Delaware Park presents a ten-race card that looks considerably different from the one originally drawn. With races being taken off the turf and moved onto a muddy main track, handicappers must adjust quickly and determine which runners are best equipped to handle the changing conditions.
Cards like this can create uncertainty, but they can also produce some of the day’s best betting opportunities. Surface changes can alter projected pace scenarios, improve the chances of proven mud runners and expose vulnerable favorites whose best form came under completely different conditions.
Momentum is also on Rick’s side after a strong day at Parx Racing, where he connected on three of four Pick 4 tickets and collected more than $1,000 in winnings. Today’s Smart Sheets analysis focuses on quarter-mile positioning, revised race shapes, Total Pace, C-Zone advantages, simulated odds and Profile of a Winner indicators for off-track conditions.
Off the turf and into the mud, today’s edge will come from staying disciplined, identifying horses with proven wet-track ability and recognizing how the surface changes may reshape each race.
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Terry’s Picks
Race 1
3 – McCrakens Ghost – Won 3 races from 4 starts at Delaware; drops in class today; owns the highest speed figure at today’s distance; strong trainer and jockey statistics.
5 – Collection Day – Finished in the money in 5 of the last 6 races, winning 3; strong trainer and jockey statistics.
7 – Torpedo Run – Drops in class today; high-percentage trainer.
Longshot
9 – Cupid’s Dude – Drops in class today; owns the fastest Best Dirt Speed among today’s starters; high-percentage trainer.
Alternates
4 – Final Drama
8 – Broadcaster
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 1 – 1 Mile – Early Speed – Outside In
4 – FINAL DRAMA – Not quite sure how the track will play; brings speed and a standout C-ZONE.
3 – MCCRAKENS GHOST – Ness horse with the most upside and solid previous form over an off track.
5 – COLLECTION DAY – Top Total Pace contender who has also performed well on an off track.
8 – BROADCASTER – Longshot with some upside and better early pace and fraction figures.
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,5,8
Terry’s Picks
Race 2
2 – Rebel’s Heir – Switches to a high-percentage jockey; drops in class today; high-percentage trainer.
6 – Johnny G – Drops in class today; owns the fastest Best Dirt Speed among today’s starters; strong trainer and jockey combination.
3 – Andover Warrior – First-time starter with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Longshot
7 – Uniqueness – Drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey combination.
Alternate
1 – Diminuto Burrito
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 1,3 / 2,5,9
Cost: $48.00
Rick’s Picks
Race 2 – 5 Furlongs – Early Speed – Rail and Posts 4–7 Preferred – No Success from Posts 8+
6 – JOHNNY G – Strong second-race parability against a field made up primarily of “NO” horses and one first-time starter.
3 – ANDOVER WARRIOR – First-time starter against an otherwise weak group; must be considered.
2 – REBEL’S HEIR – Smart Sheets favorite among the experienced runners.
1 – DIMINUTO BURRITO – Showed speed before fading in the debut and may have more stamina today.
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6 / 2,5,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 2,5
Terry’s Picks
Race 3 – Female
7 – Fifth and Chestnut – First-time starter with good breeding and encouraging workouts.
2 – Maximus Princess – Runner-up against tougher company last out; drops in class today; strong jockey statistics.
4 – Good Wishes – First-time starter whose trainer wins 17% with debut Maiden Special Weight runners; strong jockey statistics.
Longshot
3 – Sun Valley – First-time starter with a high-percentage trainer.
Alternate
5 – Urgent Claire
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 3 – Originally 7½ Furlongs on Turf – Off Turf and Projected at 1 Mile – Early Speed – Outside In
7 – FIFTH AND CHESTNUT – First-time starter showing a bullet-and-go workout pattern along with a back bullet.
5 – URGENT CLAIRE – Top-rated first-time starter with a back bullet workout.
2 – MAXIMUS PRINCESS – Offers second-race upside after facing tougher competition.
