It’s Humpday at Delaware Park, with a nice mix of turf and dirt racing and a card that should give us plenty of different handicapping puzzles to solve.
Terry comes into today fresh off a nice Pick 4 hit, and he and Rich are back looking to keep things rolling.
With races switching between the turf and dirt, Smart Sheets can help us identify where the strongest advantages are hiding: SIM Odds versus the Morning Line SIM Speed and last-race speed Early, Mid, Late and Total Pace C-Zone and PAR Projected first-call leaders Surface and race-shape advantages Improvement patterns
Potential overlays and vulnerable favorites It looks like a good racing card rather than one dominated by obvious choices, and those are often the days when finding one or two edges can make all the difference.
Terry has some momentum after that Pick 4.
Now let’s see what Terry, Rich and Smart Sheets can uncover at Delaware. Humpday. Turf and dirt. Let’s find some value.
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Race 1
6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Mostly Fair 1-7, Best 8+
Terry’s Picks
6 – Allaboutjotonight: High % winning trainer; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Well bet in debut.
5 – Uniqueness: Ran 2nd in last race Has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Jack Rabbitness: Top last-race speed rating; drops in class; trainer wins 33% with maiden-to-maiden-claiming moves.
Longshot:
8 – Get the Cheddar: Drops in class today; 22% trainer: Down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
1 – Judge Caprio
Rich’s Picks
3 – JACK RABBITNESS – 2nd Race Parability – lone MSW dropper
5 – UNIQUENESS – only YES horse – Ness horse – money burner btn fav in last 2
4 – THE ANSWER – got to put the lone 1st timer in versus the rest
6 – ALLABOUTJOTONIGHT – Paco – but really more like take your pick of the rest
Race 2 – Female
5 1/2 Furlongs – Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
Terry’s Picks
1 – Where Are You: Won her debut race; Has a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
5 – She’s a Dancer: Won her debut race at Delaware; Has a high-percent winning trainer.
4 – Weaver: Won last race; top trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – It’s the Law Baby: Won last race; top jockey; strong at this distance.
Alternates:
2 – Great Destiny
3 – Sweet Bourbon Tea
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1/3,5,7,10/2,5,9/4,5,6,7 – Cost $24.00
Rich’s Picks
5 – SHE’S A DANCER – strong Debut win 2nd race improvement
1 – WHERE ARE YOU – if you like the 2nd race upside of the 5 – got to like the 1
4 – WEAVER – most upside in the race – only maybe vs all other noes +3 TLRSP#
2 – GREAT DESTINY – on the pace – lone dropper and top C ZONE by plenty
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,5/5,7,8,10/2,4,5,9/6,11
Race 3 – Female
1 Mile 70 Yards – Stalkers/Closers – Rail and 8+ Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Discount
Terry’s Picks
3 – Princess Clemmie: Likes turf and today’s distance; Drops in class today; Can improve at the shorter distance.
5 – Cha Cha Chukka: She has finished in the money in 3 races out of the last 5 starts, winning one of the races; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s.
7 – Classicals Finale: Finished second in her last race; has a high-percentage winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Stella Mars: She likes Delaware Park, finishing in the money in 47% of the races, winning 20% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Alternate:
6 – Never So Lucky
Rich’s Picks
7 – CLASSICALS FINALE – super consistent – top SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE – strong PAR+
10 – STELLA MARS – SIM FAV – Ness – not far from winning last 3 on Delaware turf
5 – CHA CHA CHUKKA – another Ness horse that track and class drops
8 – GOSSIPER – most upside and signs of life in last better EP/F – switches to Paco
Race 4 – Female
6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Mostly Fair 1-7, Best 8+
Terry’s Picks
5 – Poulin: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Heavily Bet in debut; Has a high-percentage winning trainer.
9 – Shark Eyes: First time starter whose Sire wins 23% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters; Has a high-percentage winning jockey.
