Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
It’s a huge Saturday of racing worldwide, but none are bigger than the Dubia World Cup and that’s where we’ll find Tom and Rich on Foreign Friday!
Meydan Racecourse (Free Dubai Cup Program)
Race 2: Godolphin Mile
Race 3: Dubai Gold Cup
Race 4: Al Quoz Sprint
Race 5: UAE Derby
Race 6: Dubai Golden Shaheen
Race 7: Dubai Turf
Race 8: Dubai Sheema Classic
Race 9: Dubai World Cup
Dubai World Cup Tips and Comments for Meydan Racecourse
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 2
14 – Win Carnelian – PP# 9
Won last out at Tokyo by a head at 1600m. This was a group 3 race.
He tried group 1 company but failed to succeed.
He likes the distance with 9 starts, and 5 wins 1 second.
The overall record is 20 starts, 8 wins 3 seconds.
No dirt races but his sire is a Japan Cup winner (turf) and the line is mainly turf but you do find Danzig and Northern Dancer.
The mare was unraced, and she is by Sunday Silence, that’s a big-time dirt horse.
8 – Isolate – PP# 2
His races at Meydan have been in group 3’s with 2 seconds and those races were at 1200m.
He’s raced once at this distance and ran 3rd.
He won at Saratoga in August and ran second by a nose at Churchill.
The Meydan racecourse races at 1600m come out of a chute and then a turn to the left. Like Churchill or Aqueduct, these 1-turn miles suit sprinters.
The 2-post position will help his chances.
Overall record is 14 starts, 6 wins 4 seconds 2 thirds
2 – Bathrat Leon – PP# 8
He won last out beating Casa Creed in Saudi Arabia by a head on the turf going 6.5 furlongs.
His record on the dirt is three starts, one win one third.
He won this race last year.
He runs well at this level, but many times they have raced him in group 1’s against for of the best: Baaeed, Inspiral, and Shahryar.
He could repeat.
Race 3
9 – Siskany – PP# 5
Last out, won a Group 3 at Meydan easily at 2810m with William Buick aboard as a big favorite.
At Meydan, he is 2 for 2.
His overall record is 16 starts 7 wins 2 seconds 3 thirds and the best races he won were a listed race at Newmarket and the last race.
This is a step up in the company, and at a distance, he never raced before, but with the record Meydan plus the team of Godolphin, Appleby, and Buick, it’s hard to pass on an in-form horse.
7 – Quickthorn – PP# 12
Last year, off the layoff, he ran 2nd in a class 1 race at Nottingham and lost to Trueshan.
He won 3 in a row including the Group 2 race at Longchamp.
Then he ran into Kyprios and Trueshan again, he went off form and ran 6th and 5th in those races.
He’s run the distance before with a record of 4 starts 2 wins 1 second.
We know he can win off a layoff and gets Olsin Murphy in the saddle.
He should make a good account of himself in the very competitive race.
11 – Trawlerman – PP# 10
Not a great effort last out in Sandi Arabia in group 3 coming into this race off a layoff and he was the favorite.
Lost to Trueshan going two miles running 3rd.
A winner 2800m race at York in a field of 20 and he drew the 20 post position.
A lightly raced 5yo with only 11 starts 4 wins 3 thirds. Good on the all-weather with 3 starts 1 win 2 thirds.
The last race was too bad to believe, let’s see what he can do here.
Race 4
1 – Al Suhail – PP# 2
He Won the last 2 at Meydan at 1400m nicely.
He Ran 3rd behind Kinross at Doncaster and made a poor effort vs. Rohaan before being shipped to Dubai.
My one issue is running at 1200m because he has been more of a 1400m horse, but they must see something to suggest this is the place to go.
Godolphin, Appleby, Buick
16 – Al Dasim – PP# 8
My top horse is running at 1400m, which has been unbeatable at 1200m going 4 for 4.
He has won his last 5 races with 2 at Meydan and 3 at Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
His times have been respectable, and he’s winning by 2 lengths or more.
The one to beat and he is a 3yo facing older horses.
12 – The Astrologist – PP# 6
This horse has been up against the best in Australia and runs pretty well overall.
20 starts at this distance with 4 wins 2 seconds and 6 thirds.
He last ran at Flemington and ran 6th and lost by two lengths.
Like today’s race, Flemington is also a straight course for 1200m.
In this field, he looks like one who can run in the money.
Race 5
6 – Dura Erede – PP# 8
Interesting horse, only a maiden win on dirt, and that were his start on the dirt at Sapporo.
Wins a group 1 at Tokyo on the turf going 2000m by a nose breaking from post 11.
If his top-class win on the turf translation to the higher end on the dirt, this is the one to beat.
