Ellis Park Picks Live Stream – June 29, 2023 – Horse Racing Today

Race 1: 5 Furlongs – Bias: 3 Races – 100% Speed – 2/3 w2w – PP: All 4-7

5 – CAN GROUP – double bullet and go – and some other good works before

6 – GOTTANEEDFORSPEED – bullet and go with steady work pattern

4 – OZONE – $375k horse – decent works and top pedigree score

3 – MAGICAL MONARCH – very consistent work pattern

Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Key Box: 5/3,4,6

Race 2: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 5 Races – 100% Speed – 3 w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 a Touch Under Par, 8+ None

1 – PADDINGTON – bet down to 5/2 in debut – slow start – bullet work since, MSW dropper

3 – GO CATS – bad starts in both races – maybe tried to fix with gelding – would like to see some 3f works

4 – LUNA VIEJA – another MSW dropper, could be better in round two off the bench, if he can run back two and repeat Keeneland effort, wins

6 – SANT’ ANTIMO – scratched into this spot

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/1,5,6/3/1,2,3

Race 3: 1 ¼ Miles Turf – Bias: 1 Race – Early Speed – not w2w – PP: 2/3

1 – SRI LANKA – might be better in 2^nd after a layoff especially after a blistering 4f work on 46.4 June 22

6 – SOUTHAMPTON DOCK – I like these type of horses, improved speed figure in every race (3) since debut, steady improvement, showed speed for the first time last out in first route on grass, going to have more stamina today in 2nd up with two works since June 8th race

5 – SPUN OATS – late pace in last was on par with high level horses, major Z pattern in last, almost like jockey thought something was wrong mid race

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,5,6/3/1,2,3/2,3,48

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 58% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias – 2-7 Fair, 8+ No Wins

3 – GOOD HEART – better ATB with some blazing EP#s in first sprint and fractions – at EP

5 – MISSIN CURFEW – 2 sp# increases, will try to go gate to wire, tends to fade late, 17f of works in June suggest he should be fit

1 – RIDER’S SPECIAL – benefits from high win rate rail, will try to close on speed, not sure cutting back in distance helps, might be a 7f-1m horse

2 – CONSTITUTIONAL LAW – top Total Pace horse with +6 LP edge, should be mid pack and ready to strike if the 3 and 5 burn each other

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Superfecta: 3/1,2,5/1,2,5/ALL

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 7 Races – Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Little Penalty, 8+ No Wins 

3 – APPEAL DENIED – last race wasn’t as bad as it looks – early fractions were probably too fast for him, back to a level where his numbers fit in 3^rd up

1 – MIDASWELLRUN – better 2/4 EP#s in last and similar fractions at 6 ½ v 6f, 3^rd up

2 – AMANI’S EAGLE – 1^st off the claim, 27% for trainer Jason Barkley, two works including a bullet since last effort

5 – EMPERADOR – tough call over the 6, but better SIM for EP, C-Zone and Total Pace

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,3/1,3/1,2,3,5,6

Race 6: 1 ½ Miles Turf – Bias: No Races

4 – O CAPTAIN -SIM Favorite with strong C-Zone, should be forwardly placed.

8 – JARREAU – usually runs well off the bench like today, has 23f good works since his last on May 13, including a bullet and go

3 – IDRATHERBEBLESSED – lone PC horse, gets a big EP edge +9 with all the scratches

2 – ALWAYS ABOVE – has by far the most back class of the rest

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,8/2,3,4,6/4,6,9/4,12

Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Under Par

6 – JUDO – TLRSP#, 1^st off the claim for tr Jordan Blair – 29% winner, two works since, could be pacesetter

2 – WHAT’S UP DOC –  never OTM in four races, all at a mile – a pair of 2nds in two at Ellis – brilliant LP

3 – DEPUTY CONNECT – better ATB in getting MSW win, tr Brad Cox follows maiden win at 30%, very consistent performer

4 – CAN’T HUSH THIS – at times has excellent EP and MID pace numbers, if he runs to either, strong chance to go w2w

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,6/2,6/2,3,4,5,6

Race 8: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: 5 Races – 100% Speed – 3 w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 a Touch Under Par, 8+ None

6 – PEAK POPULARITY – Tie TLRSP# winning MSW 120K for tr Chad Brown – Brown ran 2 so far at Ellis – won both

4 – MAGIC BUBBLES – Tyler G here instead of the ML fav #5, beat the 5 last out, has much better EP last out – and at time Stakes Level LP

9 – BRU NA BOINNE – Left Arrow horse – should be fit with a lot of works getting prepped for first race since March 25

5 – SHE’S LOOKIN LUCKY – lone P horse, C-Zone says she should get a trip to her favor

Race 9: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 8 Races – Early Speed, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Big Ding, 8+ Bonus

12 – ANNA’S ARABESQUE – has a +19 Total Pace Edge and is lone P versus a lot that haven’t done much

4 – PROUD MARY – first time starter without a lot to beat, last 3f work hints at potential early pop

2 – SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL – the pair on grass are better than anything any have done so far

8 – STEEL RACER – going to take a shot here, shows plenty of EP through first two, held speed longer in 2^nd race, should have more stamina in 2^nd up and 3^rd career race