Ellis ParkHorse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Ellis Park Picks
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Terry’s Picks:
Ellis Park – 8-11-25
Race 1-Female
1 – Red Hot Jeanie – She drops in class today, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Travaille – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she can handle the distance.
2 – Coastline Hottie – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Stealthespotlight – She has finished in the money in her last three races finishing 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the sprint races she has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Onmywaytosavthday
6 – Mabee Luckynwild
Race 2 -Female
3 – Mendela – She won her last race at Ellis Park, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races with a horse competing in a race after winning the previous race, her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Multiplication – She has won two races out of her last three starts, finishing 2nd in her last start, and the shorter distance will help and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
2 – Ninth Island – She has won three races out of her six career starts, drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Wandering Kirby – She has won two races out of her last three starts, finishing 3rd in her last start, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 1st after race claiming a horse and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Favor to You
4 – Mascara
$.50 Pick 4: 3/1,2,6,8,10/6,8,9,10,11,12/2,3,9 – Cost $45.00
Race 3-Female
2 – Starlit Nite – She is a first-time starter, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-05.
10 – Wanna Go Home – She ran 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and stretching out to 6F will be a plus.
1 – Light My Flame – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Blazing Freedom – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Blazing Freedom
6 – Run Mama Run
Race 4 –
6 – La Norme de Jour – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start and he has high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Aug-04.
11 – Direct Strike – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Petoskey Stones – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
12 – Equator – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in his only start, can improve while trying dirt and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Yorquick
10 – Alpyland
13 – Your Wildest Dream
Race 5-Female
9 – Hot Mash – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 3F workout on Aug-06.
2 – Windy Houston – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Daphne Blue – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Carl’s Fault – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 6-Female
7 – Commanded – She has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and she has a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 1st time a horse runs after being claimed.
3 – True Passion – She ran 2nd in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Kentucky Smokeshow – She won her last race, her early speed running style helps her chances and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-31.
Longshot:
2 – Wonder of You – She won her last race, her early speed running style helps her chances and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Miss Elle
1 – Mom’s Cheesecake
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,7/4,7,10/4,7/2,5,6,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7–
4 – Frosty Beer – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Sandborn – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey, Lasix is added and he has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-02.
10 – Bon Temps – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in his last race and drops in class today
Longshot:
13 – Steel Venom – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey
Race 8-–
4 – El Magnifico – He comes in from Churchill Downs after winning four races in a row, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – D’oro Unbridled – He has finished in the money in four races out of his last five starts, winning two races and he can go the distance.
5 – King Russell – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Unload – He has won one race out of two starts at Ellis Park, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Carolo Rapido
1 – Imperial Gun
Bet: $20.00 Win & $20.00 Place: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/7 – $10.00 – Exacta: 4/2,3,4,5
Race 9–
11 – Vivaldi – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has high % winning jockey.
5 – Mr Bobo – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Thunder Roll – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, Lasix is added and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-06.
Longshot:
6 – Copp – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, and his breeding suggests he will like the grass and his Dam has 3 winners from 6 starters and 2 Turf winners.
Alternate:
9 – Five Star G Man
3 – Bite and Strike
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #4 – El Magnifico
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ None
1 – RED HOT JEANIE – consistent performer – decent work prepping
7 – TRAVAILLE – YES horse – one of two – 3rd up and better ATB
4 – ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY – SIM FAV and by far TOP PAR+ – best jy & tr combo
5 – STEALTHESPOTLIGHT – Top TOTAL PACE – by far best record at the distance
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
3 – MENDELA – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – resume says she should be better in 2nd up
2 – NINTH ISLAND – 3rd up for the first time – boom or bust
5 – FAVOR TO YOU – better EP – cut back in distance helps – drops from NGST 250K
4 – MASCARA – taking a flyer – I’ve noticed Top C ZONE horses do well in all YES races
$0.50 Pick 4: 3/ALL/6/ALL
$22 Win: 3
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ None
4 – CAROL’S MELODY – top 1st rated 2.97 points
2 – STARLIT NITE – 2nd rated 1st timer
7 – SMOOCHIE BOO – 3rd rated 1st time
1 – LIGHT MY FLAME – 2nd race parability – but will need max upside
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,4,7
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 6 races, Early Speed, 2/6 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
6 – LA NORME DE JOUR – YES horse and 2nd race parability – rest are 1st timers
1 – VOST
3 – SEPTEMBER SILVER
2 – MARAUDER
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,3,6
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: Stalkers, 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
9 – HOT MASH– first timers ranked in order w/ works as tie breakers
2 – WINDY HOUSTON
10 – RIVER WAVENEY
6 – AUTHENTIC CHARM
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,6,9,10
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ None
2 – WONDER OF YOU – YES – on the lead – better 5 ways – 1st time making 2 starts in a row – finally healthy for by far the most expensive horse in the race
7 – COMMANDED – winner 2 in a row – with a pair of decent works between races
3 – TRUE PASSION – SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE +1 length – by far Top PAR+
4 – KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW – best races – and it’s not close – come off the bench
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7/7,8,14/2,3,4/4,5,11
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/3,4,7
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 10 Races, 2/10 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
14 – GET ON THE BUS GUS – 2.94 first timer vs all noes and maybes – AE – nice TWY works
7 – SANDBORN – consistent performer – 1st Gelded, 1st Lasix and best published work
8 – RITUAL – MSW dropper – only 3rd race – plenty of potential upside
4 – FROSTY BEER – could be better in 2nd up – not much else to beat
Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Just 2 races – Early Speed, 1 from the Rail and 1 from 4-7
4 – EL MAGNIFICO – TLRSP#+4 and Top TOTA PACE +9 with Top PAR+ – winner 4 in a row
3 – CAROLO RAPIDO – won his only race at Ellis – YES horse with a price
2 – UNLOAD – biggest class dropper from G3 and 3rd up
7 – D’ORO UNBRIDLED – runs well off the bench and works suggest it will happen again
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 10 Races, 2/10 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
5 – MR BOBO – 2nd race parability and then some
11 – VIVALDI – Only YES horse
4 – ALTIPLANO – 2.96 first timer and the rest are noes and maybes
6 – COPP – upped speed figure in 3 races after debut and has solid turf breeding
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,6,11