4 – GOOD WISHES – Rated higher among the first-time starters than the #3.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager.
Terry’s Picks
Race 4
3 – Good as He Gets – Finished third against similar company last out; high-percentage trainer and jockey combination.
1 – Ascendance – Runner-up against similar company last out; owns the highest last-race speed rating.
5 – My Redemption – Runner-up in the last race; high-percentage trainer and jockey combination.
Longshot
7 – Take the Pledge – Trainer wins 18% second start after the claim; owns the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate
6 – Hey Porter
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3 / 2,5,9 / 3,4,6,9 / 3,5,9,10
Cost: $48.00
Rick’s Picks
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Miles – Stalkers – Rail Tough – Posts 2–3 Bonus – Posts 4–7 Discount – Posts 8+ Best
3 – GOOD AS HE GETS – Standout C-ZONE runner and the top Total Pace horse.
7 – TAKE THE PLEDGE – Owns the largest in-race late-speed advantage at 1½ lengths.
4 – IT’S SIZZLING TIME – Projects to be on the lead, is the biggest class dropper and makes his second start of the form cycle.
6 – HEY PORTER – Smart Sheets favorite with solid previous form over an off track.
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6,7 / 2,5 / 2,3,4,9 / 5,9,10
Terry’s Picks
Race 5 – Female
2 – Caravaggio’s Song – Can improve at the shorter distance; strong trainer statistics.
5 – Pippa’s Noncents – Won last out at Delaware; strong trainer and jockey combination.
Longshot
9 – Major Mayhem – Returning to a route may help; strong jockey statistics.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 5 – Originally 1 Mile 70 Yards on Turf – Off Turf
5 – PIPPA’S NONCENTS – TLRSP# +9 with a three-length last-speed advantage; projected pacesetter with a +8 Total Pace edge.
2 – CARAVAGGIO’S SONG – Offers the most upside and makes her third start of the form cycle.
9 – MAJOR MAYHEM – Third choice in a compact three-horse field.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager.
Terry’s Picks
Race 6 – Female
9 – Izzy’s Rock Star – Finished third against similar company last out; strong trainer and jockey combination.
3 – All I Do – Won one of three career starts; high-percentage trainer and jockey combination.
4 – Campaign Mischief – Runner-up against similar company last out; tied for the fastest Best Dirt Speed among today’s starters; high-percentage trainer.
Longshot
6 – Uptown Art – Can improve at the shorter distance; high-percentage trainer.
Alternates
7 – I’m a Lil Wicked
2 – Sweet Summer Love
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 6 – 5½ Furlongs – Early Speed – Rail Weak – Posts 2–7 Best – No Success from Posts 8+
3 – ALL I DO – Gulfstream track dropper and the second-biggest class dropper in the field.
9 – IZZY’S ROCK STAR – Owns a win and a runner-up finish by a neck from two previous starts on an off track.
4 – CAMPAIGN MISCHIEF – Smart Sheets favorite with by far the strongest PAR+ figure.
2 – SWEET SUMMER LOVE – TLRSP# +7, top Total Pace, the most upside and the biggest class drop.
Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3 / 2,4,6,9
Terry’s Picks
Race 7
10 – Hotter Than Dem – Runner-up against similar company last out; high-percentage trainer.
5 – Mack Runs Philly – Highest last-race speed rating; drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey combination.
9 – Pujol – Runner-up against similar company last out; proven at today’s distance.
Longshot
3 – Chuckie Chips – First-time starter with upside.
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,9,10 / 2,3,4 / 2,6,8,9 / 7,10
Cost: $48.00
Rick’s Picks
Race 7 – Originally 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf – Off Turf
5 – MACK RUNS PHILLY – Second-race parability exceeds par by a wide margin and is one of only two “YES” horses.
9 – PUJOL – The other “YES” horse making his third start of the form cycle.
10 – HOTTER THAN DEM – Paco Lopez teams with trainer Jamie Ness, a combination that has been winning at an exceptional rate.
