Ellis Park Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Ellis Park on a $100 Budget
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Ellis Park Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Requestforproposal – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races in the 2nd start with the trainer, she has a high % winning jockey, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Goldcrest – She switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 5-0-2), she has the highest last race speed rating, and her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 2 Turf winners.
1 – Take It South – She has finished in the money in two out of four races on the turf and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Mrs. Speaker – She drops-in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Little Gia
2 – Dee Dee B
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,7,10/1,2,3
Race 2
2 – Sapphire Nights – She ran 5th as the favorite in her last race but has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Ready for Trouble – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 7 winners from 7 starters and 2 stakes winners, and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Gone With the Wyn – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner and has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the starts in maiden claiming races.
Longshot:
4 – Wreck It Ruby – She drops in class today and has a decent 4f workout on July 23.
Alternate:
5 – Tonic and Gin
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race #2 – 3rd race #1,3,6- 4th race #2,4,7 – 5th #3,4,5,10 – $10.00 Win: #2
Race 3
6 – Bella Cruella – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and today’s sprint distance, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet workout on July 12th.
3 – Princess Mitole – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, may do well while trying grass and has a good 5F workout on July-22.
1 – Standoutsensation – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on July-21.
Longshot:
4 – Bikini Bottom – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-0).
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,6/1,3,6/1,3,4,6
Race 4
2 – Shell Shock – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 27% of the starts in claiming races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
7 – Lamasco – She finished 3rd in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Sonador – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Rock the Nile – She has won two out of the last four starts, finishing 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 2,4,7/2,4,7/1,2,4,7
Race 5
10 – Song of Norway – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she is trained by Wesley Ward.
4 – Pinotslilgirl – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last two races, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and she can improve with blinkers added today.
3 – Joke Master – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner, and she has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 5-0-2).
Longshot:
5 – Candy Landy – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a decent 4f workout on July 23.
Alternate:
1 – Sotona
8 – Saltwater Taffy
Bet: $3.00 Turf Pick 3: 4,10/3,4,8/3
Race 6
5 – Ruby Tap – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and is trained by Steven Asmussen.
9 – Fiesta Besta – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the starts in sprint races and has a good 4F workout on July-22.
10 – Port Townsend – She has a high % winning trainer and has a good 4F workout on July-21.
Longshot:
12 – Flashy Lass – She is a first-time starter who, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has won four out of five races.
Alternate:
6 – Hockaday Girl
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th #5,6,9,10,12 – 7th race # 3,4,5,8 – 8th race # 2,7 – 9th # 3
Race 7
8 – Pelican Lane – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today has a high % winning jockey and has a good a 4F workout July-21.
3 – Letter of Gol – She can improve with Lasix & blinkers added.
4 – Theroanrunner – She drops in class today her Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and a trainer wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from dirt to turf.
Longshot:
5 – Sun Valley Road – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer, she may do well while trying grass as her Dam has 4 winners from 8 starters and 1 Turf winner and a trainer in the last 14 days horses have six wins out of nine starts.
Bet: None
Race 8
4 – American Retro – She has won her last race at Churchill, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 Yes Day – She finished 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Ervadean – She drops in class today.
Longshot:
1 – Miss Arlington – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and the rail post is winning at a 29% clip.
Alternate:
8 – Jokes On Blue
Bet: None
Race 9
3 – Grand Aspen – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout on July-21.
8 – Surface to Air – He ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in his last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Qualified – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Archie the Giza – He drops in class today; has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
5 – Crossing
Bet: $3.00 Exacta: 3/8-$10.00 Win # 3
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 4 Races 1 w2w – yesterday the rest Stalkers/Closers – 2 winner 2/3, and 1 from 4-7 & 8+
10 – GOLDCREST – TLRSP#, drops from MSW – tied with #3 for best turf pedigree
1 – TAKE IT SOUTH -class dropper – slightly better ATB in her last
3 – LITTLE GIA – owner/trainer the same – tie top pedigree – closed last time on 2nd on grass, going longer today could be the difference on the small drop
7 – REQUESTFORPROPOSAL – ran a little better fractions last out and should be better 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,10/1,3/1,3,5,7,10
Race 2: 5 Furlongs – Bias: 3 Races – Early Speed, 1 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 1 from 2/3, 1 from 4-7 & 8+
2 – SAPPHIRE NIGHTS – not so sure should be 1 to 1 after regressing in last two, but fractions were a touch faster at 5 ½ v 5f – cutback helps
7 – AUTISM COMPASSION – we saw a horse with good works at TP demolish a field in his debut yesterday, maybe the same with this one?
