Ellis Park Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Ellis Park Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Ellis Park – 8-05-2024
Race 1-Female
5 – Byzantine – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Grace Given – She won her last race at Ellis Park, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Ella Frances – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Beautiful Mandate – She won her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Tamara’s Way
2 – Missy Bee
Race 2-Female
7 – Grand Prairie Gal – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Streets of Paris – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when he drops a horse off a claim, can improve at the longer distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Oh Macarena – She drops in class today; she has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
2 – Vino Veloce – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – American Splendor
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,6,7/1,5,11/1,7/1,4,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
11 – Where’s the Wine – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, she has high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the races in the 2nd grass race a horse runs and she has high % winning jockey.
5 – Don’t Say It – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, she has high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when using 1st time Lasix and she has high % winning jockey.
1 – Hi’iaka – She has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Go Purple – She is a first–time starter, she has a high % winning trainer and she has a bullet 4F workout on Jul-29.
Race 4
7 – God of Wine – He has finished in the money in five out of his last seven races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Gametime Gladiator – He has been knocking at the door finishing in the money in his last three races and increasing his speed rating in the last four starts, he has a high % winning jockey and the rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
3 – Dr Kringle – He drops in class today, and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Schifty’s Haloid – He has finished in the money in his last four races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Interlock Empire
5 – Forge in Fire
Bet: $10.00 Win & $14.00 Place: # 7
Race 5
6 – Abbi Fede – He is a first–time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 3F workout on Jul-26.
1 – Hedge – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Gallo de Fuego – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days has won two races out four starts and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
5 – Dixie Devil – He is a first–time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Bourbonator
9 – Remaining Nameless
Race 6
12 – Courageous Clay – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-25.
9 – Minaret Station – He is a first–time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the maiden Sp Wt races he has an entry in, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-29.
5 – Giocoso – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating, he has high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse in and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Homer’s Odyssey – He switches to a high % winning jockey and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – American Vision
$.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,9,12/1,6,8,10,11/6,7,8,9/4 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
8 – Zandvoort – He is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and his breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
10 – Big Much – He is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a good 5F workout on Jul-25.
1 – Tuxedo Park – He drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on Jul-26.
Longshot:
6 – Correlation – He is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 33% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
11 – Hasty Flyer
Race 8-Female
8 – Ms Quality Control – She has finished in the money in her last six races, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Divine – She has finished in the money in three out of her four career races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Agra – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Quietly – She has one win out of two starts on the turf and at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
10 – Claret Beret
Race 9
4 – Demolition Duke – He finished in the money in four out of four starts on the turf, running 2nd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today, he has a trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-Sprint and he has high % winning jockey.
1 – Committee of One – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has the best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
11 – Finster – He won his debut race; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix & blinkers are added.
Longshot:
8 – Texas Town – With an early foot the shorter distance should help, drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when shipping a horse in to run and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-27.
Alternate:
10 – Arabian Prince
5 – Backside Buzz
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing –4th Race
7 – God of Wine
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
3 – GRACE GIVEN – better ATB in last and a weight break
4 – ELLA FRANCES – first off the sidelines with a solid first up record and decent works
6 – BEAUTIFUL MANDATE – first start at Ellis – solid works prepping
1 – TAMARA’S WAY – dropping in class and was better ATB in last
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
7 – GRAND PRAIRIE GAL – upped speed figure in last three
6 – STREETS OF PARIS – class dropper – barely profitable if she wins – somewhat concerning
5 – AMERICAN SPLENDOR – getting better race by race maybe sitting on a career best race
3 – OH MACARENA – drops in class, if she can run back to March 9th race
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf: Tactical Speed, 1/15 w2w – PP: Rail Big Penalty, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Hit Too
5 – DON’T SAY IT – Speed, first Lasix, TLRSP# as a 3 YO
8 – MIYAKO – getting better race to race – going to close – needs a better start
4 – GO PURPLE – some really good works prepping – turf is the only question
1 – HI’IAKA – ran her best race in debut – maybe one of those horses that run their best after a rest
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, 22% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
7 – GOD OF WINE – faster fractions, just missing at this level last out
4 – CAWKAB – lowest level of his career, might have the most upside in 2nd start after more than a year off
3 – DR KRINGLE – class dropper that held his speed longer last out
1 – GAMETIME GLADIATOR – strong rail and good chance to be better in the third off the sidelines
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed. 2/8 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Discount Inside Better than Outside
Anything goes here
6 – ABBI FEDE – the July 5th and 12th works show plenty of talent and potential
1 – HEDGE – 2nd race improvement would be enough provided none of the 1st timers are pretty good
10 – NOBLE SOUL -not a fan of the post, but the works, training and breeding are almost there 2.7
12 – KERNER – solid works, decent breeding and weight break
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 6 Races, Stalkers, 1/6 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
4 – AMERICAN VISION – 3/3 first timer for trainer Brad Cox
12 – COURAGEOUS CLAY – 2nd race improvement would be enough
1 – HOMER’S ODYSSEY – same story here, rail bonus
5 – GIOCOSO – beat the 1 and 12 last out, but those might have more upside
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 6 Races, Early Speed, 3/6 2w2 – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fairish, 4-7 Hit, 8+ Best
10 – BIG MUCH – 3/3 first timer – strong works, breeding and trainer numbers
8 – ZANDVOORT – 3/3 first timer too – lower odds than the 10 – weight break
6 – CORRELATION – July 5th ,12th and June 28th works are strong – indicating talent is there
1 – TUXEDO PARK – a run back to his debut is more than good enough – tried a 250K NGSTK in last
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 24% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Underperform. 8+ Similar to Rail Bonus
10 – CLARET BERET – upped speed figure in last three
7 – AGRA – another that upped her speed figure in the last three – probably been facing the toughest
6 – DIVINE – won huge in last – AW record says first run in grass should be OK
9 – QUIETLY – bounce back race coming in third career start after winning despite dipping in last?
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf: Tactical Speed, 1/15 w2w – PP: Rail Big Penalty, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Hit Too
4 – DEMOLITION DUKE – TLRSP# and drops in class – only question is the distance as a closer
1 – COMMITTEE OF ONE – Drops from a 125K NGSTK, plenty of back class, rail stinks
5 – BACKSIDE BUZZ – first on grass – but the off track record says no problem
3 – GLACIAL POWER– increased sp# in every race with best race ever in 2nd turf try last out
