Ellis Park Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Ellis Park Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Ellis Park – 7-29-2024
Race 1
4 – One Cool Dude – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Like a Saltshaker – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the sprint races with horses he has entered and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Sir Ollie – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, winning two of the starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
11 – Communication Memo – He finished 4th only beaten by ¾ of a lengths at Ellis Park and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – W W Crazy
10 – All in Sync
Race 2-Female
6 – Lotsandlotsofcandy – She won her last race at Churchill Downs by seven lengths, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 5F workout on Jul-20.
4 – Blue Squall – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning jockey, blinkers are added today and a good 3F workout on Jul-24.
1 – Twirling Good Time – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5- Tenenbaum – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Amy Z
$.50 Pick 4: #4,6/6,8/1,2,4,5,7/1,3,5,6,7– Cost $50.00
Race 3 -Female
8 – Letstalkaboutme – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last two races, drops in class today switches to a high % jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Calathea – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, switches to a high % jockey and can improve at the longer distance.
2 – Yo Leven – She had a disappointing finish in her last race after stumbling at the start, she drops in class today and should improve while returning to a route.
Longshot:
3 – Victorious Nyquist – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Time for Magic
Race 4
5 – Jon’s Street Band – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start, his breeding suggests he will like the grass, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the 1st route race he enters a horse in to compete in.
7 – Sagittarius – He has high % winning trainer and jockey and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Bolt Action – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 28% clip he has high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Rejoinder – He is a first–time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Gotta Have Dreams
Race 5 -Female
5 – Reagan’s Flame – She comes in from Churchill Downs after running 2nd in her last race to try Ellis Park, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and can improve at the shorter distance.
7 – Gloriette – She won her last race at Churchill Downs; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Dark Fury – She won her last race; the rail post is winning at a 19% clip and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Balladry – She won her last race at Churchill Downs; drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Sombra Dorada
8 – End of Innocence
Race 6 -Female
3 – Peanut Gallery – She is a first–time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 -Totally Justified – She drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 23% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race start, can improve at the longer distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Hereforagoodtime – She drops in class today and she switches to a high % jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Quinn’s Promise – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and she has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to a route.
Alternate:
6 – Mad About Marie
10 – Jeweled Destiny
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7,8/1,2,4,6,8 /2,5,6,9,10/8 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
1 – Thunderhawk – He is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 35% of the races with 1st time Starters, his Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has high % winning jockey.
4 – Trew Violence – He finished 3rd in his debut race after being bumped and being in tight at the 1/16 and he has a trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 2nd career start race a horse has and has a high % jockey.
2 – Mesero – He is a first–time starter whose Sire wins 19% of the races with 1st time Starters, his Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and 1 stakes winner and he has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Smooth N Silky – He is a first–time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 8
9 -Tapit Shoes – He has won the only start that he has on the turf and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Out of Deductions – He has finished in the money in four out of his last five races, winning two of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Tatanka – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, winning four of the starts and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – American Mayhem – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on Jul-23.
Race 9 -Female
8 – Pendulum – She has finished in the money in six out of her seven career races, winning one of the starts and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Big Trouble – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Liuzza – She drops in class today; her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Autumn Chill – She drops in class today; her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has produced 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning jockey.
Bet: $10.00 Win & $14.00 Place: # 8
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing –9th Race
8 – Pendulum
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 9 Races, Early Speed, 1 w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ None
6 – BORN FLAWLESS – blowout win in last, runs well in bunches, maintenance works and 2nd up
7 – SIR OLLIE -resume says he should be as good, most likely better in 2nd off the sidelines
4 – ONE COOL DUDE – classic 3rd start off the sidelines – right distance 4/3-0-1
11 – COMMUNICATION MEMO – much better pace early in his last – distance 7/0-3-3
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 9 Races, Early Speed, 1 w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ None
5 – TENENBAUM – back class is there – work on June 30 – 4f in 47.2 – says we could see it today
6 – LOTSANDLOTSOFCANDY – just needs to repeat her last race
4 – BLUE SQUALL – CV says she should step forward today to a level that’s good enough to win
1 – TWIRLING GOOD TIME – signs of life in last, rewind to her debut would be an easy winner
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
2 – YO LEVEN – got to take a crack at beating the even money fav – run back to the debut would give her a strong chance
8 – LETSTALKABOUTME – typical race wins this for fun versus almost all of these
6 – CALATHEA – normal 2nd start betterment and she could pull off the upset too
1 – DREAM ON STORMY – rail bonus, big early speed advantage – steal it w2w on light fractions and it could happen
Race 4: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 11 Races, Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Struggle, 8+ Big Bonus, not as good as Rail
1 – BOLT ACTION – has the huge rail bonus – MSW dropper those average race wins this at better than 5/2 odds
5 – JON’S STREET BAND – funky start in debut, normal 2nd career start improvement puts him as a real challenge
8 – SIX PACK MUMBLES – looks to be the better of the 1st time starters
4 – REJOINDER – tr William Cowans wins at 32% with first timers – 0/10 on grass – gamblers fallacy – he’s due on turf
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – GLORIETTE – probable pacesetter, making 3rd up start for the first time, solid work between starts
5 – REAGAN’S FLAME – another making the 3rd start for the 1st time – a finally healthy horse?
6 – SOMBRA DORADA – another that should challenge for the front and just needs to add to her second career start
8 – END OF INNOCENCE – dominated in her last, her best three workouts since – lights on horse
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed, Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Penalty
8 – HEREFORAGOODTIME – tough start in debut, better start and he should close this out
7 – TOTALLY JUSTIFIED – just needs enough second race improvement to win
4 – TAKE CHARGE MILADY – best of the 1st timers points wise with 2.9
3 – PEANUT GALLERY – Brad Cox/Florent 1st timer – solid works and breeding
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
15 – SNAP CALL – 3 of 3 first timer – July 12th work at Ellis 5f in 59.3 for Steve Asmussen
6 – SMOOTH N SILKY – 2.8 firster with back bullet in May – 4f in 47.4
4 – TREW VIOLENCE – only experienced horse and 2nd race improvement is enough
1 – THUNDERHAWK – hot rail, solid breeding, works and trainer
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 4 Races, Stalkers, 0 w2w – PP: 2 from rail, 1 from 4-7, and 1 from 8+
12 – KITODAN – almost closed it out at this level in last, more distance today is the difference
2 – TATANKA – just missed at this level last out and should be a good, better in 2nd up
9 – TAPIT SHOES – definitely been facing the toughest competition
6 – AMERICAN MAYHEM – Ellis 4/2-1-1 on the grass and can win from front or back
Race 9: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 11 Races, Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Big Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Struggle, 8+ Big Bonus, not as good as Rail
3 – BIG TROUBLE – Left Arrow, just missed last out, top TOTAL PACE+7
8 – PENDULUM – should be closing and be better in the 2nd
9 – AUTUMN CHILL – gets a weight break and first Lasix as a 3yo – faced better at 2
7 – SARIR – Comes in from Toga with ES for Welsey Ward, cannot overlook on turf