3 – CHUCKIE CHIPS – First-time starter with upside, although this may be a difficult spot.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager.
Terry’s Picks
Race 8
2 – Pride’s Prince – Going for three straight wins; drops in class today; high-percentage trainer and jockey combination.
4 – Re Markably – Won last out; strong trainer and jockey combination.
3 – Speed Boat Beach – Third against tougher company last out; drops in class; owns the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the fastest Best Dirt Speed in the field.
Longshot
5 – Bump N Run – Won last out at Laurel; drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey combination.
Alternates
6 – Sir Wellington
Suggested Wagers
$20 Win: #2 Pride’s Prince
$10 Exacta Box: 2 / 4
$10 Exacta: 2 / 3,4,5
$5 Exacta Box: 2,3,4
Rick’s Picks
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside 3 and Outside 8+
3 – SPEED BOAT BEACH – Projects as the lone early leader, Smart Sheets favorite and one of the highest-upside runners on the card.
2 – PRIDE’S PRINCE – Perfect 2-for-2 at Delaware Park, including a four-length victory over a muddy track. Standout C-ZONE horse.
4 – RE MARKABLY – Two wins from three Delaware starts, stronger in five key Smart Sheets categories and making the second start of the form cycle.
5 – BUMP N RUN – Improved across five categories, earned a career-best figure and has already handled an off track.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager.
Terry’s Picks
Race 9
9 – Cadet Corps – Perfect in the money at Delaware Park, winning half of those starts; also perfect in the money at today’s distance.
6 – Mad Banker – Going for a third consecutive victory; drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey combination.
2 – Magical Ways – Seeks a fourth straight victory for a high-percentage trainer.
Longshot
8 – Margie’s Fun Son – Drops in class today; strong trainer and jockey combination.
Alternates
3 – Hittheroadjak
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 9 – 1 Mile – Early Speed – Outside In
9 – CADET CORPS – Expected to be on or near the lead with the top PAR+ rating (68%) and the highest Total Pace figure.
8 – MARGIE’S FUN SON – Biggest class dropper with the largest race-edge advantage.
2 – MAGICAL WAYS – Smart Sheets favorite along with the #9 and one of only two runners with a PAR+ above 50%.
5 – WHO’S THE KING – Jamie Ness runner dropping in class with plenty of upside.
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager.
Terry’s Picks
Race 10 – Female
10 – Chestertown Jane – Third against tougher company last out; drops in class today; high-percentage trainer and jockey combination.
7 – I’mamaterialgirl – Owns the highest last-race speed rating; drops in class.
5 – Cloud Kisses – Runner-up against similar company last out; early speed should be an advantage.
Longshot
2 – Code Name Maisie – Drops in class today; high-percentage trainer; adds Lasix.
Alternates
1 – Confrontational
4 – Jet Spin
Suggested Wager
No suggested wager from Terry.
Rick’s Picks
Race 10 – 6 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside 3 and Outside 8+
10 – CHESTERTOWN JANE – “YES” horse, Smart Sheets favorite and the lone potential early speed.
7 – I’MAMATERIALGIRL – TLRSP# +5 with a significant class drop.
3 – LEND CREEDENCE – First-time starter against a field with very few “YES” horses. Turf figure for the #4 is discounted due to the surface switch.
2 – CODE NAME MAISIE – Third start of the form cycle with first-time Lasix and potential to rebound.
Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 10 / 2,3,4,7
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Delaware Park – Race 8
#2 – Pride’s Prince
Pride’s Prince comes into today’s feature seeking a third straight victory while dropping in class after two impressive Delaware Park wins. He has already proven he can handle an off track, owns one of the strongest recent speed figures on the card, and has the ideal combination of class, current form and connections. If he reproduces either of his last two efforts, he’ll be tough to deny and is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day.
Good luck, and enjoy today’s racing at Delaware Park!