3 – READY FOR TROUBLE – decent works and schedule getting prepped
1 – GONE WITH THE WYN – OK works getting ready that improved the closer she got to post time
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,7/1,2,6/2,7/5,8,10
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 50/50 – 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 A Little Under Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Big Drop
6 – BELLA CRUELLA – bullet and go and most other works are solid too
2 – PRAY FOR CHAMPAGNE – very consistent work pattern and probably best collection of works
1 – STANDOUTSENSATION – rides the hot rail and is another with solid training prior to debut
4 – BIKINI BOTTOM – first timer – with decent works getting prepped
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6/2,6/1,2,4,6,10
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 5 Races – 40% w2w – PP: None from Rail, One from 2/3, Bonus 4-7, None from 8+
2 – SHELL SHOCK – down in class,3rd up and should look like the first two
7 – LAMASCO – TLRSP# – consistent performer – two maintenance works between
5 – SUNDAY GRACE – last race looks a mess on paper, but internals were better from start to finish
4 – SONADOR – SIM overlay – Better ATB in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,7/2,5,7/2,3,4,5,7
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 50/50 – 27% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 A Little Under Par, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Big Drop
10 – SONG OF NORWAY – don’t like the post, but Wesley Ward usually has his babies break sharp and are ready for races like this
5 – CANDY LANDY – strong turf breeding with good, scheduled works
8 – SALTWATER TAFFY – going to take a shot here, was well bet in debut, maybe a little freaked out by crowded start, being brushed in debut – had by far best works before debut – cleaner start the difference?
4 – PINOTSLILGIRL – TLRSP# – has plenty to EP, first on grass is a question
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,8,10/5,10/3,4,5,8,10
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and 8+ Bias, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair
9 – FIESTA BESTA – bullet and go, but almost all works are fast
5 – RUBY TAP – improved plenty enough in 2nd career start, same improvement here would be good enough
12 – FLASHY LASS – Brad Cox trainee – good works and solid breeding
11 – MUSICAL MISCHIEF – another flyer, decently bet in debut, flashed the most EP, folded, works have been blazing since, including 2 bullets and one at 5f
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,9,11,12/1,8/1,2,4/3,8,9
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 4 Races 1 w2w – yesterday the rest Stalkers/Closers – 2 winner 2/3, and 1 from 4-7 & 8+
8 – PELICAN LANE – going long for first time in 3rd start after a layoff, better early and late in last
1 – MIDVALE – Z-Pattern in last way back in October, blistering work in last Kee 4f in 46.2 – 1st Lasix helps here
4 – THEROANRUNNER – way better ATB in last, two maintenance works between race and hope for more in 2nd up and 1st on grass
13 – CATHERINE BLAZE – another flyer today, Z pattern in last with strong early and late race betterment
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,8/1,8/1,3,4,8,13
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and 8+ Bias, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair
4 – AMERICAN RETRO – consistent high quality starts in first three, coming off MSW win in June, 25f good works since
2 – YES DAY – lots of speed upfront, flew late in last and first at Ellis Park, not sure cut back in distance helps
1 – MISS ARLINGTON – rides hot rail, can make huge mid-moves, much better fractions last out
8 – JOKES ON BLUE – better late with stronger fractions in 1st up, regressed in only 2nd start
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,4/2,4/1,2,4,5,8
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races, Closers in all 3 – PP: 2 wins from Rail and the other 4-7
3- GRAND ASPEN – just missed in last – Chris P angle – fast work between races
8 – SURFACE TO AIR – TLRSP# – down in class, probably best performer so far for this bunch
9 – ARCHIE THE GIZA – well bet in last, should be rolling late, some of his best works between starts
6 – QUALIFIED – improved plenty after switching form dirt to turf, breeding is there
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,8,9/3,8/3,5,6,8,9
