37.1% PAR+, meaning she frequently runs fast enough to compete at this class level. She also shows improvement in her early, middle, and late pace figures, suggesting her recent races are moving in the right direction.

The Concern

She draws the rail, historically the best post, but projects to be only the second-most likely early leader. She’ll likely need another forward move to match the top two simulation horses.

2 – OUTRAGEOUSLY (8-1 ML • 76-1 SIM)

The Case For

OUTRAGEOUSLY lands in Post 2, one of the better historical draws for this distance. She also shows improvement in both her early and middle pace, suggesting there may still be room for development. Horses that improve while drawing favorable inside posts can sometimes outrun expectations.

The Concern

The simulations simply don’t buy it.

A 76-1 SIM Odds line means she won very few of the 1,000 simulated runnings. Her PAR+ (3.2%) is also among the lowest in the field, indicating she rarely produced a performance fast enough to win a race of this caliber.

3 – DISCO EBO (8-1 ML • 9/2 SIM)

The Case For

This is the horse that screams value.

The public is expected to overlook DISCO EBO at 8-1, yet Smart Sheets projects her at 9/2, one of the biggest positive discrepancies in the field.

The supporting evidence is impressive.

• Most likely First Call Leader (28%)
• Second-highest SIM Speed
• Second-highest Total Pace
• Second-highest PAR+ (40.2%)
• Proven back class on the Speed Chart

Everything points toward a horse who belongs at this level and could take advantage of Delaware’s speed-favoring profile if left alone early.

The Concern

Her biggest strength could become his biggest vulnerability.

If multiple horses contest the lead, his advantage diminishes. She’ll need to avoid a taxing pace battle to maximize her chances.

4 – KELLY’S GIRL (12-1 ML • 166-1 SIM)

The Case For

KELLY’S GIRL is one of the more intriguing pace horses in the race.

Her 59.1% C-Zone is the third highest in the field, telling us today’s projected pace closely resembles races where she has previously run her best.

That makes her a horse capable of outrunning her odds if the race develops exactly as projected.

The Concern

Everything else says she’ll have a difficult assignment.

Her 166-1 SIM Odds, 0.0% PAR+, and lower overall pace figures suggest that even when today’s pace fits, she still has to improve significantly to beat this field.

5 – ONYX TEN (10-1 ML • 29-1 SIM)

The Case For

No horse owns a higher C-Zone than ONYX TEN.

At 91.0%, today’s projected pace almost perfectly matches the type of race where she has previously succeeded. She also receives the highest P (Presser) C-Zone, suggesting she’s ideally suited if today’s speed begins to weaken late.

The Concern

Beyond C-Zone, the numbers become much less encouraging.

She ranks well behind the leaders in SIM Speed, Total Pace, and PAR+, making her heavily dependent on the race unfolding exactly as projected.

6 – IRISH MAXIMA (8/5 ML • 6/5 SIM)

The Case For

This is the horse every other runner has to beat.

IRISH MAXIMA is the only class dropper in the field, owns the highest SIM Speed (95.8), the highest PAR+ (52.7%), and the strongest SIM Odds.

She also shows improvement in both early and middle pace, while the Speed Chart gives her the highest ceiling in the race.

Perhaps most importantly, the Morning Line says 8/5, while Smart Sheets projects 6/5, indicating she wins the race more often than the public is likely to price her.

The Concern

She breaks from a historically weaker middle post and projects to be only the fifth-most likely leader early.

If the race becomes a pure speed contest, she’ll need her class edge to overcome the pace.

7 – ICONA MAMA (12-1 ML • 16-1 SIM)

The Case For

ICONA MAMA has quietly improved and owns a respectable 23.1% PAR+. She also ranks well in the projected pace picture and has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance.

The Concern

She doesn’t dominate any major category.

Without a clear pace, class, or simulation advantage, she’ll likely need several of the top contenders to underperform.

8 – MY MAGIC WAND (9/2 ML • 9-1 SIM)

The Case For

MY MAGIC WAND is the pace horse many bettors may overlook.

Her 72.5% C-Zone is second only to ONYX TEN, meaning today’s projected pace closely mirrors races she has already won.

She also owns the best Early Pace figure (95.3) and projects as the third-most likely early leader, while benefiting from an outside post that historically performs slightly better than expected.

The Concern

Despite the pace fit, the simulations remain cautious.

Her 9-1 SIM Odds are double her Morning Line, suggesting she often gets the right setup but doesn’t finish the job against this caliber of field.

Final Thoughts

Every horse in this race tells a different story.

• IRISH MAXIMA is the class horse with the strongest overall profile.
• DISCO EBO is the value horse whose simulations are much stronger than his expected odds.
• ANAKARINA is the improving inside runner with enough pace to stay involved.
• OUTRAGEOUSLY must prove the simulations are wrong.
• KELLY’S GIRL and ONYX TEN rely on today’s pace unfolding exactly as Smart Sheets projects.
• ICONA MAMA needs another forward move.
• MY MAGIC WAND has the pace profile to surprise if she gets comfortable early.

The beauty of Smart Sheets is that it doesn’t force you toward one answer. It lets you see the race from multiple angles—class, pace, simulation, historical profile, and value—so you can decide which story you believe will unfold when the gates open.

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Dashing Beauty Stakes