5 starts 2 wins 1 second.
5 – Derma Sotogake – PP# 1
Nothing on the turf in 2 starts but a winner of 3 out of 5 on the dirt.
And he ran 3rd in the other 2 races.
In his last race in Saudi Arabia, he ran 3rd with some issues but I don’t think he could have been the winner.
To date, his longest distance win is 1800m, but his group 3 win was at 1600m
He’s by Mind Your Biscuits so being a good dirt runner makes sense.
3 – Cairo – PP# 5
He’s won on the all-weather and turf, but no dirt starts. So why is he in this race?
Well, he’s by Quality Road who was a very good dirt runner winning the Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth, Amsterdam, Donn, Woodward, Met Mile, etc, I think you can see my point. The stud fee is $200,000.
He has also been good on the turf, with three starts, 2 wins 1 second.
I don’t think Aiden O’Brien would place a horse like this in a race on the dirt without some thought and this is a point race for the Kentucky Derby. Win, and he gets a starting position.
One to see where the betting goes on this one.
I left the non-winner Baffert horse out of the money, most likely a mistake.
Race 6
6 – Lemon Pop – PP# 6
The last out win a Group 1 race at 1600m on the dirt at Tokyo.
In his last 5 races, he’s won 4 and ran second in the other race.
Overall record, 11 starts, 8 wins, 3 seconds.
Here’s the kicker, he has never run at 1200m, but he’s won at 1300m.
He is fast, and I think the one to beat after the break-thought win last out.
He may be a Japanese-based runner, but he was purchased at Keeneland sales for $70,000 and is owned by Godolphin.
13 – Switzerland – PP# 2
He won his last start at Meydan without much overall effort.
This was off a layoff since running and winning at Meydan last year in this same race over a Red Le Zele.
28 starts 9 wins 3 seconds 4 thirds on all different surfaces and was formerly trained by Aiden O’Brien.
He’s 9yo and appears to not have lost a step in form.
This was the target for this year too.
2 – Gunite – PP# 13
After winning at Oaklawn, Steve Asmussen took him to Saudi Arabia where he ran 2nd to Elite Power, the Breeder’s Cup Sprint winner.
15 starts, 7 wins 5 seconds 1 third.
Ultra-consistently lately and running the best of this racing life.
I can’t leave him out.
Race 7
6 – Junko – PP# 8
He Won the last race at Chantilly on the all-weather as his prep.
His been in the money in all of his races.
7 Starts 4 wins 2 seconds 1 third.
Most of these races are in group company in France.
Unlike some other horses in this race, he is not changing the running distance of this race. Some adding distance who are contenders.
Andre Fabre and top France jockey Maxime Guyon will pilot this horse to victory.
3 – Do Deuce – PP# 13
A winner at Hanshin last time out after not-so-good results in his campaign in France, 2 races. The ARC run didn’t suit him at all.
He won group 1 before going to France.
9 starts five wins 1 second 1 third.
This is an interesting placement for the horse because they could have run him in the next race and will have to do some work with the post position.
Off the last race, I can’t leave him out.
7 – Lord North – PP# 3
He won his prep at Lingfield on the all-weather by over three lengths.
Won this race last year it was a dead heat, and then ran three races in a top company running very average efforts.
He has won this race 2 times, and John Gosden fears the Japanese horses in this race as he discussed in a recent interview.
The prep was good, so let’s see if he can do it again.
Race 8
3 – Rebel’s Romance – PP# 10
He won the Breeder’s Cup Turf last time out and hasn’t lost in a long time, with his campaign starting in Germany and England last season.
2400m is his distance, with a record of 5 starts and 5 wins.
My concern is, has he peaked? We have seen this before with top Godolphin horses who don’t retain that form from season to season.
If he’s ready, he is the best horse right now in the field based on his past performance and should be the favorite.
2 – Mostahdaf – PP# 8
He Won the last race in Saudi Arabia by 7 lengths for his first start on the dirt.
John Gosden knew something because why enter a good turf horse on the dirt? He’s done this before with Mishriff (he won both the Saudi race and the Dubai world cup)
If you toss out the ARC race, he’s run very well. Undefeated on the all-weather with three wins. Undefeated on the dirt with one win.
The turf 9 starts four wins 2 seconds is good and in top company.
He has also run some disappointing races in England (toss the ARC, the heavy ground didn’t suit many of the horses in that race)
I can’t leave him off my ticket in this race.
10 – Win Marilyn – PP# 4
She comes into this race off a win at Sha-Tin at 2400m.
In the prior races, she ran 2nd in Group 1 at Hanshin breaking from the 13-post position running 2200m.
17 starts, 6 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third.
She has been steadily improving over the past three races.
She is a multi-group winner against the males.
