Ellis Park Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Ellis Park on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park
Ellis Park Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Soulful Tara – She steadied hard, hopped heels at the start of the last race so I will ignore that race and she have a bullet 4F workout (Jul-21).
6 – Royal Blood – She drops-in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – The Princess Says – She drops-in class today; she may improve while returning to the dirt and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
4 – Ziggzappa – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and she has a trainer who wins 18% of the races in dirt starts.
Alternate:
2 – Insightful Miss
7 – I Gotta Bolt
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,6/3,4,6
Race 2
3 – Punctuality – He won his last race at Ellis Park easily and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Attest– He won his last race at Belterra Park and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Magna Ruler – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
5 – Get Through – He drops-in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Born Flawless
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race #3– 3rd race #1,3,4 – 4th race #6 – 5th #1,2,3,4,5,8
Race 3
4 – Camp Daddy – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a good 3F workout (Jul-23).
3 – Charlie Whiskey – He won his last race at Ellis Park, and he has a trainer who wins 50% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 5-0-2).
1 – Bolt Above – He has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer, and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Uncle Berley – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today, may improve while returning to dirt improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning trainer who wins 51% of the races in the second race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
6 – Swimmingwithsharks
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,4/1,3,4/1,2,3,4
Race 4
6 – Priddis – She has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Set the Pace – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
3 – Supertaleofhoudini – She finished 2nd in her last two races and drops-in class today.
Longshot:
5 – Hashtag Winner – She won her last race at Ellis Park and drops in class today.
Bet: – $1.00 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,3,5 – $20.00 Win # 6
Race 5
4 – Mugatu – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has four bullet workouts in a row.
8 – Pure Poetry – He is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has won four out of five races.
3 – Casper – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass, has a high % winning jockey and has a good 4F workout on July-20th.
Longshot:
1 – Depiction – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5- Mighty Kai
Bet: $3.00 Turf Pick 3: 4/2,4,7/5 – $10.00 Win: #4
Race 6
6 – Musical Diva – She is a first-time starter whose has a Sire who wins 16% of the races with 1st time starters, has a Dam who has 2 winners from 3 starters and 1 stakes winner, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and has a good 5F workout on July-22.
3 – Little Miss Priss – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and has a trainer/jockey combo who in last 14 days has finished in the money in four out of four starts, winning two.
2 – Miss Escapade – She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 17% with 1st time starters and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Longshot:
12 – Legacy Defined – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters, and she has two good workouts in a row.
Alternate:
4 – Auraculous
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th #2,3,4,6,12 – 7th race # 2 – 8th race # 2,3,5 – 9th # 4,5
Race 7
2 – Lemon Bomb – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 33% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse run in and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Boltoro – She keeps knocking at the door running 2nd vs tougher in her last race and drops-in class today.
4 – Okay Fine – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
10 – Mo Blooms – She drops-in class today, her breeding suggests she will like the grass, her Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 5 Turf winners, and she has a bullet 4F workout on July-21.
Alternate:
11 – Jungle Cat
12 – Milieu
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2/2,3,4,5,7,9
Race 8
3 – Rider’s Special – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Lupo’s Legacy – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a good 4F workout on July-21 and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Backside Buzz – He has finished in the money in four out of six races this year and drops in class today.
Longshot:
9 – Midaswellrun – He has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of dirt starts.
Alternate:
7 – Supremely
4 – Stand for Freedom
Bet: None
Race 9
5 – Brown Liquor Man – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner and is Lasix added.
4 – Simply Jack – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 20% of the starts when bringing a horse back from a 46-90day break.
7 – Drama Critic – He drops in class today and his best turf speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
Longshot:
2 – Texcoco – He drops in class today; his Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and he has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 5-0-2).