2 – Sewanee Inn: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Has a high-percentage winner and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Of Course: First time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time Starters; Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 1 stakes winner; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Sky Luna
Rich’s Picks
2 – SEWANEE INN – highest 2nd race Parability
5 – POULIN – almost the same 2nd race Parability as the 2 – was the FAV – work
9 – SHARK EYES – not the top 1ster – back bullet 1ster – maybe outside speed – Paco
4 – CONCORD TOWN – not the highest rated 1ster like the 9 but bullet and go
Race 5 – Female
1 Mile 70 Yards – Stalkers/Closers – Rail and 8+ Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Discount
Terry’s Picks
6 – Will of Victory: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; the shorter distance can help; Highest last race speed rating.
4 – Aibell: Drops in class today; Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Smokeshow: Beaten only 1-length vs similar in last start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Cocoa Mills: Beaten only 2.00 lengths vs similar in last start, finishing 2nd in the previous race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Ruby Hamilton
Rich’s Picks
6 – WILL OF VICTORY – super consistent with a 74% chance to run a par level race
11 – CALL ME TONI – most upside and strong PAR+ and stakes level LP at times
5 – COCOA MILLS – perhaps the most untapped potential in the 3rd career start
7 – SMOKESHOW – Top TOTAL PACE and SIM FAV – boom/bust in first 3rd up
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,6,7,11
Race 6 – Female
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
8 – Ade: Trouble last start effecting her finish finishing in the money in the previous 6 starts; Switches to a high percentage winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Bugged Out: She likes Delaware Park, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 20% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
5 – Lady Arwen: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
4 – Little Crybaby: She has finished in the money in 2 races out of the last 3 starts, winning one of the race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
1 – Recognize Me
3 – Vicountess
Rich’s Picks
5 – LADY ARWEN – TLRSP# +7 – better EP – could regress
2 – BUGGED OUT – standout C ZONE – ITM 5/5 at Delaware and 4/4 at the distance
8 – ADE – most upside in the race – SIM and SP# FAV – biggest dropper
6 – MISSY BOSS – Lone E -should be on the lead and improve in 2nd up
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/2,4,6,8
Race 7 – Female
1 1/16 Miles Turf – No Races at the Distance
Terry’s Picks
6 – El Ma’any: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
9 – Somme River: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4 – World Builder: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Top trainer and jockey win rate.
Longshot:
11 – Queen Wilhelmina: Drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Like a Dream
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: #6 El Ma’any
$5.00 Exacta Box: 6,9
$5.00 Exacta: 6/4,9,11
$5.00 DD: 6/1
Cost: $50.00
Rich’s Picks
11 – QUEEN WILHELMINA – TLRSP# +5 and Top TOTAL PACE +10
9 – SOMME RIVER – standout C ZONE and drops
7 – LADY EMBRACE – super consistent – maybe better in 3rd up – best AVG race on Chart
6 – EL MA’ANY – Paco – will be closing but needs to improve a little to bypass YES horses
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 11/4,6,7,9
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 – #6 El Ma’any
6 – El Ma’any: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20.00 Win: #6 El Ma’any
$5.00 Exacta Box: 6,9
$5.00 Exacta: 6/4,9,11
$5.00 DD: 6/1
Cost: $50.00
Race 8
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair, 8+ Bonus
Terry’s Picks
1 – Undertaker: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – No More Kings: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Where’s Your Boom: Drops in class; has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Kid Mo: Drops in class today; May improve at the longer distance.
Alternates:
4 – Steel Rail Blues
3 – Mister Patapsco
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: #1 Undertaker
$1.00 Exacta Key Box: 1/All
Cost: $30.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – UNDERTAKER – TLRSP# +13 – rerun anything close to that is enough
5 – WHERE’S YOUR BOOM – YES horse – better EP and Early Fractions – Top C ZONE
2 – NO MORE KINGS – going to take lots of money with Paco
6 – KID MO – 2nd Race Parability
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 – #6 El Ma’any
6 – El Ma’any: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Switches to a high % winning jockey; Drops in class today.