Race 9
14 – Ushba Tesoro – PP# 8
Won his last four races in Japan and has six starts, 5 wins, and one-third on the dirt.
His dirt loss was 1800m, and his wins are 2000m or more.
He also has done well on the turf with 21 starts, 3 wins, 1 second 4 thirds.
So, his turn tiger on the dirt and flying along here.
He prepped in this race at Kawasaki with a nice win at 2100m by ½ length.
Here’s a horse in top form. It’s hard for me to see him losing here.
8 – Jun Light Bolt – PP# 3
I don’t know what happened in the last race in Saudi Arabia, but it was one of his worst races ever.
He came into the race off a three-race-winning streak in listed to group 3 to group 1 company.
It’s only in the past year that this horse has improved and that was because he now runs only on the dirt.
He has 26 starts and won on both turf and dirt.
At this distance, he’s finished third two times in 2 races.
13 – T O Keynes – PP# 6
He ran 2nd last out at Kawasaki going 2100m and wasn’t far beaten.
He ran 4th in group 1 the race before and picked it up at the end.
In the 3rd race back, he won win ease.
21 starts 10 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds and all these were on the dirt.
He’s in form over the last five races winning 2 of them.
At this distance, 4 starts 2 wins.
I see this one going off at a price.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: Dubai Kahayla Classic
#1 RB RICH LYKE ME – it’s obvious
Race 2: Godolphin Mile
#4 – Discovery Island – much improved last out and could be better in R2 off the bench
#14 – Win Carnelian – distance 9/5-1-0, dirt is the question
#8 – Isolate – a pair of 2nds since going to Meydan – stretching out today could help
#13 – Royal Mews – tough call over the favorite #2 Bathrat Leon, should be better in 3rd off the bench and last race was better than it looks
Race 3: Dubai Gold Cup
#13 – Ardakan – love the comments in last two, ran very well final 200 – going to need late legs here
#9 – Siskany – Appleby and Buick, what more do you need
#4 – Get Shirty – snatched third in last and the extra distance today could help
Race 4: Al Quoz Sprint
#1 – Al Suhail – been winning easy in last two, maybe better in 2nd off the bench
#5 – Flaming Rib – ran one of his best races last out, repeat effort could get it done here
#16 – Al Dasim – won three in a row, four of four at the distance, going to be the favorite
#11 – Sight Success – won more than $2 million at the distance
Race 5: UAE Derby
#3 – Cairo – a head from winning 4 of 5 races and will go by late as the extra distance is to his benefit
#6 – Dura Erede – owner/trainers think they have got something here, took 3 races to break maiden, went to group 2 in 4th start – finished second and then straight to a G1 win – they could be right
#5 -Dermo Sotogake – decent effort in the Saudi Derby and expecting more in the 2nd after a layoff
#11 – Perriere – a length from being undefeated, love the comment “rushed to the wire” extra distance helps here too
Race 6: Dubai Golden Shaheen
#5 – Lemon Pop – pounding the comp in G1 in Japan, this guy is legit
# 2 – Gunite – the BC finish of 4th – losing to Cody’s Wish and Cyberknife, OK, but Slow Down Andy – not so much
#13 – Switzerland – has a G1 win, the thing is, when he loses, he loses to horses that come back and win again
#7 – Red Le Zele – no shame in losing to Lemon Pop and Switzerland in two of last 4, was the favorite in the lone off the board outing
Race 7: Dubai Turf
#11 – Real World – Ozzy Osbourne shot in the dark here, was the closest to Baaeed prior to going on the shelf for almost a year – we’ll excuse that last one and expect a rebound in form
#12 – Serifos – when he loses, it’s not by much and usually to a tier one horse
#9 – Nations Pride – William Buick gets off Master of the Seas to stay here, both Godolphin/Appleby – you have to think he had a choice
Race 8: Dubai Sheema Classic
#7 – Equinox – 2 losses in his 6 race career , one by a length the other by a neck
#3 – Rebel’s Romance – hard to argue against a horse that has won 5 in a row, six of eight in four different countries
#10 – Win Marilyn – found his form including the G1 Hong Kong Vase in an easy win last out
#2 – Mostahdaf – this guy is all over the place, boom or bust type, most of the booms came with Jim Crowley riding – he rides today
Race 9: Dubai World Cup
#3 – Café Pharoah – was closing ground for 3rd in the Saudi Cup and gets more distance today
#4 – Country Grammer – defending champ, maybe improves in 2nd start after a layoff
#9 – Panthalassa – just beat Country Grammar in in the Saudi Cup – going 1/8 mile longer makes it a more difficult task today
#1 – Algiers – been straight crushing the competition in the last two, but this is a major step up
