Ellis ParkHorse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Ellis Park Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Ellis Park – 7-28-25
Race 1–
5 – Props – He closed to run 3rd vs similar (on Turf) at 5-1/2f in his last race and now stretches out to, and he has a high % winning jockey
2 – Honey Dutch – He finished 6th in the Sanford-G3 stakes after stumbling and being bumped at the start, he drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Chuck’s Law – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Just Asap – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 31% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Sparkling Speed
1 – Avery Place
Race 2 –
4 – Air of Defiance – He won his last race at Ellis Park, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Interlock Empire – He finished 4th in his last race at Ellis Park after experiencing problems, and he has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Cascade Cruiser – Linda Rice claimed Cascade Cruiser and now owns and trains Cascade Cruiser and Linda Rice wins 41% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim.
Longshot:
5 – King Peanut – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Sound of Victory
7 – Infinite Luck
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,7,8/2,3,4,8/3,5/8,9 – Cost $48.00
Race -3
4 – Indy Charges On – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and his early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will help.
8 – Brave Blend – He tried the turf in his last race without much success and can improve while returning to dirt and has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races in the 1st after race after claiming a horse.
2 – Oliverio – He won his last race at Thistledown, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Guardian – He has a high % winning jockey and drops in class.
Alternate:
6 – Pierce Elevated
Race 4 –
3 – Litigation – He won his last race at Ellis Park on the turf at today’s distance so only needs to repeat that race, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Troubleshooting – He has won two races out of the last four starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Star’s Image – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the races in the 3rd start off a layoff, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Hoff – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Taylor’s Version
6 – Shan
Bet: $20.00 Win & $20.00 Place: 3 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 3,5 – $10.00 – Exacta: 3/1,2,5,7
Race 5-Female
8 – Dark Fury – She has finished 2nd in her last two races, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races she has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Ride the Broom – She tried turf did not finish well and now returns to the dirt where she won her last race on that surface, and the shorter distance will help.
2 – Indescriptable – She finished 3rd in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Musical Prayer – Her early speed running style helps her chances, her best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and she has a high % winning trainer.
Race 6–
7 – So Special – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Da Prince Is Right – He closed to finished 5th on the turf at 5f in his last race and stretches out to 1-1/16M, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Strong – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Moderator – He switches to a high % jockey, he has a high % winning trainer and he has a good 5F workout on Jul-26.
Alternate:
8 – Bedeviled
$.50 Pick 4: 1,7,9/4,10/7,9,11,12/1,3,6,12 – Cost $48.00
Race 7-Female
10 – Shared Vision – She won her debut race at Churchill Downs, she has a high % winning trainer and Lasix is added.
4 – Velvet Devil – She finished in the money in all three career starts, winning her last start, and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Mega Mil – She finished in the money in both career races, winning her last start, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Shezalittlestinker – She won her last race at Ellis Park and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Abitibi
5 – Pretty Sure
Race 8-Female`
11 – Winning Streep – She finished in the money in three of her last six starts, winning one of the races, running 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Meg’s a Star – She came in from Ireland after winning her debut race to try the USA races, she has been steadily working out to make her USA debut, her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning trainer.
9 – Hay Stack – She has done well on the turf in the past finishing in the money in 44% of the races on the turf, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Humbled– She won her last race at Ellis Park on the turf and at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
13 – Missy Bee
10 – Birkin Girl
Race 9-Female
3 – Tempting Eve – She finished in the money in six races out of eight career starts, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Theatrix – She finished 3rd in her last race, her turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a bullet 5F workout on Jul-27.
12 – Bois Blanc – She finished 2nd in her last race, her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Volatile Nite – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Texas Queen
2 – Tickin Time Blonde
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 4th Race – #3 – Litigation
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 1/4 2w2 – PP: All from 4-7
6 – JUST ASAP – 3/3 Horse with a bunch of fast works
3 – CHUCK’S LAW – Tyler G – Back Bullet July 5 – 4f 47.3
5 – PROPS – YES horse with more upside in second start
4 – EL CHAVO – back bullet 4f 47.2 on Jun 20
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,5,6
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
4 – AIR OF DEFIANCE – crushed the comp in last race – Z pattern
8 – SOUND OF VICTORY – 3rd after a layoff – better MID and LP – Top TOTAL PACE and +5 LP
1 – INTERLOCK EMPIRE – highly consistent performer – SIM FAV but rail stinks
3 – CASCADE CRUISER – YES Horse, strong C ZONE and top jockey – Tyler G
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,8/3,4,6,8/3,5/2,8,9
$20 Win: 4
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/1,3,8
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
4 – INDY CHARGES ON – TLRSP#+3 – class dropper – like that combo
3 – GUARDIAN – SIM FAV – only horse with better EP and Fractions
6 – PIERCE ELEVATED – Top TOTAL PACE +10 – Strong C ZONE – bullet work between
8 – BRAVE BLEND – only YES Horse and got to have him
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 3/11 w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – LITIGATION – TLRSP# +5 – SIM FAV – decent C ZONE – upped SP in 3 since debut – makes the 3rd start in a row for the first time
5 – TROUBLESHOOTING – consistent performer – Top TOTAL PACE
2 – STAR’S IMAGE – could be out front and 3rd up for the first time – boom or bust
7 – TAYLOR’S VERSION – maybe the most untapped potential in just 3rd career start
$10 Win: 3
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ None
8 – DARK FURY – maybe the most consistent in the race – decent work between
2 – INDESCRIPTABLE – popped in last – better ATB – rarely makes 2 starts in a row – popped in the only other 2nd up
9 – RIDE THE BROOM – should compete for the lead – going back to June 4 race on dirt could be good enough
6 – ARMY GIRL – a little flyer here – Top C ZONE – would be especially dangerous on the lead and best published 4f work between races
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Closers, 2/8 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
Mostly 2nd time starts – ranked mostly in order of 2nd race parability
7 – SO SPECIAL – 88 – just missed and well bet in debut
9 – DA PRINCE IS RIGHT – 85 and SIM FAV
6 – MODERATOR – 82 – Tyler G with a bunch of strong works
1 – STRONG – 3rd start but enough ES that could go w2w on right fractions
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7,9/4,5,10/1,4,10,11/2,3
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Outside In
4 – VELVET DEVIL – one of two YES horses – SIM FAV & Top TOTAL PACE
5 – PRETTY SURE – has probably faced much better – 2nd up after nearly a year off
10 – SHARED VISION – speed, 1st Lasix and 2nd race improvement and you might have a burner here
7 – FOIE GRAS – the other YES horse and 3rd up for the first time with most back class
$16 Win: 4
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Closers, 21% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount
1 – EXPATRIATE – very consistent – Tyler G – rail discount – Top PAR+
11 – WINNING STREEP – 1st Lasix in 2nd up – should improve off of last
10 – BIRKIN GIRL – SIM FAV that usually comes off the bench ready
4 – NEW ROME – won 3/5 at the distance and 6/9 on grass – wins w2w and will lead today
Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 3/11 w2w – PP: Rail Best, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – TEMPTING EVE – lots of speed, held it longer in last
2 – TICKIN TIME BLONDE – Top PAR+ with strong C ZONE
8 – SENORA D’ORO – risking it with a pair of first timers
6 – VOLATILE NITE
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,6,8