Bet: $10.00 Win: #5 – $1.00 Exacta: 5/2,4,7
Rich’s Rank’s
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races – Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ No Wins
5 – THE PRINCESS SAYS – most back class and MSW 120K dropper
1 – SOULFUL TARA – was well bet in debut – claimed bullet and go
6 – ROYAL BLOOD – another MSW dropper, not the best angle for tr Carlo Vaccarezza 0-19
7 – I GOTTA BOLT – tough call over the 4, but tie TLRSP, extra distance helps and 3rd up
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,5/1,5,6/1,4,5,6,7
Race 2: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 14 Races – Stalkers – 7% w2w – Outside 7 In and No Winners 8+
4 – MAGNA RULER – 4 SP# increases with TLRSP# and drops in class in 2nd after a layoff
3 – PUNCTUALITY – 3rd after a layoff following a huge win, upped last 2 SP#s
6 – ATTEST – upped SP# in last two post debut, lone turf didn’t go too well
2 – PAID IN FULL – SIM Fav – held speed longer in last, but fractions were a little dull
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,4/2/3,5,6/3,4,5,8,10
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races – Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ No Wins
2 – UNCLE BERLEY – Tie TLRSP# and drops in class -tr Brittany Vanden Berg’s #s are crazy here 51% 2nd after a claim and 40% in 2nd race
3 – CHARLIE WHISKEY – coming off the MCL win with Z pattern, cut back could help
4 – CAMP DADDY – better ATB in last at this level, nice works between races
1 – BOLT ABOVE – most consistent horse in the race, some fast works getting prepped for first start after Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,4/2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Tactical Speed – 21% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Under Par Inside Out
5 – HASHTAG WINNER – TLRSP# and drops – most fast faster fractions last out
6 – PRIDDIS – winner 2 in a row, distance is right 5/4-1-0 – fractions were a little slower last out
3 – SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI – much better EP in first half last out in first at EP – drops today vs many of the same
1 – SET THE PACE – Overlay, tops combo of EP and C-Zone
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6/3,5,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 14 Races – Stalkers – 7% w2w – Outside 7 In and No Winners 8+8 – PURE POETRY – tie top pedigree with Brad Cox and Gerardo Corrales winner 4/7 together
3 – CASPER – another with strong breeding for grass – probably the best works getting ready
10 – BRIE’S MISSION – the other to tie for the top turf pedigree, decent works pattern
4 – MUGATU – had a lot of improvement in 2nd race and first on grass
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifeta: 3,8,10/3,4,5,8,10/3,8,10
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: 14 Races – Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and 8+ Bias, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair
6 – MUSICAL DIVA – $350k horse for Tr Brad Cox who has by far best debut numbers in this field
5 – CONDON CANDY – a bunch of good works getting ready, bullet and go
3 – LITTLE MISS PRISS – some really good works and consistency leading up to debut
2 – MISS ESCAPADE – looking at the July 16 ELP work of 47.2 from the gate
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6/2,4,8,10/3,6/3,5,7
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races all Stalkers/Closers – 1 winner 2/3, 4-7, 8+
2 – LEMON BOMB – likely to improve in 2nd up, two seconds by a neck in both on grass
10 – MO BLOOMS – strong turf breeding, decent effort in debut against blazing fractions, bullet work since
4 – OKAY FINE – TLRSP# and drops – 29F works since last, should be ready
8 – CATMINT – 1st timer for Brad Cox, once again teaming up with Gerardo Corrales
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs: 6 Races – Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ No Wins
6 – ELI’S PROMISE – much faster last out, better ATB – a bunch of nice Ellis works since
3 – RIDER’S SPECIAL – last race a little better early and late with faster early fractions
9 – MIDASWELLRUN – TLRSP# – better ATB in last with better times
8 – MISSIN CURFEW – going to tale a shot in 2nd up, has EP and his strongest published work fastest of 123 at CD on July 22nd, bullet and go
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 3,6/3,4,5,7
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races all Stalkers/Closers – 1 winner 2/3, 4-7, 8+
7 – DRAMA CRITIC – top pedigree, takes a drop, better numbers last out
3 – SPUNS SON – missed by a neck at this level last out
5 – BROWN LIQUOR MAN – TLRSP# in debut, speed and faded, 1st Lasix could be big help here
4 – SIMPLY JACK – class dropper. Lone 5 yo vs mostly 3 yo and a couple of 4 yo
